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#1
08-29-2009, 03:47 AM
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8/29: Saratoga (Travers Day)
Couldn't get 4th choice winners on P6 play in first two legs of carryover Friday, but then ran the table to end solid day. $28k payday on sextet was excellent return on fun sequence for those that negotiated the sequence. P4 score was humdrum, doubling investment at just under $150. Hope you did well.
Travers Day wet no matter how you look at it, with overnight rain and further showers a certainty. 1st, 5th and 13th OFF TURF so far, and more could come off yet. Gr. II Ballston Spa (9th) a near certainty to remain on... More later this a.m. SARATOGA RACE COURSE PRE-SCRATCHES 1st: NYB-ALW/N1X, 3+, 8.5f-OFF THE TURF (P3, DD, Super) Most Likely: #13 Inherit the Gold 2-1 8th Next Best: #12 Heavenly Blaze 4-1 2nd Best Value: #8 Her Latest Flame 20-1 6th 2nd: MSW, 2yo-F, 6f (P4, P3, DD, Super) Best Value: #9 Sheryl's Melody 10-1 8th Most Likely: #3 Devil May Care 7-2 WON Next Best: #1 SCR Super Add: #10 Cautionary Tale 10-1 4th 3rd: MSW, 3+, 7f (P3, DD, Super) Most Likely: #8 Schneerson 2-1 WON Best Value: #3 Soda Jerk 4-1 2nd Next Best: #2 LATE SCR Super Add: #6 Recruit 6-1 7th 4th: Lure, 3yo, 1m-IT (P3, DD, Super) Best Value: #1 Mikoshi 6-1 2nd Most Likely: #9 Strike Again 4-1 5th Next Best: #4 Golden Mexico 3-1 3rd Super Add: #10 Wicked Rich 20-1 9th 5th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 8.5f-OFF THE TURF (P4, P3, DD, Super) Most Likely: #1 Liscarroll 4-1 5th Best Value: #2 Grand Stage 5-1 2nd Next Best: #5 New York Holiday 8-1 WON Super Add: #10 Stratos 20-1 7th <$75 P4 Play: 2: 1-3-9-10 3: 2-3-8 4: 1-9 5: 1-2-5 4x3x2x3 = $72 6th: OC/N2X, 3+, 8.5f-IT (P3, DD, Super) OFF THE TURF: 13-2nd 3-WON 14-5th 11-3rd 7th: 7th Victory Ride (Gr. III), 3yo-F, 6f (G/S, P3, DD) Most Likely: #7 Selva 4-1 7th Next Best: #8 Sara Louise 2-1 WON Best Value: #6 Step Out Smartly 10-1 8th Exotics Use: #4 Sky Haven 8-1 4th 8th: MSW, 2yo, 6f (P6, P3, DD, Super) Best Value: #2 Three Day Rush 12-1 4th Most Likely: #1 Bulldogger 3-1 WON Next Best: #11 No Truth Told 6-1 3rd Super Add: #6 Our Dark Knight 15-1 2nd <$75 P4 Play: 5: 1-7 6: 1-3-4-9 7: 7-8 8: 1-2-6-11 2x4x2x4 = $64 9th: 21st Ballston Spa (Gr. II), F&M-3+, 8.5f-T (P4, P3, DD, Super) Most Likely: #1 Rutherienne 5-2 2nd Best Value: #2 My Princess Jess 5-1 3rd Next Best: #7 Cocoa Beach 2-1 4th Super Add: #6 Captain's Lover 6-1 6th 10th: 31st Ballerina (Gr. I), F&M-3+, 7f (P3, DD) Best Value: #1 Music Note 5-2 WON Most Likely: #2 Informed Decision 2-1 3rd Next Best: #4 Indian Blessing 8-5 2nd 11th: 25th King's Bishop (Gr. I), 3yo, 7f (P3, DD) Most Likely: #3 Capt. Candyman Can 4-1 WON Next Best: #8 Big Drama 3-1 6th Best Value: #4 Not for Silver 15-1 5th Exotics Use: #1e Godolphin-Darley entry 7-2 2nd-DQ/8th 12th: 140th Travers (Gr. I), 3yo, 10f (DD, Super) Most Likely: #6 Summer Bird 3-1 WON Next Best: #4 Quality Road 8-5 3rd Best Value: #3 Warrior's Reward 8-1 5th Super Add: #2 Charitable Man 6-1 4th <$75 P4 Play: 9: 1-2-6-7 10: 1-2-4 11: 3-4-8 12: 4-6 4x3x3x2 = $72 13th: NYB-MSW, 3+, 8.5f-OFF THE TURF (Super) Most Likely: #5 SCR Best Value: #1e Kelly entry 5-1 3rd Next Best: #2 Whirlwind Poppy 7-2 WON Super Add: #8 Pernice 4-1 6th Good luck! Steve
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984. Last edited by Kasept : 08-30-2009 at 05:13 AM. 
