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#1
07-27-2009, 02:49 PM
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The Art of Stealing Bases
I was just wondering why the stolen base has become something of a lost art in baseball? I know it can't be because players aren't as fast. Is it because of managers being too conservative? Players just not willing to take as many risks or not knowing how to run? I remeber back in the late 70's and early 80's when we had guys like Rickey Henderson and Vince Coleman going over 100 a few times and also guys like Ron LeFlore, Willie Wilson, Tim Raines, and Eric Davis who all went 80+. How about 1980 when Henderson stole 100 to lead the league, beating out LeFlore with 97 and Omar Moreno with 96?
Also, why aren't there more guys that can run and hit homers? I don't mean those 30/30 or even the 40/40 guys. To me, 30 or 40 steals isn't impressive. Since 1900, I looked at all the guys that have stolen at least 80 in a season. Only three of those guys hit more than 10 homers in the same season: Henderson 87 steals, 28 homers Eric Davis 80 steals, 27 homers Henderson 80 steals, 24 homers Raines 90 steals, 11 homers Henderson 130 steals, 10 homers Looking at it, Eric Davis was a pretty unique player. Not many had the speed to steal 80, the power to hit 37 homers, the ability to hit for a decent average, and the ability to be a Gold Glove outfielder.
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The real horses of the year (1986-2020) Manila, Java Gold, Alysheba, Sunday Silence, Go for Wand, In Excess, Paseana, Kotashaan, Holy Bull, Cigar, Alphabet Soup, Formal Gold, Skip Away, Artax, Tiznow, Point Given, Azeri, Candy Ride, Smarty Jones, Ghostzapper, Invasor, Curlin, Zenyatta, Zenyatta, Goldikova, Havre de Grace, Wise Dan, Wise Dan, California Chrome, American Pharoah, Arrogate, Gun Runner, Accelerate, Maximum Security, Gamine 
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#3
07-27-2009, 02:59 PM
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Most stolen bases are stolen off the pitcher not the catchers. In the 70's/80's pitchers had such high leg kicks that it made it much easier for the runners. Now with shorter deliveries and things like the slide step it makes things much harder on the runners.
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Felix Unger talking to Oscar Madison: "Your horse could finish third by 20 lengths and they still pay you? And you have been losing money for all these years?!"
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#4
07-27-2009, 03:09 PM
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Do they emphasze stolen bases that much in the DR, Venezualua, etc? The swing from African American players to Central America the past 20 years has been very big and I wonder if that has anything to do with it. When Alexi Ramirez, who is very fast, came to the Sox from Cuba he had to be "taught" how to steal bases. He's still not there yet.
With ballparks getting smaller, the balls being juiced, the players being juiced, it just seems that small ball has taken a back seat. When CF is 400 yards away, not 460, it's harder to justify manufacturing runs.
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#5
07-27-2009, 03:13 PM
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#6
07-27-2009, 03:17 PM
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Then you have the power hitters generally in the middle of the lineup and guys in the middle of the lineup don't run as much.
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#7
07-27-2009, 04:07 PM
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Carl Crawford is on pace for 65 steals and 15 homers and Ian Kinsler has a shot at 30/30. That's not to bad.
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#8
07-27-2009, 04:12 PM
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The real horses of the year (1986-2020) Manila, Java Gold, Alysheba, Sunday Silence, Go for Wand, In Excess, Paseana, Kotashaan, Holy Bull, Cigar, Alphabet Soup, Formal Gold, Skip Away, Artax, Tiznow, Point Given, Azeri, Candy Ride, Smarty Jones, Ghostzapper, Invasor, Curlin, Zenyatta, Zenyatta, Goldikova, Havre de Grace, Wise Dan, Wise Dan, California Chrome, American Pharoah, Arrogate, Gun Runner, Accelerate, Maximum Security, Gamine
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#9
07-27-2009, 04:59 PM
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http://www.usatoday.com/sports/baseb...rson-hof_N.htm "Henderson also says he thinks the record will never be broken. Not in today's game. Too many stopwatches. Too much caution. Too little trust in the baserunner. "They came up with that stopwatch and you drill it in a guy that (when the) clock is such and such time, you can run," says Henderson, who from 1979 to 2003 played on nine major league teams. "Hey, wait a minute, you're telling me I can't beat the guy? So they drill that into kids' heads … These kids, maybe, don't want to get that dirty. As a football player, I loved getting hit and loved getting in the dirt, so it didn't bother me. Now the kids, they're coming up, 'Oh, I'm hurt. I'm this.' Come on, man."
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"I don't feel like that I am any better than anybody else" - Paul Newman
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#10
07-27-2009, 06:03 PM
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Advanced statistical analysis has shown that it isnt worth losing an out for a base. You also dont see much sacrificing outside of the pitcher anymore either. Especially in the roids era where so many players had plus power.
