3/5: Gulfstream (5th-13th); Santa Anita (4th-11th)

[Kasept]

GULFSTREAM


POST-SCRATCHES


5th: The Very One (G3), F&M-4+, 11f-T (P3, DD, Hi-5)[/u][/b]

Most Likely: #5 Virginia Joy 2-1 WON ($3.60)
Best Value: #7 Family Way 12-1 2nd
Next Best: #2 Harajuku 7-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #1 Kelsey's Cross 30-1 8th


6th: Davona Dale (G2), 3yo-F, 1m (P4, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Most Likely: #1 Kathleen O 9-2 WON ($6.60)
Best Value: #4 Outfoxed 5-1 5th
Next Best: #6 Cocktail Moments 5-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #3 Girl With a Dream 3-1 6th


7th: Palm Beach-L, 3yo, 1m-T (X-C Turf P5, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Most Likely: #9 Red Danger 4-1 4th
Best Value: #1 Credibility 6-1 6th
Next Best: #2 Coinage 3-1 WON ($6.80)


X-C TURF P5 Grid:

GP 7: 9 (A), - (B), 1-2 (C)
GP 9: 7-9-11 (A), - (B), - (C)
SA 5: 1-5-10 (A), - (B), - (C)
GP 13: 9 (A), 2 (B), - (C)
SA 10: 4-8 (A), 3-6 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 1x3x3x2x4 = $72
All A's: 1x3x3x1x2 = $18
Backups ($36): $36 (1-2)


8th: OC/C, 4+, 1m (P6, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Best Value: #4 Prevalence 8-1 WON ($12.60)
Next Best: #7 Stage Raider 7-2 5th
Exotics Use: #3 Chocolate Bar 9-2 2nd
Super Add: #8 Manor House 30-1 8th


9th: Honey Fox (G3), F&M-4+, 1m-T (P5, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Potential for this to turn out to be the day's best race. Full, well matched field with an honest pace scenario..

Best Value: #11 Navratilova 12-1 3rd
Next Best: #7 Alms 7-2 6th
Exotics Use: #9 In Italian 8-1 WON ($7.40)
Super Add: #2 Sugar Fix 15-1 4th


P4 Grid:

6: 1-4 (A), 3-6 (B), 2-5 (C)
7: 6/SCR-9 (A), 1-2 (B), - (C)
8: 4-7 (A), - (B), - (C)
9: 7-9-11 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x4x2x3 = 96 x .50 = $48
All A's: 2x2x2x3 = 24 x .50 = $12
Backup (C-A-A-A): $12 (2-5)

$0.50 Pick 4 (1/2/4/9) Paid $304.25


10th: Gulfstream Mile (G2), 4+, 1m (P4, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Most Likely: #4 Fearless 3-1 2nd
Next Best: #3 Speakers Corner 5-2 WON ($)
Best Value: #5 Injunction 20-1 6th
Exotics Use: #8 Collaborate 8-1 7th


11th: Mac Diarmida (G2), 4+, 11f-T (P3, DD, Hi-5)

Best Value: #7 Fantasioso 15-1 5th
Next Best: #1 Abaan 8-5 4th
Exotics Use: #10 Shamrocket 6-1 2nd
Super Add: #9 Media Blitz 8-1 3rd


12th: Fountain of Youth (G2), 3yo, 8.5f (DD, Hi-5)

Most Likely: #2 Simplification 5-2 WON ($7.00)
Best Value: #4 In Due Time 6-1 2nd
Next Best: #8 Emmanuel 3-1 4th
Exotics Use: #5 Dean Delivers 15-1 5th


13th: Herecomesthebride (G3), 3yo-F, 1m-T (Hi-5)

Best Value: #9 Howdyoumakeumoney 12-1 10th
Next Best: #2 Mischievous Kiss 6-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #4 Spendarella 6-1 WON ($5.40)
Super Add: #11 Bali Del Sol 20-1 7th


P5 Grid:

9: 7-9-11 (A), - (B), - (C)
10: 4 (A), 3 (B), - (C)
11: 1-7 (A), - (B), 9-10 (C)
12: 2-4 (A), 5-8 (B), - (C)
13: 2-4-9 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x2x2x4x3 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 3x1x2x2x3 = 36 x .50 = $18
Backup (A-A-C-A-A): $18 (9-10)


P4 Grid:

10: 3-4 (A), - (B), - (C)
11: 1-7 (A), - (B), 9-10 (C)
12: 2-4 (A), 5-8 (B), - (C)
13: 2-4-9 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x2x4x3 = $48 ($24 for .50)
All A's: 2x2x2x3 = 24 x .50 = $12
Backup (A-C-A-A): $12 (9-10)



SANTA ANITA


POST-SCRATCHES


4th: San Carlos (G2), 4+, 7f (X-C Dirt P5, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Brickyard Ride not 100% certain to run; Will wing it on the lead if he does. SCR #2 American Theorem...

