Tampa Pick 4/Saturday

[GPK]

Hope you don't mind Bigs


Race 6 OC32k/N2X 1 1/16 TURF

#2 COME CLOSE (4-1ML) - J. Shep solid 2nd back. Has back numbers and will be heard from late.

#8 SNAPPHOK (12-1ML) - Montavo stays and I love him on closers. 33% J/T combo. Gulick 26% 2nd off and having a solid meet from limited runners. UPSET SPECIAL and a must bet at 8-1 or better.

#9 GO DIRECTLY TO JAIL (9-5ML) -Not a fan of geldings record at the disatance, but too tough to ignore at a short price.


RACE 7 CLM12500 6.5 FURLONGS

#5 STEVEBISCUIT (7-2ML) - Back to Tampa sand where he owns 2 wins. Drops in half from last 3 as well. Alfredo knows success with him.

#2 FORT KNOW (8-1ML) - 3 for 3 ITM over track. Not much other speed signed on. JJ may try and run away from them early.

#3 RAMPANT (5-2ML) - Cuts back and top jock should insure good trip.


RACE 8 BUD CHALLENGER 1 1/16

#7 GOTCHA GOLD (6-1ML) - Needed last and like the 1 mile jog last week. Looking for a big effort at a nice price.

#8 ISTAN (7-2ML) - Month off for Mott runner after finishing behind the Lawyer last out.

#5 CHEROKEE PRINCE (8-1ML) - Just the kind of small stakes race that team Allen loves to upset. Turf to dirt and never off the board in 5 tries at the distance...including 2 wins.


RACE 9 OC40K/N3X ABOUT 1 MILE TURF

1 & 1A ENTRY (9-2ML) - Martinez named to both, so assuming one of them will scratch. Either of them appear capable.

#8 TRAVOIS (2-1) - Proctor with mind boggling numbers all around. Lez stays put.

#5 SAINT KNOWS (9-5ML) - Some back races that tower over these. Centeno has won on her previously.



Smaller play

2,8/
2,3,5/
5,7/
1,5,8

[SCUDSBROTHER]

Travois ..lol....That'samygirl..........Nobody gunna tower over her.

[GPK]

Originally Posted by SCUDSBROTHER

Travois ..lol....That'samygirl..........Nobody gunna tower over her.

Proctor is unreal Scuds.

42% winners at the meet (40 starters)
30% 2nd off 45-180 (43 starters)
27% won last start (55 starters)
27% turf (154 starters)
26% routes (198 starters)
35% allowance (79 starters)
Proctor/Lezcano 58% from 19 starters with an ROI of $4.21

mindboggling...

[GPK]

Originally Posted by GPK

Proctor is unreal Scuds.

42% winners at the meet (40 starters)
30% 2nd off 45-180 (43 starters)
27% won last start (55 starters)
27% turf (154 starters)
26% routes (198 starters)
35% allowance (79 starters)
Proctor/Lezcano 58% from 19 starters with an ROI of $4.21

mindboggling...

Scuds....all those stats make it even more unreal when you caught her last week as your single at 7-1. I think your handicapping ability goes largely unnoticed here.

[SCUDSBROTHER]

Originally Posted by GPK

Scuds....all those stats make it even more unreal when you caught her last week as your single at 7-1. I think your handicapping ability goes largely unnoticed here.

The only thing I did differently that day is not get a form.Went deep in 1st leg(8th,)and got the price.Then Proctor had horses in the next 2 races.I already had a poor paying p4 ending with the Proctor in the short field 9th.So,I took the 5 horses I didn't have in the 9th to the Proctor in the last.I had no idea what Travois' past performances were.For $25 she keyed about a $750/1 p3.Good thing I don't bet much,because I haven't done all that much since she won.I will though.If I struggle,then I start betting less.I think most people bet more(don't know why.)

