9/1: Saratoga (Day 39-Spinaway, Saranac, $140k C/O)

[Kasept]

First truly sloppy Saratoga main of the summer made Saturday a bit quirky with both G1 events upset in wire to wire fashion by reformed claimer Strapping Groom and winless-since-2012 Travers Alpha. Much of the rest of the day was formful with many other dominant-on-paper and obvious MTO horses coming through including Financial Mogul ($6.10), Carla Sweetrevenge ($7.20), Tenango ($8.20), Silver Max ($3.80) and Romancing the Gold ($8.10).

The performance that ultimately may be recalled most, was that of McGaughey/Lane's End firster Honor Code who rallied from 23 lengths back after a half mile to jaw-droppingly win going away. The A.P. Indy colt received an 89 Beyer for the effort which left observers buzzing on a day that was otherwise lacking in verve. Champagne a logical next stop..

Weather still unsettled here in Upstate NY. Grass improved overnight with only the MDN CLM 6th off turf Sunday. All others on and the main track remains muddy..


SARATOGA


POST-SCRATCHES


1st: Speed Boat, F&M-3+, 8.5f-IT (P3, DD)

Baffle Me may be a bit outclassed here, but she could be very dangerous to gather in off a loose lead..

Best Value: #4 Baffle Me 6-1 2nd
Next Best: #7 Samitar 2-1 WON ($4.40)
Exotics Use: #3 Ruthenia 7-2 6th
Super Add: #5 Deanaallen'skitten 6-1 3rd


2nd: MSW, 2yo-F, 8.5f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Challenging first and second timer baby group routing on lawn with give..

SCRATCH NOTE: Ketel Twist & All Star Kitten both get in..

Most Likely: #6 Courtesan 4-1 WON ($20.00)
Next Best: #11 Ketel Twist 5-2 2nd
Best Value: #3 Ameliathenavigator 5-1 4th
Exotics Use: #8 Illapa 3-1 5th


3rd: MSW, 3+, 1m-IT (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #8 Hamnet 2-1 WON ($7.10)
Best Value: #3 Our Emerald Forest 6-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #1 Iron Works 4-1 8th/9th
Super Add: #4 Mio d'Oro 7-2 4th


4th: CLM, 3+, 5.5f-T (P3, DD)

SCRATCH NOTE: Fly Ride, Saint Pete & Alcomatch all come out and re-shuffle the deck..

Most Likely: #10 Cayambe LATE SCRATCH
Best Value: #11 Victorious Leader 20-1 8TH
Next Best: #3 Shmooz Talker 5-1 WON ($5.20)
Exotics Use: #8 Isn'tlovejustgrand 8-1 2ND


5th: OC/N1X, F&M-3+, 6f (P3, DD)

Another of these bunched field type events that have confounded me all meet..

Most Likely: #1 D'princess 7-2 WON ($7.60)
Next Best: #5 Pow Wow Wow 5-2 4TH
Exotics Use: #6 My Sparky 3-1 3RD


<$50 P4 Play:

2: 3-6-7-8-11
3: 1-3-8
4: 3-10-11
5: 1-5

5x3x3x2 = 90 x .50 = $45

$0.50 Pick 4 (6/8/1,3,7,9,10,13,14,15/1) Paid $96.87 X 2 = $193.74


6th: CLM, F&M-3+, 7f-OFF THE TURF (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #14 Time On My Hands 4th
Next Best: #6 Saturday Nthe Park WON ($6.40)
Exotics Use: #12 Al's Rosie 4-1 2nd


7th: MSW, 2yo-F, 7f (P6, P3, DD)

$140k P6 C/O starts here..

Blind start to P6. Watch the board for added clues beyond pedigree, works, trainer intent. #10 (AE) Recepta (7-2) RUNNING very eligible if able to get in..

Best Value: #8 Riviera Romper 5-1 6th
Next Best: #5 Spanish Gold 2-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #10 Recepta 7-2 WON ($6.30)
Super Add: #7 Premura 6-1 2nd


8th: NY-MSW, F&M-3+, 7f-OFF THE TURF (G/S, P3, DD)

Now a mystery with it coming late off the turf..

Most Likely: #13 La Java 8th
Best Value: #2 Echluath 2nd
Next Best: #4 Lady Nitro 5th
Exotics Use: #1 Scat Away WON ($13.40)


9th: 106th Saranac (G3), 3yo, 9f-T (P4, P3, DD)

In spite of the ridiculous name, Notacatbutallama is pretty good..