Most Likely: #1 Brickyard Ride SCR
Best Value: #9 Shooters Shoot 4-1 5th
Next Best: #4 Cezanne 5-2 WON ($3.20)
Exotics Use: #6 Eight Rings Late SCR


X-C DIRT P5 Grid:

SA 4: 4-6-9 (A), - (B), - (C)
GP 10: 3-4 (A), - (B), - (C)
SA 6: 6-7 (A), - (B), - (C)
GP 12: 2-4-5-8-9 (A), - (B), - (C)
SA 11: 6 (A), - (B), - (C)

All A's:: 3x2x2x5x1 = $60

$1 Pick Five (4-3-6-2-6) Paid $85.10


5th: Buena Vista (G2), F&M-4+, 1m-T (P4, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Specialist Leggs Galore looks to wire and the other speed types are more 9f oriented. Want badly to be more creative, but Cal-bred may prove tough to reel in..

Most Likely: #5 Leggs Galore 7-2 WON ($6.80)
Next Best: #10 Going to Vegas 3-1 2nd
Best Value: #1 Closing Remarks 8-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #11 Mucho Unusual 4-1 4th


6th: San Felipe (G2), 3yo, 8.5f (P6, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Not a vintage edition of this SA Derby lead-in. Forbidden Kingdom may not want to go a step beyond today's trip, but he'll be the one to catch today. Cabo Spirit's OK return to dirt was lost in the wake of Messier blowout and he'll be ignored in the wagering here. Of the Baffert's, Armagnac is a lanky, slow developing type with upside and Doppelganger has to make it happen now and may relish the 2nd turn..

Most Likely: #6 Forbidden Kingdom 8-5 WON ($4.00)
Best Value: #7 Cabo Spirit 5-1 5th
Next Best: #5 Doppelganger 9-5 2nd
Exotics Use: #3 Armagnac 5-1 6th


7th: MSW, 3yo, 1m-T (P5, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Got Thunder has run into some good ones on the main track as a beaten favorite, but he's a half to Heart to Heart so the turf might prove to be the proper surface for him. Would be Arrogate's first grass winner..

Most Likely: #1 Got Thunder 6-5 6th
Next Best: #9 Tuskegee Cat 5-2 4th
Best Value: #7 Barnfield 10-1 7th
Exotics Use: #6 Win the Day Late SCR


8th: ALW/N1X, F&M-4+, 6.5f-DHT (P4, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Well matched ALW set down the hill..

Best Value: #7 Taming the Tigress 6-1 4th
Next Best: #11 Honey Jar 7-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #6 Kalon 6-1 5th
Super Add: #5 Ultimate Hy 5-1 11th


P4 Grid:

5: 5-10 (A), 1-11 (B), - (C)
6: 6-7 (A), - (B), 3-4-5 (C)
7: 1 (A), - (B), - (C)
8: 6-7-11 (A), 4-5-10 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x2x1x6 = $48 ($24 for .50)
All A's: 2x2x1x3 = $12 ($6 for .50)
Backup: $9 (3-4-5)


9th: Beholder Mile, F&M<-4+, 1m (P3, DD)

After starting her 4yo season going 4/3-1-0, As Time Goes By struggled through the summer and fall before circling back to good efforts as winter set in. Freshened for this G1 opportunity and appears ready. McPeek uses the Swiss Skydiver playbook showing up here with Envoutante..

Most Likely: #3 As Time Goes By 4-5 WON ($2.60)
Next Best: #6 Envoutante 8-5 4th
Exotics Use: #5 Miss Bigly 5-1 2nd


10th: Frank Kilroe Mile, 4+, 1m-T (DD, Hi-5)

Space Traveler at 12-1 in Florida a lot more attractive than the 5-1 today, but have to go back to him. Many chances here with honest pace and a variety of styles signed on..

Best Value: #8 Space Traveler 5-1 2nd
Next Best: #4 Count Again 7-2 WON ($6.60)
Exotics Use: #6 Law Professor 6-1 5th
Super Add: #3 Beyond Brilliant 8-1 4th


11th: Santa Anita H. (G1), 4+, 10f (Hi-5)

Looks like Express Train's Big Cap to lose. Soy Tapatio is a goofy inclusion here by O'Neill and step forward can juice the exotics..

