Wednesday night thoughts on Derby

[somerfrost]

Here is what I see on Wednesday, subject to my mind changing a few times:
post
1) Sedgefield...two wins lifetime, one on turf, one on Poly, no stake wins, draws the "death post". I think this one's future is on the grass....100-1 here!
2) Curlin...3 lifetime starts, didn't run until this February. This may be the favorite but look for him to be bounced around in the run to the first turn and never recover...look elsewhere!
3) Zanjero...no stake wins, three races, three 3rds this year, does have an Alw win at CD, other on poly. Stablemate of Curlin...could get minor part.
4) Storm In May...qualifies on angles but appears slow at a distance, both dirt wins were sprints...doubtful factor at 10f.
5) Imawildandcrazyguy...14pts in DP, no stake win, doesn't belong in the Derby.
6) Cowtown Cat...qualifies on angles, seems to be an improving colt, won last two...could be a factor if fast enough.
7) Street Sense...BCJ winner with only 2 starts this year, he loves CD (won BCJ here), appears to back up a step on poly, been working extremely well...my second choice.
8) Hard Spun...RAN Curse, last race 3/24. worked 5f in 57.3 on 4/30...that's hard to figure, many are picking him...I'll pass!
9) Liquidity...no stake win, only win a maiden...doesn't belong here.
10) Teufelsberg...qualifies on angles, daddy didn't like distance, could be a pace factor, don't see him around in stretch.
11) Bwana Bull...5th in last beaten over 5 lengths. Northern Cal runner, these usually are a step below.
12) Nobiz Like Shobiz...qualifies on angles, nice DP, never ran a bad one, two losses both less than a length...my pick!
13) Sam P....RAN Curse, no stake win. No wins this year...appears a step behind.
14) Scat Daddy...RAN Curse, didn't fire in BCJ, will get action. Gut call here...pass.
15) Tiago...Giacomo's brother, woke up last with Smith. Only 4 lifetime starts...29-1 in last, those seldom step up in class and win...pass.
16) Circular Quay...two starts this year, last way back on 3/10...question soundness and conditioning! Does appear to like CD (3/2-1-0), consider for minor part.
17) Stormello...RAN Curse, two starts this year, don't see this guy at all.
18) Any Given Saturday...qualifies on angles, two of three wins on poly but seems to have improved this year, minor player from here!
19) Dominican...16 pts in DP, two starts this year, all three LT wins on poly, I actually like this guy but post is a killer, possibly minor player.
20) Great Hunter...RAN Curse, two starts this year, 20 post...too much to overcome, pass.

Plays:
Nobiz (12)...win
Street Sense (7)...win & Ex with Nobiz
3,6,16,18,19...exotics


This is what it looked like to me last night...now I wait for something to change my mind...