handicapping 101 PART4 "WORKS"

[hoovesupsideyourhead]

many here are very good cappers.steve/andy are at the pro level.should a capper use "works" to make a determination of recent fitness? some trainers have very structured regimen when coming up to a race ..mott is a 7 days apart guy..there are however certin patterns ill look for in diffrent types of races. take a look at race 7 weds at gulf a turf event .what do you see that might be a "tell"..

knowing where the work was done and how it was done is very important,unless you put no wieght on this..

the time and place along with the notation "h" handily "g" gate "b" breezing
denotes the way it was done..now this is no exact science..at major meets the drf does a pretty good job..but at some places the trainer calls in his own works.. ..on some turf courses the "d" dogs is put in basicly running on the outside of the turf course as not to mess it up..
the number next to the work is the horses ranking from those that worked at that dist that day..also abit telling..

in gs there are a bunch of diffrent training centers and farms and courses..
so its tough..calder the course itself/gulf stream on course/ payson park is deep /palm meadows/palmbeach downs..

finding what "works" for you is a good part of the puzzle..


some trainers use exercise riders that can go 160lbs. and unless your at the track you wont know..

[MISTERGEE]

having some knowledge of the accuracy and validity of works I personally would put very little if any of my handicapping decisions into viewing recent works

[herkhorse]

When running at a new track, I like it when a horse has a couple of works on the track. Always prefer the "B", over the "H", but as far as the times go, I don't pay too much attention. KNS is a good example. I guess it helps to know a bit about the trainer.

[hoovesupsideyourhead]

i think from the works .that pp 5 play the favorite looks good for a first timer..and of course the 4 distorted lady..

two things i like in the 5 is the gate works..and the one on the turf..

[Bobby Fischer]

Use everything you can get your hands on.

You have to make an appraisal of each bit of information.

It helps to know the style of the trainer and the horse.


Before the big races you also want to know the public's opinion of any "headline works". Anything perceived as a big negative or positive should be appraised.

Public Overreactions
People criticized Larry Jones when he gave Hard Spun a perfect work before the 2007 Derby. "Clockers" said he looked terrible late in the 5 furlong work. - I watch the video of his work and he went out for 3 furlongs and then cruised out another furlong or two. He looked impressive and powerful. Considering he needed to get out of the gate in the Derby, it could only help.
People worried about a slow work from Street Sense 5furlongs in about 1:03 or so... -Nobody looks at the fractions where he finishes in 11.5 seconds and "gallops out" another in about 12!
Or Curlins winter work goes in about 1:04 and everyone is depressed...-Not only is the fact that Asmussen works his horses slow ignored, but you come to find out that it was part of a two minute lick!

The Wolfson longshot at GP Monday was a rare instance of works really tipping you off about fitness. Even then he probably was too cheap without seeing all the FTS and Layoff horses and knowing that he was the speed.

[SentToStud]

Workouts are important but unless you watch them live and know what to watch for, evaluating a workout as good or otherwise is not overrated, it's impossible.

I look for frequency and timing to determine a sense of readiness. That's about it. First-time starters can be a bit different, but that's not my thing.

The only time I place significant positive value on works is for a 2nd time starter who has dirt route pedigree and sprinted in his first race. If I see a positive work pattern after the first start consisting of 3 seemingly good works and the horse is entered back 25-35 days or so later at the more appropriate distance, then I get interested.

For me, I'm far more interested the chance to downgrade a likely young favorite due to a lack of work. Go back and look at the work/on-track activity of that "case-study" horse, Jet Setting. That horse was running back 21 days (with no interim work) after a bad-start/good finish return from layoff with a race/work pattern that had red flag all over it. As a young 3 yo, the trainer could have waited another 13 days or so for the same race with an opportunity to gate work. The decision to run back quicker with no works is a strong sign of questionable soundness.

Horses like Jet Setting win a lot of races. But at 4/5, she was either a pass or a bet against.

[blackthroatedwind]

Jet Setting finished second to a better horse. I don't see her as a good example at all. She finished behind the only horse that could beat her on paper going in.

If she was a bad bet at 4:5 it was because she was facing someone of perhaps equal, or more, talent who's only question mark was the layoff. The horse that won the race had lost the Schylerville at Saratoga by a head bob.

[Kasept]

Point of clarification on Matt's threadstart intro before commenting...

There's a big difference between my role as a 'public handicapper' and Andy's as a professional horseplayer. Andy, like anyone playing full time, puts more work into his analysis and preparation than I can remotely approach. It ain't close. His job is being prepared to wager to earn his living. It requires full time attention. My full time is devoted to preparing the radio show, my food consultancy, the Website and the Stable. I handicap as much and as best as I can, but cannot do the work like Andy does...

As to workouts.. I am most interested in patterns to indicate soundness. When did a horse return to the track after a race? 10 days? 2 weeks? A month? Were there gaps in a layoff horse's works after a break? etc.. Don't like seeing a horse miss 2-3 works somewhere after being started back towards racing...

I love young horses getting works for the distance at which they are debuting... Love fast blowouts for sprinters... Love 7f works...

[GPK]

I look at spacing more than anything. Hard to place a ton of emphasis on the actual times recorded, as I don't think they are always correct.