Scat Daddy's FL Derby Beyer

[JJP]

I didn't get around to going thru charts until today. And I'm convinced "they" blew this number. There was four 1 1/8 mile races at GP on March 31, so we should be able to make reliable figs. The Beyer folks gave Scat Daddy a 98, which I'm now convinced is 7 points too low ( I make my own figs, using a very similar scale to Beyers). 7 points in "Beyerizing" is hardly splitting hairs.

Of the four 9 furlong races, the most reliable race to use as a barometer would be the Skip Away, won by AP Arrow, a horse who regularly has been running in the 100-106 neighborhood. Yet they assigned him a 92 for his winning effort. I'm pretty sure this number is too low and will be adjusted later on. I think they didn't like the fact Rehoboth ran 2nd, although on his best day, he can toss a 100. Looking at the other also rans, Political Force was coming off a 101 in a win over NW2X runners over the track and even turf specialist Touched by Madness was coming off a 97 on the dirt at GP. The evidence the 92 for the winner is just flat out wrong. I assigned a 99 for AP Arrow. The final time was 1:49.70

In another 9f race, the 6th, I believe the 87 is definitely too low for the Pletcher trained Soaring By. Soaring By chased a fast pace and tired badly in the LA Derby, but had run a big fig (96) going 7f at GP on Feb 3. The 2nd and 3rd place runners were lightly raced runners coming off Mdn wins. The crowd bet the race like it was a match race between Soaring By and Fearless Vision, who ended up running 1-2. But Rogers ran a giant race for 3rd, and was 5 1/2 lengths clear of 3rd. My guess is the Beyer folks didn't want to give him improvement off his 82 Beyer when he beat Mdn claimers. 3 runners separate themselves from the pack w/a Pletcher runner who's already run a 96 over the track at 7f; is a 94 too much of a stretch? Me thinks not. Soaring By got the 9 furlongs in 1:50 1/5 (rounded up by 1/100th)

The 4th was a maiden race in which the first place runner, Mountain Wolf, was DQd to 3rd. Its tough to project figures for maiden races, especially spring 3YOs because they can jump up in a hurry. At first I thought a 91 for the winner might be high but I believe the softish pace contributed to the big final time. The horses who were 1-2-3 after a quarter mile were still the top 3 at the end (although they switched places). The 6f fraction was just under 1: 13 3/5, so its not surprising they had plenty left. The 9 length gap from 5th to 6th was more evidence that the top 5 ran big here. Final time was 1:50.47

Now the FL Derby. Scat Daddy was coming off a win in the FOuntain of Youth with 4 horses bunched at the wire. The old cliche is that bunched fields= slowish races. Mistake here. After the top 4, there was clear separation from everyone else. My point? The 95 they assigned Scat Daddy could have been too low. After all, Nobiz Likeshobiz came out of that race to dust the higher figged Any Given Saturday last weekend in the Wood. I think they used the 95 as a starting point to project for the Florida Derby. Based on the other numbers, I gave Scat Daddy a 105 for the FL Derby. But would that make the others too high? I don't think so. Notional would be a 103, which would be an improvement over his last but he was coming off an open length win, and one wonders if he could've won that by even more. Chelokee also would be making a decent move up, but he also was coming off a win, and a trouble plagued win at that. Stormello, who ran a tremendous race in the Fountain of Youth, factoring the pace into the picture, was 4th. Final time was 1:49 even

At a 98, Scat Daddy would be just another contender who you wouldn't want to take at anything less than 10-1. At a 105, he becomes a very strong contender. Street Sense and Great Hunter still have to run once more but right now, the "Daddy" has to be right there with them as the top 3 betting choices.

[hoovesupsideyourhead]

i agree with the beyer ,the race as awhole was not the best..the only bright spot was chelokke scat gets smoked in the derby imo he made hard spun look good

[JJP]

What does Hard Spun have to do with Scat Daddy?

[SOREHOOF]

I think you might be on to something there. I'm not really a fan of Beyer speed figs, but you have to check them. I think they are most reliable as a guage to what the odds will be since so many people use them and not much else. I prefer the DRF speed figs but use them very cautiously. It seems that Street Sense and AGS should have got higher Beyer figs considering they broke the track record. I'm curious what the higest Beyer figs for Poly are.

[hoovesupsideyourhead]

any time at gs is suspect including the grass...

[SOREHOOF]

Originally Posted by hoovesupsideyourhead

any time at gs is suspect including the grass...

What?

[TitanSooner]

any time at gulfstream is suspect

[hoovesupsideyourhead]

Originally Posted by TitanSooner

any time at gulfstream is suspect

thank you sooner ..i thought i was talking too the wall

[SOREHOOF]

Not being a wise ass, just didn't understand. Must have misread.
Does the Tampa 102 for SS and AGS seem out of whack to anyone but me?

[VOL JACK]

The AP Arrow beyer jumped out at me for being too low. If your right about this U can make alot of $ on the derby because alot of serious players have already thrown out the GP horses.

[SOREHOOF]

Beyers work best for misleading people who don't dig deeper into the pp's.

[philcski]

Great detailed and constructive argument, and the same mistake they made last year on the Fl Derby (should have been 5 points higher.)

I still question the Daddy getting 10F but the horse cannot be discounted.

[SOREHOOF]

They will all get the 10 f !!!

[VOL JACK]

Originally Posted by SOREHOOF

Beyers work best for misleading people who don't dig deeper into the pp's.

