9/10: Kentucky Downs (5th-12th)

[Kasept]

KENTUCKY DOWNS


POST-SCRATCHES


5th: Mint Million (G3), 3+, 1m-T (P5, P3, DD)

Struggled with this. Feels like any one of these are possible..

Most Likely: #2 Pixelate 5-1 6th
Best Value: #10 Cavalry Charge 12-1 8th
Next Best: #4 Somelikeithotbrown 9-2 WON ($6.60)
Exotics Use: #5 Kentucky Ghost 12-1 7th


6th: OC/N2X, 3+, 12.5f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #10 Mud Pie 6-1: 2nd Seeking annual KD win for 3rd year in a row..
Best Value: #5 Current 15-1 4th
Next Best: #8 McLovin 3-1 WON ($16.84)
Exotics Use: #7 Decision Maker 10-1 3rd


7th: MSW, 2yo-F, 6f-T (P3, DD)

I've been doing this since 2002 and I don't ever remember picking 4 horses at the same price, let alone at 12-1..

Best Value: #7 Lady Baron 12-1 2nd
Next Best: #4 Southampton Dock 12-1 10th
Exotics Use: #9 Goldblooded 12-1 8th
Super Add: #15 Dulcia 12-1 WON ($15.66)


8th: Ladies Turf (G3), F&M-3+, 1m-T (All GS P5, P3, DD)

Best Value: #3 Hendy Woods 9-2 6th
Next Best: #8 Princess Grace 3-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #1 Dalika 2-1 WON ($7.08)
Super Add: #10 Henrietta Topham 20-1 4th


9th: Turf Sprint (G2), 3+, 6f-T (All GS P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #5 Arzak 9-2 6th
Next Best: #12 Arrest Me Red 9-5 3rd
Best Value: #9 Front Run the Fed 15-1 4th
Exotics Use: #2 Chewing Gum 5-1 8th


P5 Grid:

5: 2-4-10 (A), - (B), 1-5-6-7 (C)
6: 10 (A), 5 (B), - (C)
7: 4-7 (A), - (B), - (C)
8: 1-3-8 (A), - (B), - (C)
9: 5-12 (A), 2-9 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x2x2x3x4 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 3x1x2x3x2 = 36 x .50 = $18
Backup (1-5-7-8 in 5th): 4x1x2x3x2 = 48 x .50 = $24


P4 Grid:

6: 5-10 (A), 7-8 (B), - (C)
7: 4-7 (A), - (B), - (C)
8: 1-3-8 (A), - (B), 10 (C)
9: 5-12 (A), 2-9 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x2x3x4 = 96 x .50 = $48
All A's: 2x2x3x2 = 24 x .50 = $12
Backup (10 in 8th): 2x2x1x2 = 8 x .50 = $4


10th: KY Turf Cup (G2), 3+, 12f-T (P3, DD)

Best Value: #10 Another Mystery 15-1 3rd
Next Best: #4 Arklow 7-2 6th
Exotics Use: #8 Gufo 7-5 2nd
Super Add: #6 Glynn County 30-1 7th


11th: Ladies Sprint (G3), F&M-3+, 6.5f-T (DD)

Most Likely: #11 In Good Spirits 6-1 7th
Next Best: #10 Campanelle 8-5 WON ($3.56)
Best Value: #2 Violenza 30-1 10th
Exotics Use: #6 Toby's Heart 15-1 12th


12th: Franklin-Simpson (G2), 3yo, 6.5f-T (Hi-5)

Most Likely: #6 Big Invasion 8-5 3rd
Best Value: #10 Asymmetric 8-1 4th
Next Best: #7 Run Curtis Run 6-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #4 Heaven Street 30-1 DH-5th
Hi-5 Play: #5 All in Sync 10-1 9th


P5 Grid:

8: 1-3-8 (A), - (B), 10 (C)
9: 5-12 (A), 2-9 (B), - (C)
10: 4-8-10 (A), - (B), - (C)
11: 10-11 (A), - (B), 2-6 (C)
12: 6 (A), 10 (B), 4-7 (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x4x3x2x2 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 3x2x3x2x1 = 36 x .50 = $18
Backups: 1x2x3x2x1 = 12 x .50 = $6 (10 in 8th) + 3x2x3x2x1 = 36 x .50 = $18 (2-6 in 11th)


P4 Grid:

9: 5-12 (A), 2-9 (B), 8-11 (C)
10: 4-8-10 (A), - (B), - (C)
11: 10-11 (A), 2-6 (B), - (C)
12: 6-10 (A), - (B), 4-7 (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x3x4x2 = 96 x .50 = $48
All A's: 2x3x2x2 = 24 x .50 = $12
Backups: 2x3x2x2 = 24 x .50 = $12 (8-11 in 9th); 2x3x2x2 = 24 x .50 = $12 (4-7 in 12th)


Good luck!
Steve

[Kasept]

KD SCR/CHG'S