Ilman's FormBlog: W/E Beyers

Kasept · #1 12-11-2007, 05:07 PM

Here are the winning Beyer Speed Figures for last week's stakes races:

*Hollywood Turf Cup (Hol): Sunriver (T. Pletcher/G. Gomez) - 108
*Sam's Town (DeD): Jonesboro (R. Morse/C. Borel) - 102

*Native Diver (Hol): Heatseeker - Ire (J. Hollendorfer/M. Baze) - 99
*Louisiana Champions Day Classic (FG): Costa Rising (G. Delahoussaye/R. Albarado) - 98
*Queens County (Aqu): Evening Attire (P. Kelly/E. Prado) - 97
*Zia Park Distance Championship (Zia): Tap Dancing Mauk (D. Romans/C. Lambert) - 97
*Delta Jackpot (DeD): (DH) Turf War (M. Casse/C. Borel), Z Humor (W. Mott/G. Gomez) - 96
*Buffalo Bayou (Hou): Gold Sound - Fr (M. Stidham/P. Nolan) - 93
*Hank Mills Sr. (TuP): Highland Games (L. Rollins/G. Corbett) - 93
*Sonic Gray (Crc): Amazing Speed (J. Garoffalo/C. Olivero) - 92
*Sir Barton (WO): Executive Choice (R. Baker/J. McAleney) - 92
*Louisiana Champions Day Ladies (FG): Ahead of Her Time (S. Asmussen/S. Bridgmohan) - 91
*Treasure Chest (DeD): Coolwind (G. Geier/R. Albarado) - 91
*Valedictory (WO): Torquay (N. DeToro/E. Da Silva) - 91
*Raise Heck (Aqu): Frisk Her (G. Contessa/J. Bravo) - 90
*Hermosa Beach (Hol): Sohgol - Ire (N. Drysdale/J. Talamo) - 90
*Louisiana Champions Day Turf (FG): Willist (K. Broussard/R. Albarado) - 90

*Louisiana Champions Day Sprint (FG): Fass Feat (E. Schwandt/K. Clark) - 89
*Geisha (Lrl): Lexi Star (C. Grove/J. Acosta) - 89
*Sunny Issues (Crc): Pretoria Light (D. Brownlee/R. Alvarado Jr.) - 89
*Louisiana Champions Day Ladies Sprint (FG): Carl's Frosty Girl (P. Mouton/J. Jacinto) - 88
*Playa del Rey (Hol): Lady Gamer (J. Sadler/G. Gomez) - 87
*Lightning City (Tam): Royal Regan (C. Rountree/P. Cotto Jr.) - 87
*Mel's Hope (Crc): Mysterious Peintre - Fr (M. Wolfson/E. Trujillo) - 86
*Coyote Lakes (Aqu): Nite Light (T. Pletcher/M. Luzzi) - 86
*My Charmer (TP): Half Heaven (D. Romans/D. Sarvis) - 85
*Zia Park Derby (Zia): Reporting for Duty (S. Asmussen/L. Quinonez) - 85
*Damon Runyon (Aqu): Giant Moon (R. Schosberg/R. Dominguez) - 82
*Delta Princess (DeD): By the Light (R. Dutrow Jr./R. Bejarano) - 81
*Louisiana Champions Day Juvenile (FG): Star Guitar (A. Stall Jr./C. Bourque) - 80
*Treasure Town (TuP): Wine Tasting Room (M. Kumke/J. Kenny) - 80

*Champagne Isle (TuP): Damara (K. Bennett/W. Dieguez) - 79
*Louisiana Champions Day Starter (FG): Z Storm (W. Hawley/J. Graham) - 79
*Lethal Grande Oregon Sprint (PM): Hunt for Glory (J. Nance/C. Jones) - 78
*Fool the Experts (TuP): Remember Boffi (A. Kitchingman/W. Dieguez) - 76
*La Paz (TuP): Harlan's Song (K. Bennett/G. Corbett) - 75
*Xtra Heat (Aqu): Throbbin' Heart (S. Asmussen/S. Elliott) - 75
*Corte Madera (GG): La Mina (M. Mitchell/C. Gonzalez) - 74
*Louisiana Champions Day Lassie (FG): Superior Storm (R. Jackson/J. Jacinto) - 74

*Pat Whitworth Illinois Debutante (Haw): Link to My Heart (C. Block/E. Razo Jr.) - 69
*Ontario Lassie (WO): Krz Exec (M. DePaulo/J. Baird) - 66
*Oregon Hers (PM): Little Cascadian (N. Lowe/D. Lopez) - 64
*Oregon His (PM): Baquero Ruler (J. Nance/K. Radke) - 63
*Os West Oregon Futurity (PM): Jimbos Fire Ant (M. Root/K. Radke) - 62

*Jane Driggers Debutante (PM): Ochoco Flame (M. Root/J. Crispin) - 59

GPK · #2 12-11-2007, 05:15 PM

help an ignorant person here...how the heck do Z Humor and Turf War get the same BSF? 2 completely different trips...one tracks a hot pace and the other was widest of all at the top of the stretch. Just doesn't seem right.

Kasept · #3 12-11-2007, 05:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GPK

help an ignorant person here...how the heck do Z Humor and Turf War get the same BSF? 2 completely different trips...one tracks a hot pace and the other was widest of all at the top of the stretch. Just doesn't seem right.

BSF's do not account for lost ground/saved ground... Raw speed interpolation...

GPK · #4 12-11-2007, 05:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kasept

BSF's do not account for lost ground/saved ground... Raw speed interpolation...

