Belmont Sunday

[justindew]

Just two thoughts at this point:

Lawyer Ron has run poorly twice at 10 furlongs, and Curlin just might not be cranked up for his best. I'm going to play Sun King.

I'm a Mach Ride fan, so I'll play him too in the hopes that blinkers are the reason for the improved efforts.

[Scav]

Lawyer Ron ran poorly at 10 furlongs NOT IN Pletchers care. I don't really consider that BC run last year to be in his care, he finally had time to work with him. He could be a Saratoga monster but I doubt it.

[justindew]

Hey, I like Lawyer Ron. Always have. But I'm trying to find value here. If you hold a gun to my head and say "pick the winner", I'd take Lawyer Ron. But not at short odds at this distance.

[justindew]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

I agree, no value at all. I'm all for a value play, I just question Sun king at 10 furlongs.

You aren't alone. That's why he might be 10-1.

[justindew]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

He should be a lot bigger than that.

I doubt it. Wasn't he 13-1 when 2nd to LR at Saratoga?

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by justindew

Hey, I like Lawyer Ron. Always have. But I'm trying to find value here. If you hold a gun to my head and say "pick the winner", I'd take Lawyer Ron. But not at short odds at this distance.

This is exactly how I feel. He remains the most likely winner, but I think he will always be a better horse at 8.5f - 9f than he will ever be at 10f.
He doesn't have anything close to a 10f pedigree, and - as you mentioned earlier - his two past performances at 10f have been MUCH worse than his shorter races.
I think he is vulnerable, but I am not sure any of these are going to be able to take advantage of that. Sun King is (as always) an unlikely winner, but if he is in the 12/1 range, you could certainly do a lot worse.