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#1
05-07-2016, 02:24 AM
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Churchill Downs Saturday May 7th - FULL Derby Analysis
Race 1:
#6 Face of Winner is SCR... Race 2: #8 Unexplained: Has an affinity for the track and continued to improve steadily at Oaklawn. #7 Racer: Arkansas bred emerged on his "local" surface. His best races there were around two-turns so I'll give him another chance returning to CD. #3 Divine Intervisio: Swamped them impressively on debut but I don't think he'll get a similar pace set-up here. #1 Casse Entry: Both parts go but I wasn't visually impressed with either maiden victory. Race 3: #7 Jazzy Times: Impressive work from the gate over this track and gets Castellano up. #10 Jimbo Fallon: Wasn't going as easily as his workmate but held his own with Mor Spirit. #11 Grandy Candy: Take the Bafferts out of the equation and he'd be the logical fav here. #9 Burntwood: Like this one to add a bit of a price on the suitable cutback. Race 4: #12 Place des Vosges: Returns to the grass where she had solid form last year, particularly on this course. Don't overlook. #11 Love the Kitten: Has had many chances and is a fav you want to beat, but this race seems a bit light and she's always hanging around at the finish. #9 Koala Lake: Expect improvement off a lesson learning wide trip in her first start. #7 No Interest: Showed just that on debut but Castellano gets the mount for the turf try. Race 5: #7 Salengo: Not a good enough sprinter to hang around with the likes of Limousine Liberal. Bred for this two-turn trip. #6 Obsidian Splendor is SCR... #4 Hesinfront: Won an identical race here at the end of November but is yet to hit the board on a fast strip. #9 Commanding Curve: This is his favourite track. #10 Freestyler Race 6: #1 Tepin: The only apparent chink in her armour is that ultra slow work in preparation for this. Of course the visual component is more significant but it is a little strange for the barn. #2 Josdesanimaux is SCR... #7 She's Not Here #4 Isabella Sings Race 7: #9 Catalina Red: If we assume something went amiss at Parx then his only one turn loss is to X Y Jet, who he then later beat. Returned with a strong effort and now switches to a high percentage barn. Price and trip look great. #4 Barbados: Think he's better than he's shown recently and I'll give him one more chance. #7 Holy Boss: Maybe needed that start last time and his running style suits the projected shape of this race. #1 Kobe's Back: Doesn't always bring it outside of SoCal but he'll be coming late. #3 ships from SoCal to NY back to SoCal and now to Ky...not a big fan of that... #5 returned with a huge effort and could potentially bounce...notice the slower works heading into this one... #6 has to bring last year's form but has been off 10 months and returns with only five works... #8 has never been best at 7f and won't be aided by the mud this time... Race 8: #8 Taris: Always brings her A-game and is the deserving fav. Stevens got a bit too confident last out, although 9f was always pushing it, so let's see what Prat has to offer. #4 Spelling Again is SCR... #9 Birdatthewire: Can improve upon the return to the Romans barn. #10 Wavell Avenue: Stepped up big time in the BC but has never run another race like that and resultantly is hard to take at short odds. #2 Stonetastic: Has always been vulnerable at 7f and the Lukas runner is also capable of a sub 45 half but may hang around for the minors. Race 9: #12 Surgical Strike: Not disgraced in his poly tries and now returns to his preferred surface. Only poor run on a firm track came on debut without Lasix. Would have trounced them at GPW had he had running room. May be forgotten about at the windows. #11 Dressed in Hermes: Hasn't really run a bad race and is one of the more proven runners in this field. #8 Shakhimat: If the D'Amato runner doesn't gun he could be left alone up top and gone. #3 Converge: Didn't really have trouble last out but maybe he just didn't like going inside runners. Chad has a poor record overall at Churchill but he's done relatively well with turf males. #1 just hasn't brought it as a 3yo but maybe the return to the surface will help... Race 10: #11 American Freedom: Time to see if the hype is real. 6-1 ML won't hold. #10 Cocked and Loaded: Has a win over this track and I think he's better around the one-turn anyways. Returns to a fast track second up. #5 Imperial Hint: Talented looking runner seems to be speedier than #6 and could get things on his own terms here. #3 Torrontes: Beat a decent N1X field last out. Toss the poly and blinkered tries and his form looks much better. Price add. Race 11: #11 World Approval: Versatile runner is a gradual improver who always shows up. Working as good as ever. #10 Tourist: Will improve second off the layoff and I'm not convinced he's strictly a miler. #5 Reporting Star: The class and ability is there, just wonder if 9f is pushing it too much. #12 Big Blue Kitten: Classiest of the bunch, and