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#1
04-12-2008, 09:45 AM
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Tampa Saturday 04-12-08
Pick 4
Race 8 (another Tampa maiden race loaded with firsters with potential, let's try to find the next Hungarian Gent): 7 - St. Blaine's Quill - Been working well for his debut. Camilo very good with firsters with a small sample. Flame Thrower better than average with firsters and the dam's babies are 1 for 3 at first asking.(Even money that Grunder says "The familiar colors of L and D Farm" either going into the gate or during the race.) 9 - Tax and Spend - Jeffries not the greatest with firsters, Adonis not the greatest with firsters, the dam's babies are 0 for 3 first out. That said, this one sports three bullets in the am over this track. He may be ready to outrun the stats. 10 - Ferentz - Let his ability show with a 36 and 1 blowout four days ago. 2 - Wekiva Wachee - Mora 3 of 5 with firsters. Dam's only other to reach the races won at first asking. Wekiva Springs awful with firsters, but this is another one that has shown ability in the am. 11 - Classic Empire - Can't ignore the big fig in his last at FG. Rosemary sees fit. 3 - Silver Success - We are leaving him off the small ticket despite Centeno riding. Looks to me like the Four Roses colt is here to get an education. He's bred to go longer and if he had any ability, he'd be running at GP with the rest of the Four Roses horses. Race 9: 4 - Silver Peagus - A standout here even after leaving the Ness barn. The Griff will try to keep the ball rolling and get his fourth win in a row. 7 - Blind River Fox - Not sure 7f is his best distance although he has shown a stalk and pounce dimension on the grass. Race 10: 4 - Show Boatin' - Two clunkers in a row for Ness. Positive sign in the slight bump up in class. Wire to wire threat. 9 - Buddha Pass - Will try to sit off Show Boatin' and run him down in the stretch. Back to his favorite jock. 2 - Dennis's Dream - Too sharp to leave off. Race 11: 4 - A Curious Lady - A sharp return to the races in her last. Can handle the class hike. Nice work a week ago. 9 - Straight Crew - Excellent debut. Gets Lasix and a hustling Mata. A slight improvement puts this one in the mix. 2 - Smile Train - Ness/Centeno, 3rd off, slight drop (not really, at Tampa). Will be tough to handle. Small Ticket: 2,7,9,10,11/4/2,4,9/2,4,9 = $45 Big Ticket: 2,3,7,9,10,11/4,7/2,4,8,9/2,4,9 = $144 GL to all today esp. Richwood Silver and Team Simon at OP. 
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#2
04-12-2008, 09:56 AM
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Going to be rethinking this ticket:
Race 8 11 Classic Empire 9 Tax and Spend 3 Silver Success 5 Metro System Race 9 1 Supply Guy 7 Blind River Fox 3 Anglers Reef 4 Silver Peagus Race 10 9 Buddha Pass 3 Chispazo 10 Watchtower 2 Dennis's Dream Race 11 2 Smile Train 5 Sweet Timber 10 Mis Max Big = 3,5,9,11//1,3,4,7//2,3,9,10//2,5,10 - 192.00 Small = 3,5,9,11//1,7//3,9,10//2,5,10 - 72.00 I'm ready to toss the Empire Maker out of the first leg and add a couple of the firsters...Rosie is great, but this horse is screaming for a route of ground...The 2, Wekiva Wachee turned a 1:02.1 from the gate last week; never been a huge Amiss fan, but this horse can get around here in impressive style
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#3
04-12-2008, 10:11 AM
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Quote:
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#4
04-12-2008, 12:39 PM
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Way too much Ness in this P4. Horses leaving his barn and new runners arriving. Makes handicapping tough.
Race 8: A)3,5,6,9 B)2,7 Race 9: A)4 B)1,3,7 Race 10: A)4,9 B)2,10 Race 11: A)2,4 B)9 AAAA $3 3,5,6,9\4\4,9\2,4 = $48 AAAB $1 3,5,6,9\4\4,9\9 = $8 AABA $1 3,5,6,9\4\2,10\2,4 = $16 ABAA $1 3,5,6,9\1,3,7\4,9\2,4 = $48 BAAA $1 2,7\4\4,9\2,4 = $8 AABB $1 3,5,6,9\4\2,10\9 = $8 ABAB $1 3,5,6,9\1,3,7\4,9\9 = $24 ABBA $1 3,5,6,9\1,3,7\2,10\2,4= $48 BBAA $1 2,7\1,3,7\4,9\2,4 = $24 BABA $1 2,7\4\2,10\2,4 = $8 BAAB $1 2,7\4\4,9\9 =$4 Total: $244
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