A Derby fave?

MISTERGEE · #1 05-04-2008, 07:24 PM

let me start by saying I did not pick the derby exacta or tri however found it very interesting Big Brown as 2-1 fave was seeming ly not liked by many of the so called experts. I refer to saturdays racing form derby pages 32-33. there were listed the picks of 20 of the top handicappers the form has to offer and exactly 3 of the 20 handicappers chose BB to win. 4 0f them did not even pick BB in their top 4 selections, and none of them had the exacta even with choosing 4 horses except for mary rampellini who threw in the filly with as her 4th choice. this game must be even harder than I thought

MaTH716 · #2 05-04-2008, 07:43 PM

I guess no one wanted to take a 5-2 shot breaking from the 20 post in his 4th career start. Who would have thought that he would be able to race 4 wide the whole way and win for fun. I am not suprised, but I tossed him on Saturday and I would do it again.

cal828 · #3 05-04-2008, 08:02 PM

That does seem strange after the horse did what many deemed nearly impossible when he won the Florida Derby. Now, he's won the Kentucky Derby from what many said was an impossible post and there's a whole chorus of folks who are saying he can't win the triple crown. Ain't horseracing and the triple crown in particular grand? I love it when they start this stuff like, "no gelding has won since 1915" and "no horse has won from the 20 post since."..(whenever. Actually, I think it was Clyde Van Dusen in both cases) and what were some of the other mantras? No BC juvy winner can win the derby and a filly can't win the Belmont. It makes me think the winning of the triple crown is not far away. History is on the side of the naysayers, but the Kentucky Derby and the Triple Crown itself seem to often fly in the face of conventional wisdom.

Danzig · #4 05-04-2008, 09:13 PM

i don't think anyone is saying he can't win the triple crown. what many are saying, such as myself, is that it's not a foregone conclusion. he has to earn what many before have tried to earn, and for one reason or another, didn't or couldn't.

fpsoxfan · #5 05-05-2008, 05:44 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Danzig

i don't think anyone is saying he can't win the triple crown. what many are saying, such as myself, is that it's not a foregone conclusion. he has to earn what many before have tried to earn, and for one reason or another, didn't or couldn't.

Good Point. He has many roadblocks to get through first icluding his soundness. The last thing any of us want is a breakdown in the Preakness or the Belmont. Whether he does it or not, I just hope he makes it through safely.

Danzig · #6 05-05-2008, 06:29 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by fpsoxfan

Good Point. He has many roadblocks to get through first icluding his soundness. The last thing any of us want is a breakdown in the Preakness or the Belmont. Whether he does it or not, I just hope he makes it through safely.

me too

ShadowRoll · #7 05-05-2008, 07:12 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MaTH716

I guess no one wanted to take a 5-2 shot breaking from the 20 post in his 4th career start. Who would have thought that he would be able to race 4 wide the whole way and win for fun. I am not suprised, but I tossed him on Saturday and I would do it again.

Good point. Leaving BB off your tickets (at least the top of your tickets) was the right play. It was a losing play, as things turned out, but it was the right play.

pointman · #8 05-05-2008, 09:16 AM

Picking a Derby favorite does not do much for a handicapper, everyone says, wow, he/she picked the favorite, how hard is that? However, picking a longshot that the capper gets lucky enough and wins can make a name for a handicapper. There really is not much incentive for these people to pick the favorite in the Derby. I remember the NY Post praising Debbie Little for days because she picked Giacomo.

MISTERGEE · #9 05-05-2008, 10:49 AM

I am not sure if this is the time to pick for "value" in a 20 horse field, if you key off the winner at least you have a shot at an over 3k tri and 58k super, only 3 of those 20 cappers had a shot at that.

MaTH716 · #10 05-05-2008, 10:52 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MISTERGEE

I am not sure if this is the time to pick for "value" in a 20 horse field, if you key off the winner at least you have a shot at an over 3k tri and 58k super, only 3 of those 20 cappers had a shot at that.

I would think that the all button would of had to be used somewhere.

Payson Dave · #11 05-05-2008, 12:49 PM

At a little over 2/1 there clearly was some big money put on BB....
For those that really liked him, the $3400 triple was definately hit-able....one over six over six for a buck is $30...I did not play any triples but both the filly and DOC were in my top seven...

SniperSB23 · #12 05-05-2008, 12:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Payson Dave

At a little over 2/1 there clearly was some big money put on BB....
For those that really liked him, the $3400 triple was definately hit-able....one over six over six for a buck is $30...I did not play any triples but both the filly and DOC were in my top seven...

Yeah, same here. I tossed him from my wagering expecting low payouts and instead had him hit over three horses I liked and played in the 2nd and 3rd spots on all my tickets and winced when I saw the payouts. I guess the Derby is the one race where you can just toss value out the window cause you are going to get a nice payout even with the chalk on top.

MISTERGEE · #13 05-05-2008, 01:14 PM

my point exactly with a 20 horse field and many derby only players playing colors and favorite numbers dont worry about the prices for the exotics they will be there no matter what. even in the oaks 1st, 3rd and 4th choice paid $239 for the tri and $1395 for the super. yes worry about value, but not on big days like this

ShadowRoll · #14 05-05-2008, 02:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MISTERGEE

I am not sure if this is the time to pick for "value" in a 20 horse field, if you key off the winner at least you have a shot at an over 3k tri and 58k super, only 3 of those 20 cappers had a shot at that.

Value is always a consideration. What you seem to be saying is not that using BB was not a value play, but that using BB was still a value play in the exotics, even at 2-1.

Fair enough, if you believed he was a lock. If you thought he was vulnerable, then keying him just wasn't the smart thing to do. I'm not so sure that all those pro cappers refused to play him just because he was the favorite. Maybe they honestly thought BB was't as good as claimed.

On these big days, you can use the favorite and go wide underneath with the rightful belief that you can still make money. Or you can swing for the fences by leaving out the public's choice with the rightful belief that you can make an obscene amount of money. Most people's bankrolls are not big enough to do both.

It's easy, with 20-20 hindsight, to point out that the tri had a decent payout with the favorite on top. Unfortunately, bets have to be made before the race. Given the information we had about BB before the race, I still say it wasn't a bad move to bet against him.