although he won at this unfavoured distance when returning last season, he wasn't carrying 124lbs against a solid field, never mind being a year older. Looks beatable. Race 12: #1 Trojan Nation: Maiden closed into a fast pace but cannot take based on any other races and drew the rail. VERDICT: Toss. #2 Suddenbreakingnews: Can't knock his effort late as he's always running on but may get a little too far back with traffic to deal with closing from the inside. VERDICT: Can grab a minor share. #3 Creator: Impressive turn of foot, particularly in his two wins, but it's been at least 50 years or so since a runner who broke his maiden after the middle of January wore the roses. VERDICT: I'll only be using underneath. #4 Mo Tom: Hard to read into his ability because of his eventful last two preps and supporters of him definitely couldn't be happy to see Lanerie caught in a similar troubled position going for an inside run early on Friday's card. I think he's got some talent and has run well here before but can't be confident of a clean trip in this stampede. VERDICT: Lower exotics at best. #5 Gun Runner: Questions about who he's beaten---he probably would have lost to Mo Tom in the Risen Star when that one had had an earlier prep but I don't think he would have been caught in the Louisiana Derby. Perfect trips in every start but with no speed inside of him there's no reason to believe that won't happen again. I've liked the way he's looked in the mornings prepping for this and I think he's got a big chance. VERDICT: Potential winner. #6 My Man Sam: Rallied well from last in the Blue Grass but is yet another deep closer. Only time he was within 3 lengths at the 1/8th pole was in his maiden win and that just doesn't scream Derby winner to me. VERDICT: Will include him for 3rd and 4th. #7 Oscar Nominated: Dam did win on dirt and he does pop up with no strikes on my system but he just looks a cut below the rest. VERDICT: Toss. #8 Lani: Last year I was strictly against Mubtaahij, but if he was running this year against these I might have to consider him/ If there is a year for a foreign horse to win, this is it. He's not like most of the previous UAE Derby winners who were Coolmore turf horses that won on the poly, this is a legitimately bred runner from a country that has now at some point had a winner in every route race on Dubai World Cup Night with the exception of the new two mile race. Wild crowds? Ran on the undercard of two G1s in Japan as well as DWC night, and has been given special provisions to be kept at the back of the walkover. Is he a bit crazy? Maybe, but he's also an alpha male. They don't like losing, and he's never not brought it come race day. In his first start on turf he looked well beaten but still somehow ended up battling back for fourth. Got a furlong pole back in his dirt debut and just kept coming to get second. In his 3yo debut he made a ridiculous wide sweeping move before and on the turn before "flattening" out late. I put that in quotations because he still ran a final 3f of the mile in a shade over 36, something I couldn't see many of his rivals doing. Didn't come home as strong as Mubtaahij but that's because from the 2f-7f marker he ran over a full second faster while sweeping up from last, so it's understandable he wasn't able to burst away with authority. Here we have a runner who just keeps on grinding and grinding away. This isn't a great field, the final quarter may be in 26 and change. He'll just keep on coming and coming. Is he a superstar? Probably not, but he doesn't need to be; he has the perfect running style for the race. Sit back, let others do the dirty work, come with a big run on the turn to put himself into position, and just keep grinding away. The mileage he's racked up may take its toll but on the other hand it was always planned for him to come Stateside after Dubai; the Peter Pan and Belmont was the backup plan. It's been a long-drawn process and no doubt some of the world's best vets have been involved in that process. VERDICT: The Japanese racing industry is as good as ever and call me crazy but I think he's got a massive chance. #9 Destin: Maybe he just loved Tampa? Was dusted without any real excuse in Louisiana. Extended layoffs may be becoming the new thing in American racing but Pletcher has tried an 8 week break before and failed miserably. Tough read but I have to take a stand. VERDICT: Toss. #10 Whitmore: Does have quite the kick and has maybe moved a bit too early in his past two, but that could also be a sign of distance limitation. Figs are a bit below the norm and will be an underlay with Espinoza. VERDICT: Toss. #11 Exaggerator: I don't believe in the slop theory for his last, it was more of the shape of the race suiting him. Came with a similar monster move the race prior but moved a bit too soon that time around. Beaten by a few of these earlier in his career but could just be peaking at the right time. I don't think he needs to get as far back as the deep closers and his kick is just