Bob Baffert Question

[Dahoss]

Anyone have access to a stat on when Baffert has at least two horses in a race, how often the longer (or longest) priced horse wins?

It seems like everytime, but I’d be curious what it really is.

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by Dahoss

Anyone have access to a stat on when Baffert has at least two horses in a race, how often the longer (or longest) priced horse wins?

It seems like everytime, but I’d be curious what it really is.

Unfortunately, the stat is confounded by the times when the second entrant is in there only to run interference for the heavy favorite.

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

Unfortunately, the stat is confounded by the times when the second entrant is in there only to run interference for the heavy favorite.

Touché

[King Glorious]

I don't have any stats but it's just been my feeling that with certain trainers, Baffert being one of the main ones, if they have a heavy favorite and still run another horse, they either think very highly of the second horse or not very strongly about the first one. I don't think he ever wants to lose a race and won't throw a legit horse in if he doesn't think he has a legit shot.

[gamblin4ever]

Originally Posted by Dahoss

Anyone have access to a stat on when Baffert has at least two horses in a race, how often the longer (or longest) priced horse wins?

It seems like everytime, but I’d be curious what it really is.

If the trainer keeps the 2nd entry in the race, his opinion on 1st entry not that good. If trainer believes 1st entry can't lose, he usually scratches 2nd entry. Baffert, Asmussen, W. Ward usually does it. Keep attention on 2nd entry if left in race.

[moses]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

I don't have any stats but it's just been my feeling that with certain trainers, Baffert being one of the main ones, if they have a heavy favorite and still run another horse, they either think very highly of the second horse or not very strongly about the first one. I don't think he ever wants to lose a race and won't throw a legit horse in if he doesn't think he has a legit shot.

Originally Posted by gamblin4ever

If the trainer keeps the 2nd entry in the race, his opinion on 1st entry not that good. If trainer believes 1st entry can't lose, he usually scratches 2nd entry. Baffert, Asmussen, W. Ward usually does it. Keep attention on 2nd entry if left in race.

I'm not so sure about this. I'd think that plenty of trainers have no issue with just running the two best horses and taking the purse money for 1st and 2nd.

I feel like Baffert doesn't often scratch horses, though I could be wrong.

[jms62]

Originally Posted by gamblin4ever

If the trainer keeps the 2nd entry in the race, his opinion on 1st entry not that good. If trainer believes 1st entry can't lose, he usually scratches 2nd entry. Baffert, Asmussen, W. Ward usually does it. Keep attention on 2nd entry if left in race.

Watch Medina's Spirit's effort in the San Felipe. To me he was there to insure a clean unhindered trip for Life Is Good.

[theguarantee]

^Good point JMS I totally agree on Medina and do think this question is more nuanced than just numbers. I kicked myself after this race because Ax Man just felt like the classic “other Baffert” and I only used on backups which didn’t connect. That is more of a gut feel than anything tangible however.

I do believe, and apologies as my memory is somewhat faulty, that someone researched this a couple years back (my best guess is it was posted on twitter and I think it was maybe DougieSal or InsidethePylons but again thats a guess)...the results, again I want to stress I don’t totally remember, I believe somewhat disputed this theory, much to the surprise of the internet (and myself). I do believe there was one trainer who had a suspiciously high number of longer priced winners but I want to say it was Pletcher or Brown and not Baffert. Again, I want to stress this is all recollection, I don’t have any screenshots or direct knowledge.

[Konk]

I did a study of that a couple of years ago and you would have done better $$$wise betting the longer odds horses. (2018 I believe)

[King Glorious]

For what it's worth, Pletcher just won the Wood with a 70-1 shot, his second horse in the race.

[RolloTomasi]

More of the same but kind of a head scratcher in the 4th at Santa Anita.

The less fancied Baffert won but who would have figured in a maiden special weight race that the one who was bred and owned by Juddmonte Farms, sired by the world's leading stallion Into Mischief, got the riding services of John Velasquez, and had a race under his belt would be the longer price of the two?

The odds on favorite was a NY-bred $1 million yearling purchase sired by a stallion that stands for only $10K.

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

More of the same but kind of a head scratcher in the 4th at Santa Anita.

The less fancied Baffert won but who would have figured in a maiden special weight race that the one who was bred and owned by Juddmonte Farms, sired by the world's leading stallion Into Mischief, got the riding services of John Velasquez, and had a race under his belt would be the longer price of the two?

The odds on favorite was a NY-bred $1 million yearling purchase sired by a stallion that stands for only $10K.

Big workout reports on the favorite in that race.

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by Dahoss

Big workout reports on the favorite in that race.

No doubt.

I did forget to mention that Laurel River was also First Time Lasix...