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#11
07-27-2009, 09:24 PM
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Anybody see Pujols try to steal a double out of a single tonite? That's like the last guy in the league to try to do that on, and he was out by a whole lot.
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#12
07-28-2009, 09:18 AM
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#13
07-28-2009, 12:35 PM
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#14
07-28-2009, 01:30 PM
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Since 1900, there have been 23 recorded seasons of 80 steals or more. The four between 1910-12 don't have the number of times caught stealing but the other 19 do. The success rates:
Henderson-130 steals/42 thrown out-75.6% Brock-118/33-78.1 Coleman-110/25-81.5 Coleman-109/22-83.2 Henderson-108/19-85.0 Coleman-107/14-88.4 Wills-104/13-88.9 Henderson-100/26-79.4 LeFlore-97/19-83.6 Cobb-96/38-71.6 Moreno-96/33-74.4 Wills-94/31-75.2 Henderson-93/13-87.7 Raines-90/14-86.5 Henderson-87/18-82.9 Wilson-83/12-87.4 Coleman-81/27-75.0 Davis-80/11-87.9 Henderson-80/10-88.9
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The real horses of the year (1986-2020) Manila, Java Gold, Alysheba, Sunday Silence, Go for Wand, In Excess, Paseana, Kotashaan, Holy Bull, Cigar, Alphabet Soup, Formal Gold, Skip Away, Artax, Tiznow, Point Given, Azeri, Candy Ride, Smarty Jones, Ghostzapper, Invasor, Curlin, Zenyatta, Zenyatta, Goldikova, Havre de Grace, Wise Dan, Wise Dan, California Chrome, American Pharoah, Arrogate, Gun Runner, Accelerate, Maximum Security, Gamine
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#15
07-28-2009, 02:42 PM
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Further analysis.
I looked to see what the run % was of all the 80+ base stealers. I took runs scored/plate appearances. Then I did the same thing with the yearly league leaders (both leagues) from 2000-2008. Henderson-130 steals.....75.6 success rate.......18.1 run % Brock-118........78.1..........15.0 Coleman-110......81.5........15.5 Coleman-109......83.2........17.2 Henderson-108....85.0.......16.9 Coleman-107.......88.4.......14.0 Wills-104............88.9.......17.1 Henderson-100....79.4.......15.4 LeFlore-97.........83.6........16.2 Cobb-96............71.6........20.6 Moreno-96.........74.4........11.7 Wills-94.............75.2........13.0 Henderson-93......87.7.......18.2 Raines-90...........86.5.........18.5 Milan-88............n/a..........15.6 Henderson-87......82.9........18.5 Cobb-83............n/a..........22.5 Wilson-83..........87.4.........17.7 Bescher-81.......n/a............14.8 Coleman-81.......75.0..........11.3 Collins-81..........n/a...........12.3 Davis-80...........87.9..........19.9 Henderson-80....88.9..........22.3 2000 NL-Luis Castillo-62...............73.8.....16.1 AL-Johnny Damon-46...........83.6......18.4 2001 NL-Juan Pierre-46................73.0.....15.8 NL-Jimmy Rollins-46..............85.2.....13.5 AL-Ichiro Suzuki-56..............80.0.....17.2 2002 NL-Luis Castillo-48..............76.2......12.9 AL-Alfonso Soriano-41.........75.9......17.3 2003 NL-Juan Pierre-65...............76.5......13.4 AL-Carl Crawford-55............84.6......12.1 2004 NL-Scott Posednik-70...........84.3....11.9 AL-Carl Crawford-59.............79.7.....15.5 2005 NL-Jose Reyes-60................80.0.....13.5 AL-Chone Figgins-62...........78.5......15.7 2006 NL-Jose Reyes-64...............79.0.....17.4 AL-Carl Crawford-58............86.6......13.7 2007 NL-Jose Reyes-78................78.8....15.6 AL-Carl Crawford-50.............83.3....14.9 AL-Brian Roberts-50............87.7......14.4 2008 NL-Willy Taveras-68.............90.7......11.9 AL-Jacoby Ellsbury-50..........82.0......16.1
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The real horses of the year (1986-2020) Manila, Java Gold, Alysheba, Sunday Silence, Go for Wand, In Excess, Paseana, Kotashaan, Holy Bull, Cigar, Alphabet Soup, Formal Gold, Skip Away, Artax, Tiznow, Point Given, Azeri, Candy Ride, Smarty Jones, Ghostzapper, Invasor, Curlin, Zenyatta, Zenyatta, Goldikova, Havre de Grace, Wise Dan, Wise Dan, California Chrome, American Pharoah, Arrogate, Gun Runner, Accelerate, Maximum Security, Gamine
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#16
07-28-2009, 02:53 PM
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From those comparisons, I noticed a couple of things. For the guys that stole 80+, they often had a better success rate of stealing and scored runs at a higher percentage.
