Closing Fractions - nothing has become more overrated in regards to the KY Derby

[The Indomitable DrugS]

You're lucky if you can read a recap of a Derby prep anymore without reading about the "come-home time" or closing fractions.

Emphasising closing ability is a GREAT way to go broke fast in regards to betting dirt racing. It can be an important factor in handicapping turf racing however.

Last years winner Super Saver had blown very easy early leads on multiple occasions:



He was unable to hold off Oddsyess and Schoolyard Dreams in the Tampa Derby. In the Arkansas Derby - he pressed a very fast paced set by sprinter Line of David. Super Saver collered him turning for home - but was unable to pass the entire length of the stretch.


2009 Derby winner Mine That Bird was the leader at the 1/4 pole in his prior two races at Sunland Park - he was unable to hold-on both times. He actually faded to 4th in the Sunland Derby - which was a very fast paced race early - and a brutally slow paced race late.



He wins the Kentucky Derby from a mile back because the change in tactics allows for his speed to be rationed efficently.




2008 Kentucky Derby winner Big Brown had a slower come-home time than the laughing stock Tomcito in his final prep - the Florida Derby. Big Brown was ultimately lucky to draw the 12 hole in the Florida Derby ... because it forced his jockey to gun him hard out of the gate.

He ran a 22 3/5 first quarter despite racing about 3-to-4 wide through the first turn. No trainer wants to see his horse absolutely sprinting early on - in his final Ky Derby prep. However, history shows it sets a horse up better for dealing with the Ky Derby pace.

Horses who exit a series of slow paced races often get baked by the Kentucky Derby pace. There are VERY few Derby preps each year that are truly fast paced races - but horses who ran in them... and either came home very slowly in victory .. or faded in defeat ... they have performed absolutely incredible in the Derby.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by cmfhb411

Silver Charm and what he got from the Santa Anita Derby comes to mind

Yeah - in Silver Charm's Santa Anita Derby race he was awesome. He dueled head-to-head (with my fathers favorite horse Sharp Cat) through a 45 flat half mile... Free House was rated and nailed him late.

My father lost several thousand dollars in Vegas on a head-to-head bet between Glitter Women and Sharp Cat in the Ky Oaks. Sharp Cat finished about 20 lengths in front of her - but was DQ'd for fouling her.

Giacomo Sham's stakes is actually a good example of this. He wasn't gaining ground late on Going Wild through a snail like 13 4/5 final furlong. Everyone else hated Giacomo's Sham because of the come-home time .. but it was probably his best race until he finished a good 4th in the BC Classic behind Invasor, Bernardini, and Premium Tap.




Smarty Jones almost lost the Southwest Stakes to a fast closing Two Down Automatic in a 26 and change final quarter in a race at just a mile. Funny Cide blew a loose lead in the Lousinanna Derby with Badge of Silver.

[Indian Charlie]

Taking this into account is useful, but not if you don't account for the rest of the race.

Certain turf writers seemed to have missed that point.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

I think the main point they are missing is that the KY Derby is always going to be at least a true paced race - and sometimes an insanely fast paced race.

If you are finishing very strongly in your preps - you're probably going to have to run a whole lot faster early on in the Derby.

The same goes with workouts ... horses who enter the Derby off of crazy fast published workouts have a very good record.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

I think the main point they are missing is that the KY Derby is always going to be at least a true paced race - and sometimes an insanely fast paced race.

If you are finishing very strongly in your preps - you're probably going to have to run a whole lot faster early on in the Derby.

The same goes with workouts ... horses who enter the Derby off of crazy fast published workouts have a very good record.

Like who? I mean besides Baffert.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

Like who? I mean besides Baffert.

A lot of them. Giacomo, Smarty Jones, Afleet Alex, Funny Cide - all non-Bafferts. Big Brown worked 35.40 right on top of the race. Hard Spun didn't win .. but he worked very, very fast.

Going way oldschool - General Assembley worked 5fs in 57.20 in his final work before running 2nd to Spectacular Bid in the Derby.

Steve Asmussen specializes in the slowest of the slow workouts.

[johnny pinwheel]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

I think the main point they are missing is that the KY Derby is always going to be at least a true paced race - and sometimes an insanely fast paced race.

If you are finishing very strongly in your preps - you're probably going to have to run a whole lot faster early on in the Derby.

The same goes with workouts ... horses who enter the Derby off of crazy fast published workouts have a very good record.

for once i totally agree with you....your not trying to use some crazy number system. the early pace is what makes the derby. this is why the arkansas derby is a key prep in many years now, the first half is usually pedal to the metal. these horses usually go a crazy half that most horses won't make at 10 furlongs...it happens just about every year. if the horse can't cruise at a high rate of speed like big brown or super saver they will never make it...thats why i don't like to honor and serve....he wins a mile going 48 on the front....then he quits in the FOY, when they were walking compared to a derby pace. soldat did good considering he ran a little early and had soemething left late. besides that the other way is to close hard late. the reality is once every 10 years a horse will get a clear lead in that race.....if that. 9 times out of 10 a number of horses that are never going to make it....dictate a ridiculous pace. many years the winner can plod home because about 17 other horses are staggering. horses that can't withstand pace pressure or have to dictate the pace.....are dead. by the end the ones walking win and the ones behind that are stumbling to the barn.

[Slewbopper]

Drugs I have respected your handicapping prowess all the way back to '01 on the AOL boards when you were putting cum in your girl friend's shampoo. I am not generally a guy that jumps on a 2 yo bandwagon and declares a horse the best since the Bid, but I really do think Mo is a special one. i don't think that the pace of the Timely Writer means anything. I think Mo is a freak. My only question about him winning a TC is a rested horse like Birdstone beating him in the Belmont. And JRV is not my favorite jock. He knows how to blow it on the big stage. He is a pinhead to the nth degree ala Stew Elliott.

[justindew]

Originally Posted by Slewbopper

Drugs I have respected your handicapping prowess all the way back to '01 on the AOL boards when you were putting cum in your girl friend's shampoo. I am not generally a guy that jumps on a 2 yo bandwagon and declares a horse the best since the Bid, but I really do think Mo is a special one. i don't think that the pace of the Timely Writer means anything. I think Mo is a freak. My only question about him winning a TC is a rested horse like Birdstone beating him in the Belmont. And JRV is not my favorite jock. He knows how to blow it on the big stage. He is a pinhead to the nth degree ala Stew Elliott.

Waitwaitwaitwaitiwait....

What?

[Indian Charlie]

Not this story again.

Next you are going to tell me you never heard that story about DrugS and his male cousin.

[justindew]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

Not this story again.

Next you are going to tell me you never heard that story about DrugS and his male cousin.

Never.

[Slewbopper]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

Not this story again.

Next you are going to tell me you never heard that story about DrugS and his male cousin.

I didn't want to give away any of the DrugSter's inner secrets. We insiders know that he putts from the rough.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by Slewbopper

I didn't want to give away any of the DrugSter's inner secrets. We insiders know that he putts from the rough.

Insider?

I feel like scrubbing myself down now with a brillo pad.