Belmont Horse that scares me...

Buffymommy · #1 05-31-2006, 10:09 AM

OK, so the horses who have scared me in the last two tc races have won the race so here is the horse that scares me now....

Jazil.

I don't know what to make of this horse. Is he good or did he get lucky in the derby? hmmmmm....

Cajungator26 · #2 05-31-2006, 10:26 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Buffymommy

OK, so the horses who have scared me in the last two tc races have won the race so here is the horse that scares me now....

Jazil.

I don't know what to make of this horse. Is he good or did he get lucky in the derby? hmmmmm....

I am leaning more towards him than Steppy at this point, but I haven't made up my mind yet. Jazil seems to be bred a bit better for this distance than Steppenwolfer, although I think Steppy is a more consistent closer. I will have Bob and John on my tickets for the same reason.

Samarta · #3 05-31-2006, 10:35 AM

I definately don't think he got lucky in the Derby....watch the replay of The Wood....they can say what they want about the field limping home, but he was moving....I think he and steppenwolfer run 1 and 2....cajun...why Bob and John?

Cajungator26 · #4 05-31-2006, 10:41 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Samarta

I definately don't think he got lucky in the Derby....watch the replay of The Wood....they can say what they want about the field limping home, but he was moving....I think he and steppenwolfer run 1 and 2....cajun...why Bob and John?

Both he and Jazil are bred almost identically. Both are by Seeking the Gold and both are out of Deputy Minister mares. Although their running style is different, I think they are both bred to go the distance.

Buffymommy · #5 05-31-2006, 10:44 AM

Cajun,

I think we should do an ex box with B&J and Jazil. Put Bigdog's horse in for the tri.

#6 05-31-2006, 10:58 AM

i would not be surprised at all to see Jazil win this race,
both he and steppenwolfer should do well here.
they exhibited their ability to trot around for 9f earlier and seem to be able to trot for 12 seconds without end, whereas most start to slow by the 10th furlong. Jazil, imo, could win this,
he has the second on the surface in the wood, and Banjo has a win on the surface in the slop. granted his closing quarter in the wood was slow, but the track was garbage that day.

Cajungator26 · #7 05-31-2006, 11:02 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Buffymommy

Cajun,

I think we should do an ex box with B&J and Jazil. Put Bigdog's horse in for the tri.

Not a bad idea actually...

I'm not sure if Landson has decided to enter "That's a Given" though. Where is all the hype coming for Deputy Glitters? His dosage profile sucks for the Belmont. Has he been working really well?

whorstman · #8 05-31-2006, 11:05 AM

The impression I got from the Wood was that B&J was a grinder and just kept running. I think he will do well on the long stretch. B&J, Jazil or Steppy EX? Maybe just box all thre

e.

Samarta · #9 05-31-2006, 11:20 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cajungator26

Both he and Jazil are bred almost identically. Both are by Seeking the Gold and both are out of Deputy Minister mares. Although their running style is different, I think they are both bred to go the distance.

I hear ya, but I can't see B&J getting 12f, not with his pp's. Right now I think this will end up being a two horse race....but that opinion will probably change 10x between now and post time....anxious to see what kind of m/l they set for Jazil and Steppenwolfer.

Cajungator26 · #10 05-31-2006, 11:22 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Samarta

I hear ya, but I can't see B&J getting 12f, not with his pp's. Right now I think this will end up being a two horse race....but that opinion will probably change 10x between now and post time....anxious to see what kind of m/l they set for Jazil and Steppenwolfer.

I wonder why Baffert is entering Bob and John and NOT Point Determined...

#11 05-31-2006, 11:23 AM

High Finance should worry a bunch of people. Could run away with this race.

Cajungator26 · #12 05-31-2006, 11:28 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hoisttheflag

High Finance should worry a bunch of people. Could run away with this race.

Do you think he can handle a mile and a quarter?

dr. fager · #13 05-31-2006, 11:32 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cajungator26

Do you think he can handle a mile and a quarter?

no, or a mile and a half....

Samarta · #14 05-31-2006, 11:32 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cajungator26

I wonder why Baffert is entering Bob and John and NOT Point Determined...

good question.....haven't heard of any injuries....

Cajungator26 · #15 05-31-2006, 11:35 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dr.fager

no, or a mile and a half....

Oops. DOH!

#16 05-31-2006, 11:45 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cajungator26

Do you think he can handle a mile and a quarter?

I think he can go 12F with no problem based on his last two performances. I am not a big dosage guy and I guess neither was Conquistador Cielo who had a DI of 6.14. and had no problem in the belmont winning by 14.5 lengths only 5 days after winning the Met Mile.

tycharles01 · #17 05-31-2006, 11:49 AM

A horse I could see get up for atleast Show is

Hemingway's Key

Def wont win but the horse looked pretty decent in closing in the Preakness, might be one to included in some bets

Cajungator26 · #18 05-31-2006, 11:50 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hoisttheflag

I think he can go 12F with no problem based on his last two performances. I am not a big dosage guy and I guess neither was Conquistador Cielo who had a DI of 6.14. and had no problem in the belmont winning by 14.5 lengths only 5 days after winning the Met Mile.

I'm talking more in the lines of dosage points and not so much the dosage index.

Cajungator26 · #19 05-31-2006, 11:52 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tycharles01

A horse I could see get up for atleast Show is

Hemingway's Key

Def wont win but the horse looked pretty decent in closing in the Preakness, might be one to included in some bets

I had Hemingway's Key in my tri for the Preakness because of the way he was working. I'm not so certain of how he will do in the Belmont.

#20 05-31-2006, 12:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cajungator26

I'm talking more in the lines of dosage points and not so much the dosage index.

It is my understanding that Dosage Index (the ratio of speed to stamina) is really what dosage people use as a yardstick to determine a horses ability to go a certain distance (>4.0 being the number they throw around for the classic distance). I am not a dosage expert or believer though so perhaps you are talking about something else. The points are just an accumulation of that spectrum from brilliant to professional. Also, not sure who dosage works because it completely ignores young sires.

Talk is Money's (HF's Sire) Blazing Sunset just won at 9F in the Alydar so I don't think distance is a problem on top and Margay is out of CC so I don't see how anyone can question his ability to go 12F, especially based on his last two races where he won for fun. He was confirmed for the Belmont too, now I just hope nobody likes him.