Most Likely: #1 Notacatbutallama 5-2 2nd
Next Best: #2 Five Iron 4-1 WON ($12.80)
Best Value: #4 Tattenham 5-1 4th
Exotics Use: 5 Frac Daddy 7-2 7th


10th: 122nd Spinaway (G1), 2yo-F, 7f (P3, DD)

Thoroughly spectacular edition of this with every entrant having run here last and 6 of the 9 looking laurel-eligible. Not only are there a host of impressive winners lined up, but virtually all of them have worked forwardly out of their last. Pletcher barn sky high over Sweet Whiskey and she is the horse to beat. Hard not to openly root for Sweet Reason and Leah Gyarmati..

Most Likely: #9 Sweet Whiskey 2-1 4th
Next Best: #2 Bahnah 6-1 6th
Best Value: #4 Sweet Reason 8-1 WON ($7.00)
Exotics Use: #6 Stopchargingmaria 3-1 2nd


11th: OC/N1X, 3+, 9f (DD)

SCR #3 Box Office and #6 North Ocean who ran Saturday..

Most Likely: #1e Zito entry 8-5 2nd/4th
Next Best: #7 Truth Is 4-1 5th
Exotics Use: #5 Kid Sidney 12-1 3rd


12th: MCLM/$20k, F&M-3+, 7f

Best Value: #5 Darnley Bay 8-1 2nd
Next Best: #4 Golden Rule 5-2 WON ($15.20)
Exotics Use: #10 Work N Flirt 6-1 7th
Super Add: #2 Medium of Exchange 3-1 3rd


<$150 P6 Play:

7: 5-7-8-10
8: 13
9: 1-2-4
10: 9
11: 1-7
12: 4-5-10

2x1x3x2x2x3 = 72 x $2 = $144


<$75 P4 Play:

9: 1-2-4-5
10: 2-4-9
11: 1-7
12: 1-2-4-5-7-10

4x3x2x6 = 144 x .50 = $72


Good luck!
Steve

[pmayjr]

I can't emphasize enough in race 4 that you guys at least include #3 Shmooz Talker. Explanation here.
http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=51692
Good luck today and hope you guys are having a fun weekend

Pete

[Kasept]

SAR SCR/CHG'S

[robfla]

Steve: Our Emerald Forest is the #3 in the 3rd. Not #2

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by robfla

Steve: Our Emerald Forest is the #3 in the 3rd. Not #2

THX Rob.. G/L today..

[Kasept]

Big interesting field and I guess the AE draw-ins of Ketel Twist and All Star Kitten account for it partially, but why did Courtesan float to 9-1 from the 4-1 ML? How does Clement continue to provide these values?

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by pmayjr

I can't emphasize enough in race 4 that you guys at least include #3 Shmooz Talker. Explanation here.
http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=51692
Good luck today and hope you guys are having a fun weekend

Pete

Good luck Pete!

[randallscott35]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Big interesting field and I guess the AE draw-ins of Ketel Twist and All Star Kitten account for it partially, but why did Courtesan float to 9-1 from the 4-1 ML? How does Clement continue to provide these values?

Of course I thought Ruthenia was good value in the 1st and she didn't run a lick. Tough to figure.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by randallscott35

Of course I thought Ruthenia was good value in the 1st and she didn't run a lick. Tough to figure.

The Clement plays have been with the MDN turfers..

[Kasept]

8th race is now OFF the turf..

[Clip-Clop]

Just a clue to how many are watching your site. 9-5. Horse was as promised.

[casp0555]

Originally Posted by Clip-Clop

Just a clue to how many are watching your site. 9-5. Horse was as promised.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by Clip-Clop

Just a clue to how many are watching your site. 9-5. Horse was as promised.

I think the fact that the top 3 ML choices (7-2, 4-1, 9-2) all SCR'd had a lot more to do with it...

[Clip-Clop]

Originally Posted by Kasept

I think the fact that the top 3 ML choices (7-2, 4-1, 9-2) all SCR'd had a lot more to do with it...

All class.

[casp0555]

Originally Posted by Clip-Clop

All class.

again

[pmayjr]

Originally Posted by Kasept

I think the fact that the top 3 ML choices (7-2, 4-1, 9-2) all SCR'd had a lot more to do with it...

That would explain why he was the heavy chalk. But I haven't been that confident about a house in months, so to me I liked him regardless.

As I mentioned in the thread about him, I was a little mad they didn't move him up in class so he'd be a nice value play. Well either Mike Maker and/or Ken Ramsey saw his last race, because they claimed at what I think is a bargain for 25k. They should move him up in a Belmont Turf sprint next out. I wonder if David Cannizo thought they'd get him through that race without him getting claimed? Interesting.