Pick 4 methodology

[ceejay]

I’m publishing this based on a request by SCAV regarding my Pick 4 methodology.

I’ve come to learn that how you bet is as important as what you bet. I’ve had significant success with Pick 4’s, with numerous 4 digit pays. The key to my plays is multiple tickets. I use Bet-smart.com’s Pick4Pro to develop the tickets. I consider Bet-smart part of my “edge.”

Betsmart is basically a complex macro-driven spreadsheet. http://bet-smart.com is sold by Steve Martin, and I will not send out copies of this licensed software (I have made some modifications to it – in the odds-line creation realm—which I could send to licensed users).

Pick 4’s, of course, require being right, four times if played on a single ticket. On my multi-ticket plays, I view it as being “not very wrong” once in four times as long as some of my top picks win. The software (if I understand it correctly) takes the oddsline that the user inputs and calculates combinations based on probabilities that the user inputs. This lets me go deeper in legs if my top choices win others.

I’ll use Saturday’s ticket as an example. It lost because of mis-handicapping leg D—I made the winner, #6 my fifth choice at 7-1 with the lowest odds favorite of the sequence. If I’d made the 6 horse in the nightcap 4-1, then I would have hit for ~$1800 on a $151 play. Here’s my odds-lines (the total probability of a race [SIGMA (1/(odds+1) for math nerds] relates to how much a race is used):


If I’d gone out to 1200:1 I’d have hit it but put $529 in bets down to do it (only ~5/2 return) and that would be poor value in my opinion.. I was live to $450, 1400, and 4000 payouts but they didn’t get there. If I’d better-handicapped the Whitney I would have given the speedballs no chance (or certainly worse than 5-1 chance) and rated them worse and I could have hit for $383, but even that would have been a loser if the #1 wasn’t dropped from parimutuel in leg A. You can see above that I allowed four top choices in a given ticket because only one of my top plays was a likely favorite. If there are favorites on top then I set the “Max Level 1 Horses” to 2 because Pick 4’s with 3 or 4 favorites seem to pay too short. I’d rather not win than cash and lose money. Here is the $135 play along with relative weightings.


Now, playing 7*7*6*4 would cost $1176 (and still lost!), but insisting on being really right cut the play cost to $135.

Users can also use morning lines and modify slightly if they want.

This is really meant to open a discussion. I’ll gladly field questions….

[Scav]

That is some SERIOUS stuff. I am going to check out the software, seems like it is for the hardcore at heart.

[31lengths]

ooooo....my head......

[SCUDSBROTHER]

I get enough of the f'n Oakland A's colors as it is.

[ceejay]

Originally Posted by SCUDSBROTHER

I get enough of the f'n Oakland A's colors as it is.

What?

[SCUDSBROTHER]

Originally Posted by ceejay

What?

Green,Yellow,and White...

[Gander]

I get enough of the f'n Oakland A's colors as it is.

Thats classic Scuds. My head is spinning from all that data.

The Pik bets are entertaining. But thats about it. Ask Scuds for the reasoning.

[ceejay]

Originally Posted by pgardn

The Pik bets are entertaining. But thats about it. Ask Scuds for the reasoning.

I couldn't agree less. at 25% takeout that's 6.25%/race in P4. Please give me any reasoning that shows they are bad bets.

[Scav]

From what I can gather, this is for the SERIOUS gambler, one that has time and plays one or two circuits all year round. The fact is that most of us can't afford $1200 Pick six tickets or $120 pick four total tickets. I absolutley love the concept and I actually do it on a much smaller scale when I am playing exactas sometimes.

Thanks again ceejay, if you would have put the colors to Red, Gray and yellow you would have had scuds as a friend for life

Originally Posted by ceejay

I couldn't agree less. at 25% takeout that's 6.25%/race in P4. Please give me any reasoning that shows they are bad bets.

I will give you one. I have given others, its a big list.

1. You have no flippin idea the size of the pool. Therefore you have no flippin idea what the reward will be. Example. I won a pik 3 this year that paid more than the same overlapped pik 4. Did anybody know there was a discrepancy in the pool so they could bet it? Hell no. There is no risk v. reward determination because you do not know the reward.

If you want more I will go on at a later time. Got lots more on the pik bets. By the way, lets not get this confused. A pik 4 bet is ONE bet on 4 races. Dont falsely assume someone is going to play the same 4 races separately, as you have already done in your example. You have already made a huge ASSUMPTION that someone is forced to play those 4 races.

