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#1
07-18-2009, 07:28 AM
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Thoro-Graph ROTW-VA Derby (+ Toga Seminars)
http://www.thorograph.com/ROTW/20090...nl0718r_09.pdf
Those interested in getting a grip on the Thoro-Graph approach/methodology should read Alan Benewitz' analysis of the Virginia Derby field. Alan wrote more extensively than usual about the development patterns of each entrant in this, and if you compare his written blurbs with the 'sheet' patterns, it gives you an excellent picture of how TG speed figures work and the wagering concept behind race views. Jerry Brown (Weeks 2 & 6), Alan (Weeks 1, 4 & 5) and Julian Weinberg (Week 3) and I present the Saratoga Thoro-Graph Seminars every weekend at Carolina Barbecue 11:00am-12:00noon...
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984. 
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#3
07-18-2009, 07:50 AM
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Court Vision won this race last year.
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#4
07-18-2009, 07:51 AM
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Quote:
There's a number of horses in this race whose career development is very distinct on the sheets. Note how Nicanor's races are alternating with the reaction last notably worse than the reaction two back. As Alan explains, he's still feeling the effects of the big, fast effort 4 back, and was headed for problems. Hold Me Back has the two efforts (the paired 2's on Poly) that are notably faster than anything anyone else has run. A return to that level should he take to the grass OK, and there's no reason to think he won't, makes him the likely winner. As Benewitz notes, both the Pletcher runners are in positon to run well at square prices, and the obvious other contenders seem OK but pretty underlaid. Anyway, no need for me to reiterate what was written... Point is that it's a great write up just to help people understand the slightly different, and frequently (highly) profitable method TG users employ to wager.
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984.
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#5
07-18-2009, 08:46 AM
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Quote:
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#6
07-18-2009, 09:04 AM
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I wouldn't read too much into Walden's comments. Mott always expected to run him on grass along the way. WinStar is trying to author his schedule with the hope that they can manufacture a three surface stallion. Mott is being practical and trying to get an effort in a lucrative and logical spot.
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984.
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#7
07-18-2009, 09:32 AM
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does the speaker work?
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#8
07-18-2009, 10:43 AM
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So at 11:30am on weekends there will be a Thoro-Graph and DRF/NYRA seminars going on at the same time within 50 feet of each other. Tough call.
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#9
07-18-2009, 11:06 AM
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"Trainer Goldberg is strong third off the layoff but one has to wonder about the bore outs (bo). Usually they’re not a good sign--they could signal potential physical problems or at the least, fatigue. Occasionally, counter-intuitively they point to better—the horse is gaining form and is trying his/her utmost so much so it wavers some but the effort is positive. That’s a tough read and an infrequent one. Much more often the pejorative implication is borne out—the horse bounces."
No kidding? Very informative. I particularly like the way the 'bore out' is tied to the 'bounce'. The 'bounce', a ubiquitous term that applies to just about anything. Of course, while Straight Story drifted out in his race at BEL, he was actually CARRIED OUT by Al Khali in the Colonial Cup. Does being carried out have the same intuitive and counter-intuitive implications as the 'bore out'? And, more importantly, how does it connect to the 'bounce'. I'm sure it does. If a horse is carried out while running a lower number does it bounce? Maybe next time someone who has actually watched a race can write some of this stuff.
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#10
07-18-2009, 11:16 AM
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That's being discussed. Gates open at 10:30 weekends, so we may roll the TG start back to 10:45 and go to 11:30. The TG host spends the afternoon at the Cue anyway and interacts all afternoon with the players.
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984.
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#11
07-18-2009, 11:27 AM
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Quote:
Benewitz is talking in generalities there about patterns, efforts and possible subsequent performance. While the specifics of this circumstance aren't perfect in terms of what caused Straight Story's 2 widening runs, they aren't that important overall to what the general understanding of bore outs typically mean down the road. The ROTW write up is meant as more of a teaching tool than as a unique individual betting opportunity. Some one else pointed out to Alan on the TG forum that Straight was carried out in the Cup.
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984.
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#12
07-18-2009, 11:35 AM
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Can you put it on Sirius?
Quote:
__________________
Don't sweat the petty things and don't pet the sweaty things.
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#13
07-18-2009, 11:46 AM
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Quote:
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984.
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#15
07-18-2009, 04:23 PM
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Steve,
You just don't know the thrill being at home in SC or anywhere and being able to tap into the pulse of what goes on at Saratoga, for all of use that are not fortunate to be there. Tried to not miss Siros seminars each day and now that that's gone, would really fill a void if you could do it early. Would think you'd get some good advertisers. Give it a think. Spyder Quote:
__________________
Don't sweat the petty things and don't pet the sweaty things.
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#16
07-18-2009, 04:44 PM
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#20
07-18-2009, 09:33 PM
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And I do broadcast the show live from Saratoga weekdays, so I think I have a feel for providing a pulse of the meet for those not there... If we do the TG seminars streaming weekends, the only advertiser needed would be Thoro-Graph itself.
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984.
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