9/7: Kentucky Downs (Day 4; 4th-10th)

[Kasept]

KENTUCKY DOWNS


POST-SCRATCHES


4th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 1m-T (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #10 Baby Voss 7-2 3rd
Best Value: #3 Miranda Rights 8-1 8th
Next Best: #4 Spirit Maker 5-2 5th
Exotics Use: #7 He's Got Swagger 8-1 4th


5th: MSW, 2yo, 6.5f-T (P3, DD)

Best Value: #6 Candy Corn 6-1 8th
Next Best: #1 Act of Mutiny 4-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #7 Committee of One 3-1 2nd
Super Add: #5 Palm Tree 10-1 WON ($10.34)


6th: ALW/C, F&M-3+, 6.5f-T (P5, P3, DD)

SCR 1-2-3-6-10-11

Most Likely: #4 Oeuvre WON ($2.72)
Best Value: #12 Twirled 4th
Next Best: #8 Souper Munnings 3rd
Exotics Use: #9 Last Leaf 2nd


7th: MSW, F&M-3+, 12.5f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Boltoro, whose half brother Deep Strike runs in the 5th, gets the Biscuit back on and has run a couple of races lately that can win this. Dixie Supreme and Robin Sage are double digits and very viable for any pay slot. Wildly competitive affair..

Best Value: #7 Boltoro 10-1 2nd
Next Best: #2 Sri Lanka 9-2 8th
Exotics Use: #9 Dixie Supreme 15-1 11th
Super Add: #12 Robin Sage 12-1 WON ($50.36)


P4 Grid:

4: 3-4-7-10 (A), - (B), - (C)
5: 1-6 (A), 5-7 (B), - (C)
6: 4 (A), - (B), 8-12 (C)
7: 2-7-9 (A), 4-10-12 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x4x1x6 = 96 x .50 = $48
All A's: 4x2x1x3 = 24 x .50 = $12
Backup: (A-A-C-A): 4x2x2x3 = 48 x .50 = $24 (8-12 in 6th)


8th: OC/N2X, 3+, 7f-T (P3, DD)

SCR 3-6-7-12-13-16 which gets dangerous #14 Chasing the Crown (5-2) in to the field. Ed Seltzer's Axthelm returns to Franklin and Saffie has won 2 already at the meet. (Actually is 8/2-1-2 thus far)..

Best Value: #8 Axthelm 6-1 5th
Next Best: #4 Fair Dinkum 3-1 8th
Exotics Use: #14 Chasing the Crown 5-2 2nd
Super Add: #9 Underdressed 8-1 3rd


9th: One Dreamer-R, F&M-3+, 1m-70y (DD)

Most likely: #5 Viareggio 5-1 5th
Next Best: #7 For the Flag 3-1 2nd
Best Value: #2 Present Moment 20-1 6th
Exotics Use: #8 Sister Lou Ann 6-1 WON ($10.46)


10th: MSW, 2yo, 1m-T (Hi-5)

Tough finale with 5 going to lawn for first time (6-7-8-9-11) and McPeek debuting I'm a Mess, American Pharoah out of Julia Tuttle, so a half to Tom's D'Etat..

Most Likely: #3 Judgement 7-2 3rd
Best Value: #8 Foreseen 20-1 6th
Next Best: #1 Yatta 3-1 WON ($7.12)
Exotics Use: #10 Joke Master 12-1 10th


P5 Grid:

6: 4 (A), - (B), - (C)
7: 2-7-9-12 (A), 3-4-5-10 (B), - (C)
8: 4-8-12 (A), - (B), - (C)
9: 5 (A), - (B), 7 (C)
10: 1-3-8 (A), 6-10 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 1x8x3x1x5 = 120 x .50 = $60
All A's: 1x4x3x1x3 = 36 x .50 = $18
Backup (A-A-A-C-A): 1x4x3x1x3 = 36 x .50 = $18 (7 in 9th)


P4 Grid:

7: 2-7-9-12 (A), 3-4-5-10 (B), - (C)
8: 4-8-12 (A), - (B), - (C)
9: 5 (A), - (B), 7 (C)
10: 1-3-8 (A), 6-10 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 8x3x1x5 = 120 x .50 = $60
All A's: 4x3x1x3 = 36 x .50 = $18
Backup (A-A-C-A): 4x3x1x3 = 36 x .50 = $18 (7 in 9th)


Good luck!
Steve