Hot Rod Charlie

[moses]

I know the various figures are a bit mixed on him. Beyer had his Louisiana Derby as a 99 and Timeform had it at a 117, which rank him pretty high up there in this 3 year old class. But his thorograph numbers are a few points below the top runners. And BRIS and Equibase, which I don't really put much weight into, have him a notch or two below the top horses.

I've watched the Louisiana Derby a bunch of times now and maybe someone can correct me if I'm looking at this wrong - but he was under a hand ride until about 1/8th mile left. Midnight Bourbon looks like he might be able to make a move on him, Rosario breaks out the whip and hits Hot Rod Charlie twice, he responds and goes from roughly 1/2 length ahead to finish 2 lengths ahead of Midnight Bourbon.

The pace and final times look pretty strong as well. And yet, not many people seem to talk about him as if he's a legitimate win contender.

He's versatile as he's run well on the lead and coming from off the pace. He should have the tactical speed to work out a good trip. His loss to Essential Quality at the Breeders Cup could be as simple as him moving too soon. His loss to Medina Spirit in the Robert Lewis was off a 80+ day layoff. He's a 1/2 brother to one of the best recent dirt sprinters (who also won the Met Mile) but out of a winner of the Preakness so he's got a bit more distance in his pedigree. His trainer has won the Kentucky Derby twice.

To be fair, I don't have him as my top choice but I'm wondering if he could be overlooked and end up a pretty good price on Saturday.