[GPK]

Originally Posted by SCUDSBROTHER

The only thing I did differently that day is not get a form.Went deep in 1st leg(8th,)and got the price.Then Proctor had horses in the next 2 races.I already had a poor paying p4 ending with the Proctor in the short field 9th.So,I took the 5 horses I didn't have in the 9th to the Proctor in the last.I had no idea what Travois' past performances were.For $25 she keyed about a $750/1 p3.Good thing I don't bet much,because I haven't done all that much since she won.I will though.If I struggle,then I start betting less.I think most people bet more(don't know why.)

because the great majority of gamblers "chase" their losses.

[SCUDSBROTHER]

Originally Posted by GPK

because the great majority of gamblers "chase" their losses.

I did that for about 10-15 years...LOL....It is much harder to avoid chasing at the track,or VEGAS,OTB etc. It is much easier to avoid chasing from home. When you are at these places,a lot of people are losing.That is a classic situation of misery loves company.I changed to mainly multi-race betting. It is a less intense way to bet.If you have a bad day at win betting,you are pretty much roadkill.

[GPK]

Originally Posted by SCUDSBROTHER

I did that for about 10-15 years...LOL....It is much harder to avoid chasing at the track,or VEGAS,OTB etc. It is much easier to avoid chasing from home. When you are at these places,a lot of people are losing.That is a classic situation of misery loves company.

LOL....no easier place to chase than Vegas. Even when you are winning, you still think about making more.

I have been to Vegas about 6-7 times and even when I am winning...and quit for a few hours...the thought of going back to win more is always in the back of my mind. Where as, if I am at the OTB and I am winning...it is TONS easier to walk out.

[golfer]

I didn't handicap the race, but if I remember correctly, the 5 horse in the 11th race, Can't Spell, was a victim of strangulation in his last race (J Ferrer). Maybe someone can take a look at it. If this is the horse I think it is, he was hard held not only throughout the first 3 quarters on the rail, but through the stretch as well (something you don't see very often). We're not talking longshot here, but might be a nice play today.

[GPK]

Originally Posted by golfer

I didn't handicap the race, but if I remember correctly, the 5 horse in the 11th race, Can't Spell, was a victim of strangulation in his last race (J Ferrer). Maybe someone can take a look at it. If this is the horse I think it is, he was hard held not only throughout the first 3 quarters on the rail, but through the stretch as well (something you don't see very often). We're not talking longshot here, but might be a nice play today.

golfer....I don't need to look. If you say Strangle and Ferrer in the same sentence, I will believe you. I dont call him "the choke" for nothing. If there is a jock switch, the "ferrer off" angle is ALWAYS live.

[GPK]

I can't believe I am doing this, but I may have to defend Ferrer here.

Golfer, I went back and watched the race anyways. It looks like JF had a good hold on him for a bit, but just short of 6 furlongs into the race, it looks like he tries to take Can't Spell along the rail and either the hole closed up or be clipped heels one. After that, the horse essentially quit running.

Another bet back would be CHET from that race...looked to be full of run after sitting just off the pace, but was cut off from the winner.

[Bigsmc]

Originally Posted by GPK

Hope you don't mind Bigs


Race 6 OC32k/N2X 1 1/16 TURF

#2 COME CLOSE (4-1ML) - J. Shep solid 2nd back. Has back numbers and will be heard from late.

#8 SNAPPHOK (12-1ML) - Montavo stays and I love him on closers. 33% J/T combo. Gulick 26% 2nd off and having a solid meet from limited runners. UPSET SPECIAL and a must bet at 8-1 or better.

#9 GO DIRECTLY TO JAIL (9-5ML) -Not a fan of geldings record at the disatance, but too tough to ignore at a short price.


RACE 7 CLM12500 6.5 FURLONGS

#5 STEVEBISCUIT (7-2ML) - Back to Tampa sand where he owns 2 wins. Drops in half from last 3 as well. Alfredo knows success with him.

#2 FORT KNOW (8-1ML) - 3 for 3 ITM over track. Not much other speed signed on. JJ may try and run away from them early.

#3 RAMPANT (5-2ML) - Cuts back and top jock should insure good trip.


RACE 8 BUD CHALLENGER 1 1/16

#7 GOTCHA GOLD (6-1ML) - Needed last and like the 1 mile jog last week. Looking for a big effort at a nice price.

#8 ISTAN (7-2ML) - Month off for Mott runner after finishing behind the Lawyer last out.