The 80+ guys had 12 of 19 seasons where the success rate was 80% or more. The leaders from this decade have 11/20. You would think that with guys being more selective these days and picking their spots, the success rates would go up. The run % were higher for those big base stealers too. 15%+ 80s-17 of 23 seasons 2000s-11 of 20 seasons 18%+ 80s-8 of 23 seasons 2000s-1 of 20 seasons Cannon says that studies show that it isn't worth losing an out for a base but the guys that took more chances and stole more bases scored runs at a higher percentage were able to do so without sacrificing their success rates and were putting themselves in scoring position and scoring more runs than these guys are today.
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The real horses of the year (1986-2020) Manila, Java Gold, Alysheba, Sunday Silence, Go for Wand, In Excess, Paseana, Kotashaan, Holy Bull, Cigar, Alphabet Soup, Formal Gold, Skip Away, Artax, Tiznow, Point Given, Azeri, Candy Ride, Smarty Jones, Ghostzapper, Invasor, Curlin, Zenyatta, Zenyatta, Goldikova, Havre de Grace, Wise Dan, Wise Dan, California Chrome, American Pharoah, Arrogate, Gun Runner, Accelerate, Maximum Security, Gamine
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#17
07-28-2009, 02:56 PM
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The Sabermatricians analyzed all the historical records they could get their hands on to determine how individual players scored runs and helped their team win. They determined that the most important thing a batter could do was keep from getting out. Stealing bases and sacrifice bunting do not help a team score runs. A batter's most important responsibility to his team is to get on base -- be it by hit or walk. This conclusion is not based on opinion or tradition; it's supported by evidence from actual games.
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#18
07-28-2009, 03:16 PM
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From The Book blogs
Have you guys ever done a study (or know of someone who has done a study) on the optimal stolen base percentage for a given player? I don’t know the exact number, but let’s say the break-even stolen base percentage is 67%. If a player steals at a rate of 60% with 20 attempts, then the right thing for him to do is to reduce the number of attempts, specifically the tougher attempts against better throwing catchers or tricky pitchers with good moves to first. That’s a pretty easy one. But I also think if a player steals at a rate of 84% (I’m thinking of Tim Raines), he probably didn’t attempt enough steals. Surely ther were situations where he would have had a 73% chance of success, but he didn’t make an attempt for whatever reason (fear of failure? fear of lowering his SB%? saving his legs/body against the brutalness of sliding head-first into second?) whether reasonable or not, he didn’t. So, a player specific question I’m interested in is: did Tim Raines attempt enough Stolen Bases in his career? Given his talents and success rate, was he playing suboptimally by not attempting enough steals? I think there are a ton of factors that needs to be considered, including stealing 2nd vs stealing 3rd, game situations, possibly helping the batter hit better by staying at first, protecting his body in a long season/career, etc. etc. The best way to get me to quote a reader is by saying “Tim Raines”. Yes, I have thought about that. Not so much Tim Raines, since he attempted quite alot of SB, but more about Carlos Beltran, who has an even higher SB success rate than Raines, but attempts far fewer bases. I would guess that the “beating up the body” is the best reason to err on the side of caution. That perhaps a player, be it Raines, Rickey, Coleman, Beltran, Ichiro, etc, could attempt more steals on situations where they think they would be successful 75% of the time, but they don’t do it, because the extra cost on their bodies. If you make the SB worth +.02 wins and the CS as -.04 wins, then a 75% success rate means adding .005 wins per attempt. If there are 20 such attempts that these runners are giving up, they are giving up 0.1 wins in a season (i.e., 1 run). I think it’s worth giving up that run, if it means not having to have their bodies pound against the dirt an extra 20 times on a play that is a bit over break-even.
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#19
07-28-2009, 03:20 PM
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__________________
The real horses of the year (1986-2020) Manila, Java Gold, Alysheba, Sunday Silence, Go for Wand, In Excess, Paseana, Kotashaan, Holy Bull, Cigar, Alphabet Soup, Formal Gold, Skip Away, Artax, Tiznow, Point Given, Azeri, Candy Ride, Smarty Jones, Ghostzapper, Invasor, Curlin, Zenyatta, Zenyatta, Goldikova, Havre de Grace, Wise Dan, Wise Dan, California Chrome, American Pharoah, Arrogate, Gun Runner, Accelerate, Maximum Security, Gamine
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#20
07-28-2009, 03:27 PM
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Linear Mode
