Z Fortune. Am I missing something?

[eagles725]

Here is a blurb from Jeremy plonk's article at Espn.com and Mike Welsch at drf. Who do you go with? lol!1

. Z FORTUNE (30-1)
Taxing effort in the Arkansas Derby has been a concern for trainer Steve Asmussen, and this talented horse did not appear to be at his peak training this past week. Following his final breeze, he nearly came to a walk in the gallop-out. He's better than his eventual finish might indicate.

Z Fortune: Has been conservatively handled coming off a career-best performance in the Arkansas Derby. An imposing specimen who has made an awesome appearance on a daily basis. Expecting another huge effort with any racing luck Saturday.

[sundaysilenceforever]

Based on other things I've read, I would lean toward Plonk. ZF is a toss for me. I think he peaked in his last race and left it there.

[ateamstupid]

Welsch. Did Plonk call Barbaro and Street Sense EASILY the best work of the Derby the last two years?

Plus I trust my own eyes. He wasn't allowed to do anything in the morning, and he didn't slow to a walk. Watch the freaking video.

[tjfla]

I had same thought on him!!


Some people say he has looked great and then my buddy who has been up there has said looked BADDD. Bad work and jumpy

I think he just might be a toss

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by eagles725

Here is a blurb from Jeremy plonk's article at Espn.com and Mike Welsch at drf. Who do you go with? lol!1

. Z FORTUNE (30-1)
Taxing effort in the Arkansas Derby has been a concern for trainer Steve Asmussen, and this talented horse did not appear to be at his peak training this past week. Following his final breeze, he nearly came to a walk in the gallop-out. He's better than his eventual finish might indicate.

Z Fortune: Has been conservatively handled coming off a career-best performance in the Arkansas Derby. An imposing specimen who has made an awesome appearance on a daily basis. Expecting another huge effort with any racing luck Saturday.

Most of the guys in the horseracing press have no idea what they're looking at. I have never even heard of Jeremy Plonk, but I doubt he knows what he's talking about. Mike Welsch is one of the few guys in the horseracing press that has a very good eye. As Ateam said, I would go with Welsch's opinion. I think that is pretty much a no-brainer.

I have personally watched a ton of the training footage from this week. I agree with Welsch on Z Fortune. I think he has trained very well this week.

In case any of you want to watch some training footage from this week but don't know where to watch, here is the link:

http://www.kentuckyderby.com/2008/videos/works

It's interesting that Big Brown did not gallop nearly as well on April 30th as he did on April 29th. He was not nearly as fluid on April 30th. In addition, he did not switch leads when he came down the stretch that day. But he did work fine the next day.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

It's interesting that Big Brown did not gallop nearly as well on April 30th as he did on April 29th. He was not nearly as fluid on April 30th. In addition, he did not switch leads when he came down the stretch that day. But he did work fine the next day.

new shoes?

[ShadowRoll]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

new shoes?

Buster Brown's.

[johnny pinwheel]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

Welsch. Did Plonk call Barbaro and Street Sense EASILY the best work of the Derby the last two years?

Plus I trust my own eyes. He wasn't allowed to do anything in the morning, and he didn't slow to a walk. Watch the freaking video.

i know , people listen to the crappy rumors. have you ever looked at this horse. hes a beast. go ahead toss him . i won't. the arkansas derby has been a key for years. it should be a grade 1. watch the video.

[JJP]

Anyone who thinks Z Fortune will be 30-1 (i.e. Plonk) knows NOTHING about making a morning line. I would not be shocked to see Z Fortune at odds lower than 10-1. Comparing his past perfs against Colonel John, I don't know how Colonel John figures to be bet much lower. That's a head scratcher to me.

[Oaklawnfan]

Originally Posted by johnny pinwheel

i know , people listen to the crappy rumors. have you ever looked at this horse. hes a beast. go ahead toss him . i won't. the arkansas derby has been a key for years. it should be a grade 1. watch the video.

I was there and Z Fortune made the mile and an eighth into a mile and a quarter because he was wide throughout. He was closing strong on Gayego. Better not throw him out of your exotics. Oh and yes, Steve A. came to Oaklawn instead of Keenland. Does that tell you something?

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by JJP

Anyone who thinks Z Fortune will be 30-1 (i.e. Plonk) knows NOTHING about making a morning line. I would not be shocked to see Z Fortune at odds lower than 10-1. Comparing his past perfs against Colonel John, I don't know how Colonel John figures to be bet much lower. That's a head scratcher to me.

Whoa. 15-1 at the LOWEST.

[brianwspencer]

Hey I know Welsch is one of the best at this type of thing -- but Plonk is no slouch. He's one of the few people I listen to every year to key me in on how the boys look on the track since I can't get down there.

He's really one of the better, more insightful public handicappers out there and a really sharp guy.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by eagles725

Here is a blurb from Jeremy plonk's article at Espn.com and Mike Welsch at drf. Who do you go with? lol!1

. Z FORTUNE (30-1)
Taxing effort in the Arkansas Derby has been a concern for trainer Steve Asmussen, and this talented horse did not appear to be at his peak training this past week. Following his final breeze, he nearly came to a walk in the gallop-out. He's better than his eventual finish might indicate.

Z Fortune: Has been conservatively handled coming off a career-best performance in the Arkansas Derby. An imposing specimen who has made an awesome appearance on a daily basis. Expecting another huge effort with any racing luck Saturday.

I'm with Welsch on this one. Really like the progression if you forgive the Rebel non-effort, and like what I've seen in the mornings (much more so than his stablemate).

[The Bid]

Whatever Z Fortune is he still has no chance

[johnny pinwheel]

Originally Posted by Oaklawnfan

I was there and Z Fortune made the mile and an eighth into a mile and a quarter because he was wide throughout. He was closing strong on Gayego. Better not throw him out of your exotics. Oh and yes, Steve A. came to Oaklawn instead of Keenland. Does that tell you something?

oh i agree 100%, i think he thought the horse would win . i got the double good if he hits. its the highest one i have, so you know who i want . he has a chance. i give him more of a chance then most of these.

[hockey2315]

Welsch > Plonk

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by The Bid

Whatever Z Fortune is he still has no chance

I always love the "no chance" posts.

--Dunbar

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

Most of the guys in the horseracing press have no idea what they're looking at. I have never even heard of Jeremy Plonk, but I doubt he knows what he's talking about. Mike Welsch is one of the few guys in the horseracing press that has a very good eye. As Ateam said, I would go with Welsch's opinion. I think that is pretty much a no-brainer.

I have personally watched a ton of the training footage from this week. I agree with Welsch on Z Fortune. I think he has trained very well this week.

In case any of you want to watch some training footage from this week but don't know where to watch, here is the link:

http://www.kentuckyderby.com/2008/videos/works

It's interesting that Big Brown did not gallop nearly as well on April 30th as he did on April 29th. He was not nearly as fluid on April 30th. In addition, he did not switch leads when he came down the stretch that day. But he did work fine the next day.

Rupert, how are you judging Col John's chances? I'm having a lot of trouble with him in my line. Also, any thoughts on how Pyro has looked?

--Dunbar

[my miss storm cat]

Incase anyone is interested...

http://www.horseadoption.com/adopt-a...y-derby-horse/

[mbahadur]

Wow. Pretty good PR opportunity for the industry. Hope he gets a good home.

He would look great in front of the Kentucky Derby Museum (replacing Phantom on Tour who was recently retired).