#5 CHEROKEE PRINCE (8-1ML) - Just the kind of small stakes race that team Allen loves to upset. Turf to dirt and never off the board in 5 tries at the distance...including 2 wins.


RACE 9 OC40K/N3X ABOUT 1 MILE TURF

1 & 1A ENTRY (9-2ML) - Martinez named to both, so assuming one of them will scratch. Either of them appear capable.

#8 TRAVOIS (2-1) - Proctor with mind boggling numbers all around. Lez stays put.

#5 SAINT KNOWS (9-5ML) - Some back races that tower over these. Centeno has won on her previously.



Smaller play

2,8/
2,3,5/
5,7/
1,5,8

Me mind? Come on Bro. Actually, Saturdays are tough for me. After being gone all week, the honeydo's build up.

That said, the lawn is mowed and I'm ready to go.

In the Bud Challenger, I think Cherokee Prince and Gottcha Gold will cancel each other out on the front end setting it up for Hemingway's Key, Bushmills Best and Istan.

My ticket:

6 - 1,2,8,9
7 - 2,3,6 with the scratch of the 2, I added the 7 to my ticket on track.
8 - 1,2,8
9 - 5,8

GL

[-BT-]

R2) PK3

57
379 10 11
27 = $2 ticket = $40


gl all


-bt-

[-BT-]

R6) PK4

19 10
3567
13 (2nd by a nose a 20-1) 8 (be aware: the "strangler" is on the #8)
5 (didn't even show up at 6-5) 8 (3rd) = $72


gl all


-bt-

[GPK]

sure am glad that T3B guy is gone...LOL.


1 outta 4....Im so ashamed...

[GPK]

Originally Posted by golfer

I didn't handicap the race, but if I remember correctly, the 5 horse in the 11th race, Can't Spell, was a victim of strangulation in his last race (J Ferrer). Maybe someone can take a look at it. If this is the horse I think it is, he was hard held not only throughout the first 3 quarters on the rail, but through the stretch as well (something you don't see very often). We're not talking longshot here, but might be a nice play today.

Good call on that. Didn't win, but got a better trip than last. Still had to wait a second or two behind the dying 6 horse, before finding room on the rail. Pedro gives the winner a completely different ride than he has been giving him. Rated nicely and gave one strong middle move.

[golfer]

Originally Posted by GPK

Good call on that. Didn't win, but got a better trip than last. Still had to wait a second or two behind the dying 6 horse, before finding room on the rail. Pedro gives the winner a completely different ride than he has been giving him. Rated nicely and gave one strong middle move.

Thanks Kev, good call maybe, but that second or two cost him the win and me a nice win bet and the late double 2nd at 7-1. Sometimes you win on the line, sometimes you don't; today I got beat that way (too)many times!!

[GPK]

Originally Posted by golfer

Thanks Kev, good call maybe, but that second or two cost him the win and me a nice win bet and the late double 2nd at 7-1. Sometimes you win on the line, sometimes you don't; today I got beat that way (too)many times!!

I think it did cost him the win...he clearly pulled up a touch to wait for the rail to open. If he was able to move through without the hesitation, he most likely wins.

Tis the maddening part about racing....1 or 2 seconds are very precious..

[-BT-]

can't think of feeling any more unfullfiled when you hit 3 of 4 and have 1st and 2nd choice going into the final leg.

i would rather lose by a nose with a 20-1 shot in the 1st leg and then go about by business, but no, they string you along until the last leg

f#ck it, im going 4+ in the final leg from now on, even if i have to single the first 3 legs

-bt-

[Bigsmc]

Originally Posted by -BT-

R6) PK4

19 10
3567
13 (2nd by a nose a 20-1) 8 (be aware: the "strangler" is on the #8)
5 (didn't even show up at 6-5) 8 (3rd) = $72


gl all


-bt-

Needed the same two horses in the 9th as you. Very very disappointing day as I used $50 horse in the 3rd top and bottom in exactas with the three chalk. None of the chalk runs, as I watch the $50 horse cross the wire, I realize I had the right horse, but have nothing to show for it.