Sunshine Millions Value

[randallscott35]

A randall sighting in the selection thread? Unheard of.

Anyway, this day has quite a bit of value to it so lets take a look at some races where you will find the most. I'll just stick to the stakes races.

At SA first
Race 2- I don't like this race and I have no feel for it so I am passing.
Race 3- This race has bomb written all over it. Huge top for Take D Tour, Friel's is fast and 10-1 but will go off nowhere close to that. I think the horse with the most upside is Pufffectly Fitting. I would say 40-1 or higher is likely on this horse especially with no scratches. I expect her to hit the board.
Race 4-No thanks, the ones in here make sense, I would lean towards Areyoutalkingtome but not by much.
Race 5-I'll try and beat Lava Man with El Don in here. Jones is underrated and the I think he can work out the trip in here. On the numbers Lava should cruise.

At GP
Race 7-Felonious Monk makes sense here and at anything over 15-1 is a must play in every exotic and some on top. Stewart is good in these spots and I like the horses style for the pace scenario. Based on previous Millions days, it seems the track doesn't play as front running as normal. Hope so.
Race 8-You have to play Grecian Lover in here. Why is this one 10-1 and the other Jerkens 7-2? I'd take Grecian in this spot every time. Good value.
Race 9-I've got a softspot for Memorette even though she's a bit slow on thoros. Maybe Miss Shop to spice it up a bit. Rich in Spirit is consistent and deserves to be the favorite. Small play on the formers.
Race 10-I'm throwing out Sweetnorthernsaint. I expect an X in here and I realize I'm in the minority which is fine. The 2 keys are Silver Wagon and Texcess. I'd love to get crazier but I don't see it. If Silver stretches well, he should win this, but I think Texcess is more likely. I'll play both and a decent exacta box and a both in the top 2 with a wheel in 3rd and maybe even fourth leaving out SNS from all tickets.

Good Luck All.

[Scav]

Originally Posted by randallscott35

Race 10-I'm throwing out Sweetnorthernsaint. I expect an X in here and I realize I'm in the minority which is fine. The 2 keys are Silver Wagon and Texcess. I'd love to get crazier but I don't see it. If Silver stretches well, he should win this, but I think Texcess is more likely. I'll play both and a decent exacta box and a both in the top 2 with a wheel in 3rd and maybe even fourth leaving out SNS from all tickets.

Good Luck All.

So all that PM talk about drinking, you need to put the bottle down. NO WAY this horse X's tomorrow, not a chance.....at a maximum he off's to the 2-3 range, which still beats these

[randallscott35]

Originally Posted by Scav

So all that PM talk about drinking, you need to put the bottle down. NO WAY this horse X's tomorrow, not a chance.....at a maximum he off's to the 2-3 range, which still beats these

Haha. I love it. I was not drinking tonight at all Scavs. We'll see tomorrow. Always had a soft spot for this horse, but my rooting doesn't get in the way of my handicapping. Let's revisit this thread after the race tomorrow.

[gales0678]

Originally Posted by randallscott35

A randall sighting in the selection thread? Unheard of.

Anyway, this day has quite a bit of value to it so lets take a look at some races where you will find the most. I'll just stick to the stakes races.

At SA first
Race 2- I don't like this race and I have no feel for it so I am passing.
Race 3- This race has bomb written all over it. Huge top for Take D Tour, Friel's is fast and 10-1 but will go off nowhere close to that. I think the horse with the most upside is Pufffectly Fitting. I would say 40-1 or higher is likely on this horse especially with no scratches. I expect her to hit the board.
Race 4-No thanks, the ones in here make sense, I would lean towards Areyoutalkingtome but not by much.
Race 5-I'll try and beat Lava Man with El Don in here. Jones is underrated and the I think he can work out the trip in here. On the numbers Lava should cruise.

At GP
Race 7-Felonious Monk makes sense here and at anything over 15-1 is a must play in every exotic and some on top. Stewart is good in these spots and I like the horses style for the pace scenario. Based on previous Millions days, it seems the track doesn't play as front running as normal. Hope so.
Race 8-You have to play Grecian Lover in here. Why is this one 10-1 and the other Jerkens 7-2? I'd take Grecian in this spot every time. Good value.
Race 9-I've got a softspot for Memorette even though she's a bit slow on thoros. Maybe Miss Shop to spice it up a bit. Rich in Spirit is consistent and deserves to be the favorite. Small play on the formers.
Race 10-I'm throwing out Sweetnorthernsaint. I expect an X in here and I realize I'm in the minority which is fine. The 2 keys are Silver Wagon and Texcess. I'd love to get crazier but I don't see it. If Silver stretches well, he should win this, but I think Texcess is more likely. I'll play both and a decent exacta box and a both in the top 2 with a wheel in 3rd and maybe even fourth leaving out SNS from all tickets.

Good Luck All.

Yup Randall - watch Felonious Monk - he s/b VERY live here

[Hickory Hill Hoff]

DT Contest wk.#4 "play of the day"...the "Monk"

[randallscott35]

I actually have cooled on Monk and may not use him. I hate the value killing aspect of a West Point horse(didn't catch that until late last night) and something tells me Mitchell's inside horse will be running big.

[gales0678]

Randall - he will still be a nice px here

[randallscott35]

Originally Posted by Scav

So all that PM talk about drinking, you need to put the bottle down. NO WAY this horse X's tomorrow, not a chance.....at a maximum he off's to the 2-3 range, which still beats these

There is no feeling good about getting this sort of thing right, when you end up using the wrong horses in the race anyway. The race was slow. He ran a 5 or 6 or worse. But I lost the race anyway so who cares.

[The Bid]

Miss Shop was the bet of the day. I absolutely smashed her. I see you liked her too, you mentioned the cold exacta, nice spot.

[Scav]

Originally Posted by randallscott35

There is no feeling good about getting this sort of thing right, when you end up using the wrong horses in the race anyway. The race was slow. He ran a 5 or 6 or worse. But I lost the race anyway so who cares.

yeah, pretty disappointing but the front wraps again cautioned me to chill out from originial insaneness that I was contemplating