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  #1  
Old 05-07-2009, 05:19 PM
Rupert Pupkin Rupert Pupkin is offline
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Default (At) What Odds Will Rachel Go Off?

Assuming that Rachel Alexandra runs in the Preakness, what odds do you guys think she will go off at? We still don't know for sure who will be in there. Jones is now saying that Fresian Fire will run. Papa Clem and Musket Man are supposed to run. I don't know if POTN will run or not.

Rachel has been so impressive that she will obviously be the favorite. But I think some of those other horses will get play so I don't think RA will be odds-on. I'm guessing she goes off at around even-money. What do you guys think?
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  #2  
Old 05-07-2009, 05:21 PM
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Depends on how big of a field it is. I say 3-2. There are enough doubts (or at least there should be) about her competition to keep her above even-money.
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  #3  
Old 05-07-2009, 05:25 PM
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Put me in for 2.40/1
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  #4  
Old 05-07-2009, 05:39 PM
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4/5
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  #5  
Old 05-07-2009, 05:45 PM
Rupert Pupkin Rupert Pupkin is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ateamstupid
Depends on how big of a field it is. I say 3-2. There are enough doubts (or at least there should be) about her competition to keep her above even-money.
I rarely bet favorites, but I will bet her if she is anything close to those odds. I'm not impressed by any of the colts that will be in there. If there was a horse like Quality Road in there, it would be a totally different story. But I don't see any really good colts in there. RA is the best filly I have ever seen. I would bet her at 3-2 against a cast of mediocre colts.
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  #6  
Old 05-07-2009, 06:02 PM
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Looking at the field so far, 8/5.
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  #7  
Old 05-07-2009, 06:33 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin
Assuming that Rachel Alexandra runs in the Preakness, what odds do you guys think she will go off at? We still don't know for sure who will be in there. Jones is now saying that Fresian Fire will run. Papa Clem and Musket Man are supposed to run. I don't know if POTN will run or not.

Rachel has been so impressive that she will obviously be the favorite. But I think some of those other horses will get play so I don't think RA will be odds-on. I'm guessing she goes off at around even-money. What do you guys think?
I'm betting against her and might eat my words but i think she'll get beat,why
because i want her to, no other reason.
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  #8  
Old 05-07-2009, 06:35 PM
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I'm more interested to see what MTB and the others go off at...
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  #9  
Old 05-07-2009, 06:43 PM
hockey2315 hockey2315 is offline
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And I the only one who thinks she's a big play against? (Not that she won't be the best horse in the race)
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  #10  
Old 05-07-2009, 06:44 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by hockey2315
And I the only one who thinks she's a big play against? (Not that she won't be the best horse in the race)
No I agree, Papa Clem and Musket Man look like good options to me.
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  #11  
Old 05-07-2009, 06:56 PM
hockey2315 hockey2315 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by IrishofNDMan
No I agree, Papa Clem and Musket Man look like good options to me.
I'm not particularly crazy about either one of them either, though. . . I don't know much about Hull but maybe he's the real deal. . .
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  #12  
Old 05-07-2009, 09:14 PM
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A really good question...Numbers players will pound her...except for the sheets guys who will expect a bounce.

I say 2-1 or 3/2....and it will be a freaking gift unless she doesnt relax. That will be her eventual undoing, IMO. She hasnt been eye-ball to eye-ball in the lane in a long while.
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  #13  
Old 05-08-2009, 09:19 AM
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Thunder Gulch Thunder Gulch is offline
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If there are 14 (13 colts) in the race, RA will be 2-1 or so. The other question is what odds will MTB be? Think about how nuts it is for the Oaks winner to be 2-1 or less in the Preakness, while the Derby winner is 8-1 or more......
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  #14  
Old 05-08-2009, 09:56 AM
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I'll go with odds of 8/5 or less...............she won't get any of my money (on top at least). She just increases the value of the other runners in the race. Now, just have to find somebody else to settle on. !@#$%^&
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  #15  
Old 05-08-2009, 11:08 AM
Split Rock Split Rock is offline
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She will likely be around even money...maybe 6-5. It's not often one looks at a PP of grade 1 race and it shows 1st by 20 1/4. That will be hard to overlook.
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  #16  
Old 05-08-2009, 12:45 PM
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put me down for 9/5 .............i'm gonna use Big Drama
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  #17  
Old 05-08-2009, 01:20 PM
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With Mine That Bird being 50-1 or so in the Derby, nothing will surprise me. But if I had a gun to my head... I'd say she's 5-2/3-1 and he's a tick or two higher. Handicappers won't bet MTB, but the public will.
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  #18  
Old 05-08-2009, 01:24 PM
robfla robfla is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Travis Stone
With Mine That Bird being 50-1 or so in the Derby, nothing will surprise me. But if I had a gun to my head... I'd say she's 5-2/3-1 and he's a tick or two higher. Handicappers won't bet MTB, but the public will.
The public, especially the women, will bet the "female" horse before the "Derby" horse.
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  #19  
Old 05-09-2009, 10:09 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pgardn
Be there or be square,
I swear.

I want you to bed by 10:00 pm tonight, lights off.
Light breakfast, get the eye drops in.
I would expect you to be at the track at 5 am
just in case she works in the dark. (Mobile lighting)

Since she wins the Oaks under a light jog I expect
you convince connections to go Preakness.
ONE MILLION DOLLARS.

Lemoncruch:
First, if they wanted $1 million, they should have "jogged" in the Arkansas Derby. No chance they spend the ridiculous supplemental fee now just to run in the preakness since she is not triple crown nominated.
yikes...

And now she will be favored.
Bizarre.
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  #20  
Old 05-09-2009, 10:25 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by hockey2315
I'm not particularly crazy about either one of them either, though. . . I don't know much about Hull but maybe he's the real deal. . .
Oh god I'm turning into John White and POTN, but he's the only one I would potentially play in this spot instead of Rachel. She'd offer, in my eyes, really good value at anything above 2-1...but I have been waiting for Hull to stretch out, and he's done absolutely nothing wrong yet. Pace doesn't seem to bother him, tougher competition hasn't either -- and though the waters get much, much deeper here, he's got an interesting pedigree to handle two bends. Would have preferred to see him stretch out in a spot like the Lone Star Derby against softer company first, but I won't really play against him until he gives me a reason to...and he hasn't come close to doing that yet.
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