My best plays Come when I find iffy BSF. I love using them but I don't rely on them. BTW, Joe Cordero's book on using BSF's is a must read!

[philcski]

Originally Posted by SOREHOOF

They will all get the 10 f !!!

Just a matter of 2:01 or 2:10

[pick4]

Originally Posted by JJP

I didn't get around to going thru charts until today. And I'm convinced "they" blew this number. There was four 1 1/8 mile races at GP on March 31, so we should be able to make reliable figs. The Beyer folks gave Scat Daddy a 98, which I'm now convinced is 7 points too low ( I make my own figs, using a very similar scale to Beyers). 7 points in "Beyerizing" is hardly splitting hairs.

Of the four 9 furlong races, the most reliable race to use as a barometer would be the Skip Away, won by AP Arrow, a horse who regularly has been running in the 100-106 neighborhood. Yet they assigned him a 92 for his winning effort. I'm pretty sure this number is too low and will be adjusted later on. I think they didn't like the fact Rehoboth ran 2nd, although on his best day, he can toss a 100. Looking at the other also rans, Political Force was coming off a 101 in a win over NW2X runners over the track and even turf specialist Touched by Madness was coming off a 97 on the dirt at GP. The evidence the 92 for the winner is just flat out wrong. I assigned a 99 for AP Arrow. The final time was 1:49.70

In another 9f race, the 6th, I believe the 87 is definitely too low for the Pletcher trained Soaring By. Soaring By chased a fast pace and tired badly in the LA Derby, but had run a big fig (96) going 7f at GP on Feb 3. The 2nd and 3rd place runners were lightly raced runners coming off Mdn wins. The crowd bet the race like it was a match race between Soaring By and Fearless Vision, who ended up running 1-2. But Rogers ran a giant race for 3rd, and was 5 1/2 lengths clear of 3rd. My guess is the Beyer folks didn't want to give him improvement off his 82 Beyer when he beat Mdn claimers. 3 runners separate themselves from the pack w/a Pletcher runner who's already run a 96 over the track at 7f; is a 94 too much of a stretch? Me thinks not. Soaring By got the 9 furlongs in 1:50 1/5 (rounded up by 1/100th)

The 4th was a maiden race in which the first place runner, Mountain Wolf, was DQd to 3rd. Its tough to project figures for maiden races, especially spring 3YOs because they can jump up in a hurry. At first I thought a 91 for the winner might be high but I believe the softish pace contributed to the big final time. The horses who were 1-2-3 after a quarter mile were still the top 3 at the end (although they switched places). The 6f fraction was just under 1: 13 3/5, so its not surprising they had plenty left. The 9 length gap from 5th to 6th was more evidence that the top 5 ran big here. Final time was 1:50.47

Now the FL Derby. Scat Daddy was coming off a win in the FOuntain of Youth with 4 horses bunched at the wire. The old cliche is that bunched fields= slowish races. Mistake here. After the top 4, there was clear separation from everyone else. My point? The 95 they assigned Scat Daddy could have been too low. After all, Nobiz Likeshobiz came out of that race to dust the higher figged Any Given Saturday last weekend in the Wood. I think they used the 95 as a starting point to project for the Florida Derby. Based on the other numbers, I gave Scat Daddy a 105 for the FL Derby. But would that make the others too high? I don't think so. Notional would be a 103, which would be an improvement over his last but he was coming off an open length win, and one wonders if he could've won that by even more. Chelokee also would be making a decent move up, but he also was coming off a win, and a trouble plagued win at that. Stormello, who ran a tremendous race in the Fountain of Youth, factoring the pace into the picture, was 4th. Final time was 1:49 even

At a 98, Scat Daddy would be just another contender who you wouldn't want to take at anything less than 10-1. At a 105, he becomes a very strong contender. Street Sense and Great Hunter still have to run once more but right now, the "Daddy" has to be right there with them as the top 3 betting choices.

Your analysis of the BSF's for Florida Derby day are the best I've even seen anyone critically analize the numbers. I'll have to break out the charts and do the same because you might be on to something. Most times the Beyers are on target but sometimes they are wrong. There's $ to be made when you can pinpoint incorrect calcultions of BSF's.

[SOREHOOF]

Originally Posted by philcski

Just a matter of 2:01 or 2:10

Or more.

[JJP]

Originally Posted by pick4

Your analysis of the BSF's for Florida Derby day are the best I've even seen anyone critically analize the numbers. I'll have to break out the charts and do the same because you might be on to something. Most times the Beyers are on target but sometimes they are wrong. There's $ to be made when you can pinpoint incorrect calcultions of BSF's.

I agree that generally speaking, the Beyers are pretty solid. And I think they're definitely better than 10 years ago. Unlike some, I think its a good thing to change numbers after the fact. At least they will admit they made a mistake initially.

I also agree w/Vol Jack: the AP Arrow figure really is the key here. I think the Beyer people put too much into projections for the Mdn race and NW1X, when in fact horses at those levels can improve dramatically.

I think Chelokee becomes a very live longshot for tris, exactas and supers (as does Notional, although the price won't be as high).

[Bogey]

Originally Posted by VOL JACK

The AP Arrow beyer jumped out at me for being too low. If your right about this U can make alot of $ on the derby because alot of serious players have already thrown out the GP horses.

I hope you're kidding. The wise guys told you so?

[VOL JACK]

Originally Posted by Bogey

I hope you're kidding. The wise guys told you so?

So who is going to get played coming from GP? Scat will be 12-1.