Most Likely: #6 Express Train 8-5 WON ($4.20)
Best Value: #4 Soy Tapatio 20-1 7th
Next Best: #2 Why Why Paul Why 6-1 5th
Exotics Use: #8 Stilleto Boy 5-2 3rd


P5 Grid:

7: 1 (A), - (B), - (C)
8: 6-7-11 (A), 4-5-10 (B), - (C)
9: 3 (A), - (B), - (C)
10: 4-8 (A), 3-6 (B), - (C)
11: 2-4-6-8 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 1-6x1x4x4 = 96 x .50 = $48
All A's: 1x3x1x2x4 = 24 x .50 = $12


P4 Grid:

8: 6-7-11 (A), 4-5-10 (B), - (C)
9: 3 (A), - (B), - (C)
10: 4-8 (A), 3-6 (B), - (C)
11: 2-4-6-8 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 6x1x4x4 = 96 x .50 = $48
All A's: 3x1x2x4 = 24 x .50 = $12


Good luck!
Steve

[blackthroatedwind]

If you think there is going to be an "honest pace scenario" in the Honey Fox, why would you pick Navratilova?

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

If you think there is going to be an "honest pace scenario" in the Honey Fox, why would you pick Navratilova?

Hoping she doesn’t have to have the lead to win and that she can utilize the stalking gear she’s shown in the good off the pace efforts.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Hoping she doesn’t have to have the lead to win and that she can utilize the stalking gear she’s shown in the good off the pace efforts.

Every time she has gone long without the lead she has been ineffective and dramatically worse than when she has been in front. Why would that change today?

I suppose if she gets the lead, in theory she's the fastest early, she could win...but hoping she suddenly can rate going long belies her past performances.

[atolunch]

Looks like GP Pick 4 starts in race 6 not race 5 as you have listed.

Also looks like the All Stakes P5's are only $1 increments, not .50 as listed.

Thanks as always for your time and efforts; here's to a big day of Coast to Coast action and winners!!

[moses]

Good luck Steve. I’m making one bet today and it’s keying Simplification in some ways in the FOY.

2 / 3,4,5,6,11,13 / 3,4,5,6,11,13 ($30.00)
3,4 / 2 / 3,4,5,6,11,13 ($10.00)
3,4 / 3,4,5,6,11,13 / 2 ($10.00)

I haven’t bet much recently but if my luck continues, you guys should all load up on Emmanuel and High Oak.

[Kasept]

GP SCR/CHG'S

[Kasept]

[moses]

Originally Posted by moses

Good luck Steve. I’m making one bet today and it’s keying Simplification in some ways in the FOY.

2 / 3,4,5,6,11,13 / 3,4,5,6,11,13 ($30.00)
3,4 / 2 / 3,4,5,6,11,13 ($10.00)
3,4 / 3,4,5,6,11,13 / 2 ($10.00)

I haven’t bet much recently but if my luck continues, you guys should all load up on Emmanuel and High Oak.

Not a bad day.

[cal828]

That top one is very nice. I tried to hit a tri and had all of them except O Captain, My Captain. Maybe I can be forgiven considering he was 80-1. Good to see that you had it.

[moses]

Originally Posted by cal828

That top one is very nice. I tried to hit a tri and had all of them except O Captain, My Captain. Maybe I can be forgiven considering he was 80-1. Good to see that you had it.

Thanks. He was sort of a throw-in just on value. I didn’t realize he would be 80-1.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by moses

Not a bad day.

Moise.. Congratulations! That's a fabulous pop on a great play..

~ $1 Tri (2-4-11) Paid $1,060.70 for those keeping score at home..

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

If you think there is going to be an "honest pace scenario" in the Honey Fox, why would you pick Navratilova?

Not a bad seasonal debut and the 26-1 made it a worthwhile gamble.. No match for the very nice winner and no excuse given the reasonable fractions. She seemed anxious to go for the first half mile but then relaxed. Really needed her to hold second.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Not a bad seasonal debut and the 26-1 made it a worthwhile gamble.. No match for the very nice winner and no excuse given the reasonable fractions. She seemed anxious to go for the first half mile but then relaxed. Really needed her to hold second.

Right, she was a live longshot. But conflating her ability to rate in turf sprints to being able to do it successfully in routes is a mistake.

[atolunch]

Another awesome display of handicapping!

Congrats and thanks as always.

[moses]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Moise.. Congratulations! That's a fabulous pop on a great play..

~ $1 Tri (2-4-11) Paid $1,060.70 for those keeping score at home..

Thanks. I could definitely use it.