And dont think you can accurately estimate the payout by taking the odds of the 4 winners and multiplying them.

And yes I occasionally play pik bets because it is FUN and challenging to arrange a ticket that is not too costly and has a chance.

[1st_Saturday_in_May]

Wow, thats deep, lol! Seems like you hit quite a bit and if you've got it down then congrats. On another note I'm 1 - 1 betting Pick 3's in my life ... hit the early one at Mountaineer today, lol. I just love the way that sounds talking to guys who've been betting that kind of **** for years and daily...

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by pgardn

I will give you one. I have given others, its a big list.

1. You have no flippin idea the size of the pool. Therefore you have no flippin idea what the reward will be. Example. I won a pik 3 this year that paid more than the same overlapped pik 4. Did anybody know there was a discrepancy in the pool so they could bet it? Hell no. There is no risk v. reward determination because you do not know the reward.

If you want more I will go on at a later time. Got lots more on the pik bets. By the way, lets not get this confused. A pik 4 bet is ONE bet on 4 races. Dont falsely assume someone is going to play the same 4 races separately, as you have already done in your example. You have already made a huge ASSUMPTION that someone is forced to play those 4 races.

And dont think you can accurately estimate the payout by taking the odds of the 4 winners and multiplying them.

And yes I occasionally play pik bets because it is FUN and challenging to arrange a ticket that is not too costly and has a chance.

pgardn, do you really have no idea about the pool sizes of PK3's and 4's? The pool sizes are published daily in the results charts so you can get an idea of the size of the pools for the tracks you like to play. at Saratoga they are in the range of $250K to $400K or more. 3's and 4' offer great rewards. take a look at the two pick fours at Toga today.

[SCUDSBROTHER]

The pick 3/4 bets aren't perfect.They are I.M.O. the best bets out there.You are playing 3 or 4 races without paying 15-20 % take out on each race.You pay 14-25% one time.If you can't see the value in that,then I have learned that nothing I can write will change your mind.There is a flaw in the p3/p4 bets,and that is what Pgrdn is referring to when he says you don't know what the payouts will be.See,if somebody wants to put 15-20 k on their hidden horse it is difficult to do that without it impacting the win odds severely.It depends on where the race is etc.,but I will use an example of a last race on a Sunday at Hollywood Park.I think the horse paid about $38 to win.The win pool was only about 170-180k or so.They couldn't put 20k into that pool.I think I calculated that they would only get 6 or 7/1 if they did that.So,they left the win pool alone(hence $38 for a horse who was really ready to win in his 1st start,and even with a bad start,and chasing a lone speed favorite.)The late double,and late pick 3 also paid about what you would expect for a combo with a $38 horse in it.However,the pick 4 paid less than half what it really should have paid.The horse paid off like about a 9-1or a 10-1 in the late pick4.This is where they put their 20k.They got paid 9-1 to 10-1 for their 20k versus 6-1 or so(if they had put the money in the win pool.)They need a pool that has like 400k in it.Their payoff is less impacted by their 20k in that pool.It happens,but it doesn't happen enough to make the p3/p4 a bad bet.It is a way to hide money though.It is not a perfect bet.It is the best bet they offer though(even with the risk that somebody is hiding a large amount of money in that pool.)

[ceejay]

Originally Posted by pgardn

I will give you one. I have given others, its a big list.

1. You have no flippin idea the size of the pool. Therefore you have no flippin idea what the reward will be. Example. I won a pik 3 this year that paid more than the same overlapped pik 4. Did anybody know there was a discrepancy in the pool so they could bet it? Hell no. There is no risk v. reward determination because you do not know the reward.

If you want more I will go on at a later time. Got lots more on the pik bets. By the way, lets not get this confused. A pik 4 bet is ONE bet on 4 races. Dont falsely assume someone is going to play the same 4 races separately, as you have already done in your example. You have already made a huge ASSUMPTION that someone is forced to play those 4 races.

And dont think you can accurately estimate the payout by taking the odds of the 4 winners and multiplying them.

And yes I occasionally play pik bets because it is FUN and challenging to arrange a ticket that is not too costly and has a chance.

