Kentucky Oaks Probables/Notebook

[Kasept]

137th KENTUCKY OAKS

5:45 pm. ET Friday at Churchill Downs. Purse: $1 million. Distance: 1 1/8 miles. Weight: 123 pounds. TV: Versus 5-6 p.m.

1. Joyful Victory (Smith/L. Jones) 1st G2 Fantasy
2. Lilacs and Lace (Castellano/Terranova) 1st G1 Ashland
3. Summer Soiree (Saez/Motion) 1st G3 Bourbonette Oaks
4. Kathmanblu (Leparoux/McPeek) 3rd G1 Ashland
5. Suave Voir Faire (Mena/Smithwick) 3rd Bourbonette Oaks
6. Zazu (Rosario/Smith) 2nd G1 Santa Anita Oaks
7. Her Smile (Gomez/Pletcher) 2nd G3 Comely
8. Bouquet Booth (Albarado/Margolis) 4th Ashland
9. Daisy Devine (Graham/McKeever) 1st G2 Fair Grounds Oaks
10. Street Storm (Bridgmohan/Margolis) 1st Mardi Gras Stakes
11. Holy Heavens (Desormeaux/Chatters) 3rd G3 Fantasy
12. Plum Pretty (M. Garcia/Baffert) 1st Sunland Park Oaks
13. St. John’s River (Napravnik/Leggio) 2nd G2 Fair Grounds Oaks

[Kasept]

Pending weather issues, Larry Jones is expected to work serious Oaks hopeful JOYFUL VICTORY (Fox Hill Farm/Rick Porter) Monday morning in company with barn and stablemate Winslow Homer.

Donver Stables' INGLORIOUS, the Josie Carroll trainee that remains undecided regarding Oaks, is likely to work at Keeneland this morning...

Bernie Chatters, who put off a drill for HOLY HEAVENS (Drs. Jayaraman) due to the slop Sunday, may work the Holy Bull filly today if happy with the track conditions. The homebred has hit the board in all 4 of her stakes tries this year.

[Scav]

Thanks for the updates Steve, appreciate it greatly.

[Kasept]

Sad incident at the wire Tuesday as Bob Baffert's Oak player PLUM PRETTY worked with barnmate and Distaff candidate GILDED GEM. The elder Gilded Gem took an awkward step at the wire suffering a catastrophic injury. Mike Welsch has submitted a preliminary workout report that details the unfortunate situation.

[dpkovalesky]

derby media on twitter is saying that they are still thinking Oaks for It's Tricky?

[OldDog]

Damn, that's sad about Gilded Gem. She was a nice horse.

[Alan07]

Originally Posted by dpkovalesky

derby media on twitter is saying that they are still thinking Oaks for It's Tricky?

No Oaks for her per McLaughlin.

[lemoncrush]

What happened to Wyomia?
Is she no longer being considered for the Oaks?

[Kasept]

No Delightful Mary for Oaks..

[Kasept]

1. R Heat Lightening (Pletcher/Velasquez
2. Joyful Victory (Jones/Smith)
3. Kathmanblu (McPeek/Leparoux)
4. Bouquet Booth (Margolis/Albarado) Likely/Eight Belles
5. Daisy Devine (McKeever/Graham)
6. Lilacs and Lace (Terranova/Castellano)
7. Zazu (Sadler/Rosario)
8. St. Johns River (Leggio/Napravnik)
9. Arienza (Peitz/Dominguez)** Doubtful/Eight Belles
10. Summer Soiree (Motion/Saez)
11. Holy Heavens (Chatters/Ocampo)
12. Plum Pretty (Baffert/Garcia)
13. Her Smile (Pletcher/TBA)
14. Suave Voir Faire (Smithwick/Alvarado)
---------------------------------------------------
15. Royal Delta (Mott/Lezcano) Black-Eyed Susan
16. Street Storm (Margolis/Campbell) Edgewood

[hockey2315]

So is Royal Delta going to run if she gets in?

[Clip-Clop]

Glad (hope?) to see Arienza go in the Eight Belles instead, she was not even close to Joyful Victory and nobody else will be on Friday. Might as well go somewhere they can catch a good shot if not a win.

[hockey2315]

I don't think I've seen a more overrated horse than Joyful Victory in a while. The problem is, if R Heat Lightning turns back into a pumpkin, there's not a ton out there.

[Clip-Clop]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

I don't think I've seen a more overrated horse than Joyful Victory in a while. The problem is, if R Heat Lightning turns back into a pumpkin, there's not a ton out there.

Really? I thought she looked ridiculously good beating a very buzz-worthy undefeated horse last out, no? Also all reports have her relishing the course and training nicely. I am taking the stand against R Heat outside of Gulfstream this year.

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by Clip-Clop

Really? I thought she looked ridiculously good beating a very buzz-worthy undefeated horse last out, no? Also all reports have her relishing the course and training nicely. I am taking the stand against R Heat outside of Gulfstream this year.

Joyful Victory benefited from two TREMENDOUS pace setups at Oaklawn. Defeating Arienza, who was somewhat rushed to get into the Fantasy and was pushed through taxing fractions, is hardly a buzz worthy accomplishment.

[lemoncrush]

Anyone want to take a stab at what the post time odds might look like in the Oaks?
R Heat Lightning 8-5
Joyful Victory 9-5
Kathmanblu 7-2
Everyone else in double digits?

Edit- I'm sure Zazu and Plum Pretty could creep up, too.

[VOL JACK]

Originally Posted by lemoncrush

Anyone want to take a stab at what the post time odds might look like in the Oaks?
R Heat Lightning 8-5
Joyful Victory 9-5
Kathmanblu 7-2
Everyone else in double digits?

Edit- I'm sure Zazu and Plum Pretty could creep up, too.

I think you are forgetting about Summer Soire.

[Alan07]

No Oaks for Royal Delta - Shipped to BEL.

[Kasept]

KENTUCKY OAKS

1. Joyful Victory (Jones/Smith)
2. Kathmanblu (McPeek/Leparoux)
3. Bouquet Booth (Margolis/Albarado) Likely/Eight Belles
4. Daisy Devine (McKeever/Graham)
5. Lilacs and Lace (Terranova/Castellano)
6. Zazu (Sadler/Rosario)
7. St. Johns River (Leggio/Napravnik)
8. Arienza (Peitz/Dominguez)** Doubtful/Eight Belles
9. Summer Soiree (Motion/Saez)
10. Holy Heavens (Chatters/Ocampo)
11. Plum Pretty (Baffert/Garcia)
12. Her Smile (Pletcher/J. Velazquez)
13. Suave Voir Faire (Smithwick/Alvarado)
14. Street Storm (Margolis/Campbell) Doubtful/Edgewood

[Clip-Clop]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

Joyful Victory benefited from two TREMENDOUS pace setups at Oaklawn. Defeating Arienza, who was somewhat rushed to get into the Fantasy and was pushed through taxing fractions, is hardly a buzz worthy accomplishment.

I was referring to Arienza being buzz worthy, not the victory so much. It was the margin that really impressed me and how easily she did it.