I realized that, just still doesnt seem right though Steve.

but then again...he is Andy Beyer and I am GPK

Kasept · #5 12-11-2007, 05:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GPK

I realized that, just still doesnt seem right though Steve... but then again...he is Andy Beyer and I am GPK

More interestingly, Mark Casse told me yesterday that in his opinion, the BSF's from this fall at Woodbine are consistantly LOWER than they should have been... He doesn't believe that fig-wise Turf War jumped from a career high 80 to the 96....

GPK · #6 12-11-2007, 05:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kasept

More interestingly, Mark Casse told me yesterday that in his opinion, the BSF's from this fall at Woodbine are consistantly LOWER than they should have been... He doesn't believe that fig-wise Turf War jumped from a career high 80 to the 96....

I dont have Turf War's PP's in front of me, but 16 would be a huge jump, no doubt, so it seems there would be some validity to his statements. I realized they dead heated, hence they arrived at the same final raw speed figure, but it still doesnt seem right taking both trips into account. I have ZERO clue how to read the TG Sheets, so would be interested to know what they came back.

blackthroatedwind · #7 12-11-2007, 05:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kasept

More interestingly, Mark Casse told me yesterday that in his opinion, the BSF's from this fall at Woodbine are consistantly LOWER than they should have been... He doesn't believe that fig-wise Turf War jumped from a career high 80 to the 96....

Really? How much time has Mark Casse spent on Formulator comparing the Woodbine Polytrack figs to the figs these horses, or their competition, run on actual dirt tracks?

I've done a reasonable amount and I find a decent correlation. And, the Woodbine horses that have come to NY, while there haven't been many, haven't improved from what I've seen ( one private purchase for Hushion tanked last week ).

Here's what I think, and it's twofold, the first is after the horse ran so well Friday, Casse is under some pressure to answer why he wasn't running in bigger dirt races where he may well be a faster horse. But the other is the trip.....Turf War benefited from a huge pace and fell into a very advantageous trip while Z Humor worked hard ( needlessly hard in fact ) the entire race to earn his number. It's unlikely Turf War will get the kind of setup he got on Friday in too many dirt races and I won't be at all surprised when his numbers regress back to the Woodbine efforts.....though he obviously can and should improve a bit with maturity.

blackthroatedwind · #8 12-11-2007, 05:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GPK

I dont have Turf War's PP's in front of me, but 16 would be a huge jump, no doubt, so it seems there would be some validity to his statements. I realized they dead heated, hence they arrived at the same final raw speed figure, but it still doesnt seem right taking both trips into account. I have ZERO clue how to read the TG Sheets, so would be interested to know what they came back.

I would be much more interested in a pace-based figure....and Z Humor had to have drowned Turf War in that case.

Perhaps CJ can help us with that.

blackthroatedwind · #9 12-11-2007, 05:50 PM

When I went to Woodbine in October for a couple of days I did a ton of work on the cards ( and, shockingly, somehow even managed to win ) and to be honest while obviously I found some figs that seemed a bit on the low side I found more that were on the high side. That probably had more to do with race dynamics than anything else.

I think a reasonable perusal of any Woodbine card will show very fair similarities between the figures horses earned this fall versus numbers earned in prior meets.

GPK · #10 12-11-2007, 06:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I would be much more interested in a pace-based figure....and Z Humor had to have drowned Turf War in that case.

Perhaps CJ can help us with that.

not sure who CJ is...but when looking at the fractions and watching the replay, I thought Z Humor ran a much better race.

blackthroatedwind · #11 12-11-2007, 06:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GPK

not sure who CJ is...but when looking at the fractions and watching the replay, I thought Z Humor ran a much better race.

CMOrioles. He makes pace based speed figures and other than being an Orioles fan he's very sharp.

I agree with you.

GPK · #12 12-11-2007, 06:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

CMOrioles. He makes pace based speed figures and other than being an Orioles fan he's very sharp.

I agree with you.

poor guy...we cant all be perfect...

blackthroatedwind · #13 12-11-2007, 06:12 PM

It's a flaw that sadly I share.

GPK · #14 12-11-2007, 06:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

It's a flaw that sadly I share.

and all this time I held you in such high regard...

blackthroatedwind · #15 12-11-2007, 06:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GPK

and all this time I held you in such high regard...

I guess that proves you aren't perfect either.

GPK · #16 12-11-2007, 06:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I guess that proves you aren't perfect either.

Good point...but then again, I will always have BBB as handicapping idol.

the_fat_man · #17 12-11-2007, 07:21 PM

I just checked out the replay of the Jackpot.

I can only wonder how Gomez finds the NUTS to face Mott and the owner (or their representatives) after the race. That had to be, hands down, one of the worst rides of the year. Incredible. For a (portion of a ) cool million, too.

blackthroatedwind · #18 12-11-2007, 07:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

I just checked out the replay of the Jackpot.

I can only wonder how Gomez finds the NUTS to face Mott and the owner (or their representatives) after the race. That had to be, hands down, one of the worst rides of the year. Incredible. For a (portion of a ) cool million, too.

I've already said that on the board. Plus, it was an uncharacteristicly bad ride. When have you ever seen him in any kind of hurry, much less the ridiculous one he was in Friday?

cmorioles · #19 12-12-2007, 03:25 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

CMOrioles. He makes pace based speed figures and other than being an Orioles fan he's very sharp.

I agree with you.

Can't help where I was born, and I'm stubborn.

For the DeD race, I came up with 113 pace figure for the race and a 95 speed figure. This would give Z Humor about the same pace number, 113, while Turf War would get a 94.

This kind of race is precisely the reason I would never use speed figures alone. Of course, all you have to do is look at the horses in this race. Other than Z Humor, the horses filling out the superfecta where 7th, 9th, and 10th early in a 10 horse field. The horse that was 8th early was a hopeless 99 to 1 shot.