as lethal. VERDICT: Potential winner. #12 Tom's Ready: Throws in a stinker here and there but on his best day I don't think he's good enough. Will take exotics money due to the Stewart factor but it won't be mine. VERDICT: Toss. #13 Nyquist: "Stands out" in this poor crop but is about as uninspiring as undefeated champs come. Best races from figures have come sprinting, he isn't bred for this 10f, and only has one route prep. More questions than answers with this one and at 2- or 3-1 is very much the type to beat in a regular race, never mind the Derby. VERDICT: Would have to overcome quite a few of my trends to win and I'll maybe use him on a small ticket for 1st and 2nd as a cover but will mostly have him 3rd or 4th. #14 Mohaymen: The horses he beat (Flexibility, Greenpointcrusader, Zulu) all flopped and he followed suit when given his first big test. With seemingly no excuse for that dull effort I find him very hard to have here. VERDICT: As a saver underneath for 3rd and 4th, but doing so reluctantly. #15 Outwork: Did well to hold on after that pace and even though the track was like glue they still dawdled home. Hasn't shown any real strong kick in any of his starts and I think he'll struggle late here. VERDICT: Toss. #16 Shagaf: I had an eye on him heading into the Wood and even if the track was an excuse that day he's another who hasn't displayed any bold finish. Looks a bit too slow. VERDICT: Toss. #17 Mor Spirit: Maybe not fully cranked over the slop last out and he's one of only three runners to have more than two races with a Late Pace fig of 100 or more; the other two are deep closers. Never worse than second and will be by far his biggest price to date. VERDICT: I don't think he'll win but I'll use him strongly for second. #18 Majesto: Galloped out strongly in the Florida Derby but this just looks like a little too much, too soon for him to do any serious damage. VERDICT: Late run could see him sneak into the super. #19 Brody's Cause: Best races have been in Lexington and he was done no favours with the post draw. Looks a cut below but could keep on for a minor share. VERDICT: I'll use him in the super, maybe even the tri. #20 Danzing Candy: Pace key to the race but even if they go slow I can't see him running 10f from post 20. VERDICT: Toss. Overall picks: #5 Gun Runner #8 Lani #17 Mor Spirit #11 Exaggerator Race 13: #9 Harlan Punch: Kept some good company as a two year old and I really like him cutting back to the one-turn here. On top of that, Amoss is 11/24 going route to sprint at CD, albeit mostly with cheap horses. Check the bullet move on Marley day. #6 Smart Moon: Expensive purchase looks to have needed that return run and he ran a big fig here last yeat. #10 Moon Gate Warrior: His best run came on this course going one-turn without the shades. A return to similar conditions here sees him live as a bomb. #4 Mkubwa: Pulled away easily on debut and attracts Castellano here, but may see a bit more pressure up front. Race 14: #3 Race Me Home: Will appreciate the step up in trip and has broke on top in both of his sprints so I expect him to be a bit closer to the pace this time around. #5 Rolling Tizway: Can make reasonable excuses for all his starts yet none have really been that bad. #6 Forever d'Oro: At first I was ALL over this son of Lemons Forever, but then I saw Stewart is only 1/24 (6 ITM) with second time starters routing for the first time, further nothing that he is a paltry 0/16 (1 ITM) when reducing it to runners who did not hit the board on debut. Hard to go against runners you initially really like based on stats, but that's a tough one to go against. #4 Conquest War Cry #1...with the trend of her form line (7-6-5-4-3-2) this should be the victory... $0.60 Early Pick Four Race 2: 1, 3, 7, 8 Race 3: 7, 10, 11 Race 4: 9, 11, 12 Race 5: 4, 6, 7, 9 $86.40 $0.60 Early Pick Five Race 3: 7, 10, 11 Race 4: 7, 9, 11, 12 Race 5: 4, 7, 9, 10 Race 6: 1 Race 7: 4, 9 $57.60 $0.60 Middle Pick Four Race 5: 4, 7, 9, 10 Race 6: 1, 7 Race 7: 1, 4, 6, 7, 9 Race 8: 8, 9 $48.00 $0.60 Late Pick Five Race 8: 8, 9 Race 9: 8, 11, 12 Race 10: 5, 10, 11 Race 11: 5, 10, 11 Race 12: 5, 8, 11 $97.20 $0.60 Stakes Pick Four Race 9: 3, 8, 11, 12 Race 10: 3, 5, 10, 11 Race 11: 5, 10, 11 Race 12: 5, 8, 11, 13 $115.20 $0.60 Late Pick Four Race 11: 5, 10, 11, 12 Race 12: 5, 8, 11 Race 13: 4, 6, 9, 10 Race 14: 3, 5, 6 $86.40 Good luck! Last edited by Kitan : 05-07-2016 at 09:14 AM. 
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#3
05-07-2016, 10:43 PM
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Quote:
= $601.95 for $0.60 Thanks ASU. Boneheaded plays early leaving out the 9 in the 2nd (a head behind Uncle Walter and beat Creator but for whatever reason was my last # off the ticket) and the 6 in the 4th (rushing through after the SCRs and completely forgot about that runner)...hindsight is always 20/20 though and can't complain about how the weekend went in terms of betting and racing! 
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