Derby Trail Forums

Go Back   Derby Trail Forums > Main Forum > Joe Silverio Simulcast Center
Register FAQ Members List Calendar Today's Posts

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
  #1  
Old 07-21-2017, 04:10 AM
Kasept's Avatar
Kasept Kasept is offline
Steve Byk
 
Join Date: May 2006
Location: Greenwich, NY
Posts: 43,876
Default 7/21: Saratoga ~ Opening Day (Schylerville; Lake George)




Incredibly beautiful morning here in Upstate New York. Best wishes to all for a safe, profitable Saratoga season..


SARATOGA ~ OPENING DAY


POST-SCRATCHES


1st: CLM, 3+, 9f (P5, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #5 Rich Daddy Late SCR
Next Best: #1 Indycott 8-5 WON ($4.90)
Best Value: #6 River Date 9-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #8 Praetereo 6-1 4th


2nd: NY-MSW, 2yo-F, 5.5f-T (P4, P3, DD)

In moderate looking set of state bred juvy fillies, Carlos Martin's Scat Daddy Scatback stands out on all pedigree fronts including sire prowess and productive dam. And Martin excellent with win early types. NOTE: Add Gargan/Midwest MTO Trouble for Skylar to your watch list off sharp worktab...

Most Likely: #5 Scatback 7-2 4th
Next Best: #6 Beaux Arts 4-1 WON ($7.10)
Best Value: #2 Misty Forest 6-1 6th
Exotics Use: #1 Wanda Fay 5-1 3rd


3rd: S/ALW, 3+, 9f (P3, DD)

Best Value: #2 Carlino 6-1 2nd
Next Best: #6 Point Hope 2-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #1 Offlee Brawn 9-2 5th
Super Add: #3 Planet Trailblazer 5-2 WON ($6.10)


4th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 6f (P3, DD)

Quirky sprint ALW with Chad Brown fave Patternrecognition the glaring horse to beat. Pace could heat up and that could provide opportunity for Baker's So Noted, 2nd off long break and back on strip where he displayed talent in NY-ALW score. Fancy Juddmonte colt Via Egnatia (Distorted Humor out of wonderful Frankel mare Honest Lady) makes first NA start for Mott and this may turn out to be the best time to play him (9/2)..

Best Value: #4 So Noted 12-1 6th
Next Best: #3 Patternrecognition 8-5 2nd
Exotics Use: #5 Via Egnatia 9-2 8th
Super Add: #6 Royal Asset 15-1 4th


5th: MSW, 2yo-F, 5.5f (P6, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #7 Honey Glow 7-2: Pletcher/Calumet FTS has win early look.. 7th
Next Best: #9 Sunny's Funny 9-2: Asmussen/Brewster 2nd timer.. 5th
Best Value: #5 Southampton Way 12-1: DePaz 2nd timer get hood.. WON ($20.80)
Exotics Use: #1 More Mojo 6-1: Cox firster must overcome rail draw.. 3rd
Super Add: #6 Crimson Creed 8-1: Mason tries Spa again after '747' disaster.. 4th


P5 Grid:

1: 1-6 (A), 8 (B), 2-3-4-7 (C)
2: 5-6 (A), - (B), 1-2 (C)
3: 2-6 (A), - (B), 1-3-4 (C)
4: 3-4 (A), 5-6 (B), 7-8 (C)
5: 5-7-9 (A), - (B), 1-6-8 (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x2x2x4x3 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 2x2x2x2x2 = 32 x .50 = $16


P4 Grid:

2: 5-6 (A), - (B), 1-2 (C)
3: 2-6 (A), - (B), 1-3-4 (C)
4: 3-4-5 (A), 6-7-8 (B), - (C)
5: 5-7-9 (A), 1-6-8 (B), 2-10 (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x2x6x6 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 2x2x3x3 = 36 x .50 = $18


6th: NY-ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 5.5f-T (NYRA Bets P5, G/S, P3, DD)

Crazily well matched group. With no shortage of prices available, good spot to stab around..

Most Likely: #11 Same Kinda Crazy 6-1 5th
Next Best: #2 Itsinthestars 9-2 4th
Best Value: #9 Wantagh Queen 12-1 7th
Exotics Use: #6 Swayed 6-1 3rd


7th: O/CLM-C, 3+, 11f-IT (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #2 Messi 4-1 3rd
Best Value: #4 Muqtaser 15-1 WON ($17.40)
Next Best: #10 Highland Sky 3-1 7th
Exotics Use: #7 Gold Shield 10-1 4th


8th: Schuylerville (G3), 2yo-F, 6f (P3, DD)

Nice edition of this traditional first stake of the meet with virtually none an easy toss. As mentioned on ATR, always like one that has made the 6f trip already and Snowfire is that filly here..

Best Value: #8 Snowfire 6-1 4th
Next Best: #3 Best Performance 4-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #9 Stainless 5-1 3rd
Super Add: #1 Mel's Gone Wild 6-1 8th


9th: Lake George (G3), 3yo-F, 8.5f-T (DD)

Outstanding assembly of sophomore turf talent, a division that has seen one emergence after another. Defiant Honor, who flashed talent as a 2yo, gets her chance today and will have to be a solid price considering presence of 7 stakes winners as well as well-credentialed types like Proctor's Ledge and Chubby Star. Should be an absolute war..

