Two at Toga

[moses]

In an effort to become a better handicapper, I'm going to attempt what DaHoss has been doing and posting two horses at Saratoga each day. We'll do a mythical $2WP wager on each to keep track. I fully expect that the mythical ROI on my picks will be in the negative...but why not give it a shot?

Disclaimer: I will not bet every horse that I post so take my picks with a grain of salt. 4NJBets is actually down for me as I post this and my better half still wants me to cut back on wagering...I'm swimming upstream here. But I'll still look at the races and will take a few shots here and there.

Wednesday, August 12.

Best bet: Race 2 - #5 Strike That (5/2 ML)
Longshot: Race 7 - #1 Jade's Dream (12/1 ML)

[moses]

Originally Posted by Dancer

Great Pick #5 in R2 ... got him at 5/2 did ya ??? ... now, that's Pickin'

I wish I got him at 5/2. If I knew the 3 Liveyourbeastlife would be 6-1 here in Race 8, might have picked him as my longshot instead. Ah well.

[moses]

Originally Posted by moses

I wish I got him at 5/2. If I knew the 3 Liveyourbeastlife would be 6-1 here in Race 8, might have picked him as my longshot instead. Ah well.

Bet down to 9/2 in the final seconds but of course he wins.



Best bet: $4.00 wagered, $7.90 returned.
Longshots: $4.00 wagered, $0.00 returned.
Total: $8.00 wagered, $7.90 returned.

[Dahoss]

Good start!

[moses]

Originally Posted by Dahoss

Good start!

Thanks. Disappointed but not surprised to see my best bet was bet down to 7/5.

Thursday, August 13. Going to go for two longshots here.

Best bet: Race 6 - #3 Indy Union (10/1 ML)
Longshot: Race 2 - #1 Nutsie (10/1 ML)

[moses]

Originally Posted by moses

Thanks. Disappointed but not surprised to see my best bet was bet down to 7/5.

Thursday, August 13. Going to go for two longshots here.

Best bet: Race 6 - #3 Indy Union (10/1 ML)
Longshot: Race 2 - #1 Nutsie (10/1 ML)

Carmouche with a good ride on Nutsie for the upset. The pace scenario for Race 6 was the opposite of what I was hoping. Indy Union was far back throughout and never had a chance.

Best bets: $8.00 wagered. $7.90 returned.
Longshots: $8.00 wagered. $18.80 returned.
Total: $16.00 wagered. $26.70 returned.

[Dahoss]

Nice call on Nutsie!

Keep it going!

[moses]

I’ve got an interview tomorrow so I haven’t had a chance to look at these as thoroughly as I’d like...but in case I don’t have time tomorrow, I’ll post these now and edit them if I get a chance.

Friday, August 14.

Best Bet: Race 2 - #5 Tiple (9/2 ML)
Longshot: Race 9 - #11 Bundibunan (10/1 ML)

That’s two turf horses with Manny Franco aboard. Hopefully I make better decisions in my interview or maybe I’ll sleep on it and come to my senses.

[moses]

Originally Posted by moses

I’ve got an interview tomorrow so I haven’t had a chance to look at these as thoroughly as I’d like...but in case I don’t have time tomorrow, I’ll post these now and edit them if I get a chance.

Friday, August 14.

Best Bet: Race 2 - #5 Tiple (9/2 ML)
Longshot: Race 9 - #11 Bundibunan (10/1 ML)

That’s two turf horses with Manny Franco aboard. Hopefully I make better decisions in my interview or maybe I’ll sleep on it and come to my senses.

Slept on it and I’ll switch it up.

Best Bet: Race 8 - #4 - Tale of the Union (ML 8/5)
Longshot: Race 9 - #11 Bundibunan (10/1 ML)

[theguarantee]

Hope you don’t mind if I crash your thread and jump in. I was also thinking about starting one during all of the chaos...

Best Bet: Race 9 #8 Current - A little bit of dirtied up form compared to the logical, think you can draw a line through the UN and looms very likely on the cutback/class relief to me.
Best Value: Race 6 #7 Family Biz - 6.5 could be a little sharp but needed a cutback and could get a decent set up today.

Good luck everyone.

[gamblin4ever]

Moses,
The Alabama should give you a good idea about your Oaks/Derby futures.

[moses]

Originally Posted by gamblin4ever

Moses,
The Alabama should give you a good idea about your Oaks/Derby futures.

Yep. I’m hoping at least one runs well.

Of course I changed my best bet and Tiple ended up winning.

[moses]

Originally Posted by theguarantee

Hope you don’t mind if I crash your thread and jump in. I was also thinking about starting one during all of the chaos...

Best Bet: Race 9 #8 Current - A little bit of dirtied up form compared to the logical, think you can draw a line through the UN and looms very likely on the cutback/class relief to me.
Best Value: Race 6 #7 Family Biz - 6.5 could be a little sharp but needed a cutback and could get a decent set up today.

Good luck everyone.

Nope, go for it. Good luck.

[moses]

Originally Posted by moses

Slept on it and I’ll switch it up.

Best Bet: Race 8 - #4 - Tale of the Union (ML 8/5)
Longshot: Race 9 - #11 Bundibunan (10/1 ML)

Well I completely screwed up switching off Tiple and Tale of the Union turned out not being a great favorite to bank on. $3.30 back for him running 2nd.

Best bets: $12.00 wagered. $11.20 returned.
Longshots: $12.00 wagered. $18.80 returned.
Total: $24.00 wagered. $30.00 returned.

[gamblin4ever]

Originally Posted by theguarantee

Hope you don’t mind if I crash your thread and jump in. I was also thinking about starting one during all of the chaos...