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#2
08-29-2009, 07:55 AM
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1st, 5th, 13th OFF THE TURF currently...
However, thunderstorm apparently yet to hit (9am-ish), and potential remains for more of the grass events to wash off. Will keep advised.
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984.
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#4
08-29-2009, 08:57 AM
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__________________
"A person who saw no important difference between the fire outside a Neandrathal's cave and a working thermo-nuclear reactor might tell you that junk bonds and derivatives BOTH serve to energize capital" - Nathan Israel
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#5
08-29-2009, 09:16 AM
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G/L today VJ!
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984.
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#6
08-29-2009, 09:24 AM
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Kensei looks like Strong Hope to me. I'll be a bit surprised if he can beat the 2, 3, 4 and 6. And he's going to be a very short price to take given the likely pace scenario. Another that can win but I'm going in a different direction. G/L today!
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984.
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#8
08-29-2009, 12:11 PM
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Hello From Tom In San Diego
Hi Steve,hadn't had time to call and let you know that we all hope everything will be O.K. and I.m sorrey to hear about your mom.
That said Del Mar is going great and everyone should know that the track bias has dramaticly change to once again favoring outside pressers/closer and unless you get pure lone true speed at least the two turn races will be won from off the pace. Looks like Travers day is going to be Bigger than Breederscup out here ,What a Great card! I hope the scratches don't effect the races much but my question is how soft can they run on the turf?
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#12
08-29-2009, 08:35 PM
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Thanks for some great to picks today. If Rutherienne could have held on would of hit pic 6 by just keying most of your top pics, Think you had the last 4 on top. Keep up the great work. I know you were feeling off your first couple days back but like you say keep plugging. Sorry I missed you at the Spa last week but my thoughts and prayers are with you and your family.
__________________
" I may leave here empty handed, but you aren't going anywhere "
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#13
08-29-2009, 09:22 PM
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Its easy to question Todd now, as I think the Haskell turned out to be his demise today, but TAP said the horse was doing so good after the Tom Fool on JUly 4th there was no way to keep him in the barn until the end of August. So the Haskell was the perfect spot to take a shot, albeit against the best horse/filly on the planet. MY biggest single bet today was a Munnings-Summer Bird/Hold Me Back DD. I was right on 1 of the 10 Spa races I bet today and still made a sizeable profit. WHAT A GAME. Hope you had a good day at the windows.
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#14
08-29-2009, 09:31 PM
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#15
08-29-2009, 09:48 PM
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Any 7f race and the Cigar Mile, he will be heard from.
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#16
08-29-2009, 10:56 PM
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Great call Steve on the exclusion of two short priced horses. They'll both be heard from again, but you picked a PERFECT spot to go against. One of the main setbacks in the game that I still face, is knowing when to stand against a horse on the slop/against the bias. Would've had the tri for $10 in the 4th as opposed to the $2 I had it for, if I were able to pitch the 9 completely, who ran morbidly on an off-track prior to today.
__________________
"A person who saw no important difference between the fire outside a Neandrathal's cave and a working thermo-nuclear reactor might tell you that junk bonds and derivatives BOTH serve to energize capital" - Nathan Israel
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#17
08-30-2009, 08:17 AM
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GEE, V/J, Dec,
Thanks a lot... Was very pleased with the way I saw things for the most part, and only really missed the import in the stake and Get Stormy. Was a good day of racing considering the conditions. Became apparent early too that speed was useless Saturday, and that helped isolate players during the day. Hope everyone had a good Travers...
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984.
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