Best Value: #3 Defiant Honor 10-1 6th
Next Best: #8 Proctor's Ledge 6-1 WON ($14.20)
Exotics Use: #11 Dream Dancing 9-2 7th
Super Add: #1 Fifty Five 7-2 3rd


10th: MCLM/$40k, F&M-3+, 8.5f-IT

Most Likely: #3 Submit 5-1 5th
Next Best: #8 Sweet Connie Girl 9-2 7th
Best Value: #6 Sunday Gravy 20-1 9th
Exotics Use: #9 Dynamic War 12-1 2nd


P5 Grid:

6: 2-7-11 (A), - (B), 6-9-10-12 (C)
7: 2-4 (A), - (B), 1-7-10 (C)
8: 3-8-9 (A), - (B), 1-2-4 (C)
9: 3-8 (A), 1-11 (B), 2-7-9-10 (C)
10: 3 (A), 8 (B), 2-6-7-9-10 (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x2x3x4x2 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 3x2x3x2x1 = 36 x .50 = $18


P4 Grid:

7: 2-4 (A), 10 (B), 1-7 (C)
8: 3-8-9 (A), - (B), 1-2-4 (C)
9: 1-3-8-11 (A), 2-7-9-10 (B), 4-6 (C)
10: 3 (A), 8 (B), 2-6-7-9-10 (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x3x8x2 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 2x3x4x1 = $24 ($12 for .50)


Good luck!
Steve
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad
A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine
Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984.

Last edited by Kasept : 07-21-2017 at 05:55 PM.
Reply With Quote
  #2  
Old 07-21-2017, 07:02 AM
RHT2004 RHT2004 is offline
Atlantic City Race Course
 
Join Date: Apr 2015
Posts: 4,829
Default

Tons and tons of weight on Defiant Honor. I think shes a lock. Serling, you, Gus and Aragona all have her on top. Probably a bad sign.
Reply With Quote
  #3  
Old 07-21-2017, 07:25 AM
Hickory Hill Hoff's Avatar
Hickory Hill Hoff Hickory Hill Hoff is offline
Newmarket
 
Join Date: May 2006
Location: the "Sand Flats"
Posts: 6,903
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by RHT2004 View Post
Tons and tons of weight on Defiant Honor. I think shes a lock. Serling, you, Gus and Aragona all have her on top. Probably a bad sign.
Especially with her price now
__________________
"Change can be good, but constant change shows no direction"

http://www.hickoryhillhoff.blogspot.com/
Reply With Quote
  #4  
Old 07-21-2017, 09:32 AM
Kasept's Avatar
Kasept Kasept is offline
Steve Byk
 
Join Date: May 2006
Location: Greenwich, NY
Posts: 43,876
Default

SAR SCR/CHG'S
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad
A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine
Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984.
Reply With Quote
  #5  
Old 07-21-2017, 09:48 AM
ADJMK ADJMK is offline
Randwyck
 
Join Date: May 2007
Posts: 1,311
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by RHT2004 View Post
Tons and tons of weight on Defiant Honor. I think shes a lock. Serling, you, Gus and Aragona all have her on top. Probably a bad sign.
I loved her too and now she probably will go off a lot lower than her ML.
Probably the same scenario for Muqtaser.
Reply With Quote
  #6  
Old 07-21-2017, 10:49 AM
Kasept's Avatar
Kasept Kasept is offline
Steve Byk
 
Join Date: May 2006
Location: Greenwich, NY
Posts: 43,876
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Kasept View Post
HUGE LATE SCR OF #5 RICH DADDY OUT OF THE 1ST..
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad
A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine
Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984.
Reply With Quote
  #7  
Old 07-21-2017, 08:03 PM
Kasept's Avatar
Kasept Kasept is offline
Steve Byk
 
Join Date: May 2006
Location: Greenwich, NY
Posts: 43,876
Default

$48,696 P6 C/O
$104,258 NYRA P5 C/O
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad
A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine
Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984.
Reply With Quote
  #8  
Old 07-24-2017, 03:53 PM
myke myke is offline
Les Bois
 
Join Date: Jun 2016
Posts: 34
Default Thanks

Steve,

thanks for your selections on friday 21 at saratoga..... i was able to hit the pick 5 for a splendid sum of $1783


your the best
Reply With Quote
  #9  
Old 07-26-2017, 05:15 AM
Kasept's Avatar
Kasept Kasept is offline
Steve Byk
 
Join Date: May 2006
Location: Greenwich, NY
Posts: 43,876
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by myke View Post
Steve,

thanks for your selections on friday 21 at saratoga..... i was able to hit the pick 5 for a splendid sum of $1783


your the best
myke..

That's awesome. Well done! Your ticket building was better than mine then, because I needed to have an A/B opinions of Takaful or Planet Trailblazer to hit. Guessing thoughts on Southampton Way helped you score.

Hope that kicks off a great meet for you! Continued success..
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad
A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine
Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984.
Reply With Quote
Reply



Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

vB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Forum Jump


All times are GMT -5. The time now is 05:31 PM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.6.8
Copyright ©2000 - 2025, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.