Pool size: history gives us a pretty good idea.
Payouts ARE unknown. Experience is a guide. Experience tells me that I want no more than 2 favorites or the payout will disappoiont. If you can accurately predict downstream favoritism-- which I think I can, this software can help avoid low payouts.
I have never assumed that you have to play any race. I only play P4's that have races that my data tells me I can handicap. I avoid them if there are maiden races (which I suck at) or I can't figure one race out. My general guide is to limit the number of runners seriously used in a race to (starters/2)-1.

[Scav]

Originally Posted by pgardn

I will give you one. I have given others, its a big list.

1. You have no flippin idea the size of the pool. Therefore you have no flippin idea what the reward will be. Example. I won a pik 3 this year that paid more than the same overlapped pik 4. Did anybody know there was a discrepancy in the pool so they could bet it? Hell no. There is no risk v. reward determination because you do not know the reward.

If you want more I will go on at a later time. Got lots more on the pik bets. By the way, lets not get this confused. A pik 4 bet is ONE bet on 4 races. Dont falsely assume someone is going to play the same 4 races separately, as you have already done in your example. You have already made a huge ASSUMPTION that someone is forced to play those 4 races.

And dont think you can accurately estimate the payout by taking the odds of the 4 winners and multiplying them.

And yes I occasionally play pik bets because it is FUN and challenging to arrange a ticket that is not too costly and has a chance.

Yo Pat, you know the pool size, I always look with 3MTP to see if it is worth playing. Youbet has an exotics window that shows you how much is in each pool and most CHDN tracks and some others show how much is in the pools periodically leading up to post time

[ceejay]

Originally Posted by Scav

From what I can gather, this is for the SERIOUS gambler, one that has time and plays one or two circuits all year round. The fact is that most of us can't afford $1200 Pick six tickets or $120 pick four total tickets. I absolutley love the concept and I actually do it on a much smaller scale when I am playing exactas sometimes.

For what it's worth I only play 1-2 days/week.

The Barry Meadow method is also an option. It requires the user separate their choices into A (1/race) and B choices. Then pick how many A choices must win to cash. So if you went 2x3x5x6 it would cost $62 on 11 tickets. $62 would also buy you a 2x3x3x3 with $8 left over for a hot dog and beer without that requirement.

http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/094...e=UTF8&s=books
$16 is a lot cheaper than $149. and it ends up working similar to Betsmart in the $40-60 ticket range....

[Thunder Gulch]

CJ, I was about to mention Meadow's book. It has a lot of valuable wagering charts for those looking for exotic overlays.

[SentToStud]

Originally Posted by ceejay

I’m publishing this based on a request by SCAV regarding my Pick 4 methodology. .....

....This is really meant to open a discussion. I’ll gladly field questions….

Couple Q's:
1. What are you using for "hold?" By this I mean you are going to be wrong at times on horses that are tosses. What percentage -- or range of percentage -- are you allocating for being wrong on your tosses?

2. Do you ever press on a horse you expect to win at an overlayed price? I didn't see any opportunity for multiple winning tickets in your sample, though I may have missed it.

3. P-3/4 "systems" will work against a bettor, imo, when you go deeper in later legs vs earlier legs. When putting a ticket together, I find FAR greater value in having a single or a "shallow" leg at/near the end of the sequence vs at the beginning. Do you agree/disagree?

[ceejay]

Originally Posted by SentToStud

Couple Q's:
1. What are you using for "hold?" By this I mean you are going to be wrong at times on horses that are tosses. What percentage -- or range of percentage -- are you allocating for being wrong on your tosses?

2. Do you ever press on a horse you expect to win at an overlayed price? I didn't see any opportunity for multiple winning tickets in your sample, though I may have missed it.

3. P-3/4 "systems" will work against a bettor, imo, when you go deeper in later legs vs earlier legs. When putting a ticket together, I find FAR greater value in having a single or a "shallow" leg at/near the end of the sequence vs at the beginning. Do you agree/disagree?

1. I really haven't tracked that in detail. Probably should. The 6 horse in leg D saturday was not a complete toss. I would say 85-90% of the races I bet P4's in I can not toss the winner. That translates to a 52-72% chance of having a shot.

2a. Yes. By upgrading the probabilities on who I think is a live longashot. That's why the 9 in leg A was made 3-1.
2b. Yes, by manipulating the software and limiting the odds range to where you want to overplay.

3. I let the race dictate the bet, so go shallow where I'm more comfortable. But I often go deeper in the first leg to avoid 1 and done. Really more of an emotional thing for me.