Best Bet: Race 9 #8 Current - A little bit of dirtied up form compared to the logical, think you can draw a line through the UN and looms very likely on the cutback/class relief to me.
Best Value: Race 6 #7 Family Biz - 6.5 could be a little sharp but needed a cutback and could get a decent set up today.

Good luck everyone.

Good call on Family Biz

[moses]

Saturday August 15.

I’ve liked Spice is Nice for a long time so I won’t jinx her by picking her here...but I think she’s going to run a great race in the Alabama.

Best bet: Race 8 - #6 Colonel Liam (7/2 ML). I’m a believer in this horse and think he gets a perfect trip with there not being much early speed signed on here.

Longshot: Race 6 - #3 Officiating (10/1 ML). Call me crazy for picking a Mott first time starter but this horse’s works fit and the pedigree is solid. There are enough good horses in this one for him to fly under the radar and come in at a really nice price.

[theguarantee]

Originally Posted by gamblin4ever

Good call on Family Biz

Thanks. Nice ride got up for a non-threatening second. Current was obviously a no show. Today:

Best Bet: Race 9 #2 Spice is Nice - Nothing super clever or any angle anyone hasn’t already heard but I think she’s a very likely winner today and will be singling in all the late horizontals I play.
Best Value: Race 8 #4 Domestic Spending - Can’t often call value on a Chad/Irad turner but seems like we get that today. Decorated Invader is obviously very good but wanted to take one shot against off the perfect trip (IMO) last...interested to see what Colonel Liam does today and will certainly cover in the multis...not too enthralled with the rest of the field and think DS is set for a step forward and will appreciate the trip today.

Good luck everyone.

[moses]

Originally Posted by theguarantee

Thanks. Nice ride got up for a non-threatening second. Current was obviously a no show. Today:

Best Bet: Race 9 #2 Spice is Nice - Nothing super clever or any angle anyone hasn’t already heard but I think she’s a very likely winner today and will be singling in all the late horizontals I play.
Best Value: Race 8 #4 Domestic Spending - Can’t often call value on a Chad/Irad turner but seems like we get that today. Decorated Invader is obviously very good but wanted to take one shot against off the perfect trip (IMO) last...interested to see what Colonel Liam does today and will certainly cover in the multis...not too enthralled with the rest of the field and think DS is set for a step forward and will appreciate the trip today.

Good luck everyone.

Good call on Domestic Spending. I hope you’re right about the next one too.

For me, Officiating had a rough start and was out of it from there. Colonel Liam looked like he had a slow start as well (nothing close to what Officiating had). I’ll have to watch that again because he looked like he was going to make a big move and then Gufo flew by him. Gotta see it again to see what happened down the stretch. All those top finishers looked pretty darn good.

[moses]

After yesterday's screw-up with Tiple and nothing to show for today, I'm now in the negative. I thought I had some clever plays yesterday and today...and it just didn't work out. I don't really like tomorrow's card all that much so I'm going to go simple and pick the best horse running and what looks to be the lone speed in a maiden claimer. We'll see if I can get back on track.

Best bets: $16.00 wagered. $11.20 returned.
Longshots: $16.00 wagered. $18.80 returned.
Total: $32.00 wagered. $30.00 returned.


Best bet: Race 9 - #2 Enola Gay (2/1 ML) I won't try to get too cute here. I'm not a huge fan of the card for Sunday and I think Enola Gay is the best horse running tomorrow, so I'll roll with her. If she is at 2/1, then I'm OK with that.

Longshot: Race 6 - #3 Tri Saint Lorenzo (10/1 ML) I don't see too much speed signed on here so I'll try to steal it on the front end with the #3 Tri Saint Lorenzo.

[theguarantee]

Originally Posted by moses

Good call on Domestic Spending. I hope you’re right about the next one too.

For me, Officiating had a rough start and was out of it from there. Colonel Liam looked like he had a slow start as well (nothing close to what Officiating had). I’ll have to watch that again because he looked like he was going to make a big move and then Gufo flew by him. Gotta see it again to see what happened down the stretch. All those top finishers looked pretty darn good.

Thanks - unfortunately my next was dreadful, in fact both of my "best bets" are still running.

Not sure if it was the plan all along or an audible given the horrific start but Officiating appeared to just get a learning experience gallop around the track...be mildly interested to see 2nd out.
I agree on Colonel Liam and that race...nice group...Irad gave DS some ride and it likely was the difference. Plenty of upside still with a bunch of those.

Wagered: $16.00
Returned:$31.70

Today:
Best Bet: Race 9 #4 Stunning Sky - At first glance it would appear as if Stunning Sky had a perfect trip in the Lake Placid and it certainly wasn't horrible...but the more I watched the more I think the early move which caused Speaktomeofsummer to back out might've worked to the latter horses favor that day...Irad also was a bit stymied late before it admittedly parted perfectly...I think SS is more likely to appreciate the added ground than the 1. We'll see on Enola Gay, such an odd race last time I want to take one shot against and Ricetta is a huge question mark...I think I'll actually try to get through multis with just SS and Antoinette although I may throw Ricetta in there as well.
Best Value: Race 8 #9 Playtone - She appeared to have some ability breaking the maiden then was no match for Big Q (who is a must use for me)...I think that margin of defeat is deceptive as she took the worst of it and Manny wrapped her up well before the wire with second secured...I think the race two back the fig is low, not sure if it was a weird track that day but most runners there were well below normal. Don't have an excuse for the last but the subsequent layoff makes it seem something went awry and the worktab leading up to this indicates she's back. Weaver isn't great off layoffs but if you look at just dirt sprints at Toga I think his last bunch have been 80% ITM (don't quote me I looked it up around 4:30 this morning on formulator) with a couple winners and positive ROI.

Good luck.