7/21: Saratoga ~ Opening Day (Schylerville; Lake George)

[Kasept]

Incredibly beautiful morning here in Upstate New York. Best wishes to all for a safe, profitable Saratoga season..


SARATOGA ~ OPENING DAY


POST-SCRATCHES


1st: CLM, 3+, 9f (P5, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #5 Rich Daddy Late SCR
Next Best: #1 Indycott 8-5 WON ($4.90)
Best Value: #6 River Date 9-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #8 Praetereo 6-1 4th


2nd: NY-MSW, 2yo-F, 5.5f-T (P4, P3, DD)

In moderate looking set of state bred juvy fillies, Carlos Martin's Scat Daddy Scatback stands out on all pedigree fronts including sire prowess and productive dam. And Martin excellent with win early types. NOTE: Add Gargan/Midwest MTO Trouble for Skylar to your watch list off sharp worktab...

Most Likely: #5 Scatback 7-2 4th
Next Best: #6 Beaux Arts 4-1 WON ($7.10)
Best Value: #2 Misty Forest 6-1 6th
Exotics Use: #1 Wanda Fay 5-1 3rd


3rd: S/ALW, 3+, 9f (P3, DD)

Best Value: #2 Carlino 6-1 2nd
Next Best: #6 Point Hope 2-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #1 Offlee Brawn 9-2 5th
Super Add: #3 Planet Trailblazer 5-2 WON ($6.10)


4th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 6f (P3, DD)

Quirky sprint ALW with Chad Brown fave Patternrecognition the glaring horse to beat. Pace could heat up and that could provide opportunity for Baker's So Noted, 2nd off long break and back on strip where he displayed talent in NY-ALW score. Fancy Juddmonte colt Via Egnatia (Distorted Humor out of wonderful Frankel mare Honest Lady) makes first NA start for Mott and this may turn out to be the best time to play him (9/2)..

Best Value: #4 So Noted 12-1 6th
Next Best: #3 Patternrecognition 8-5 2nd
Exotics Use: #5 Via Egnatia 9-2 8th
Super Add: #6 Royal Asset 15-1 4th


5th: MSW, 2yo-F, 5.5f (P6, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #7 Honey Glow 7-2: Pletcher/Calumet FTS has win early look.. 7th
Next Best: #9 Sunny's Funny 9-2: Asmussen/Brewster 2nd timer.. 5th
Best Value: #5 Southampton Way 12-1: DePaz 2nd timer get hood.. WON ($20.80)
Exotics Use: #1 More Mojo 6-1: Cox firster must overcome rail draw.. 3rd
Super Add: #6 Crimson Creed 8-1: Mason tries Spa again after '747' disaster.. 4th


P5 Grid:

1: 1-6 (A), 8 (B), 2-3-4-7 (C)
2: 5-6 (A), - (B), 1-2 (C)
3: 2-6 (A), - (B), 1-3-4 (C)
4: 3-4 (A), 5-6 (B), 7-8 (C)
5: 5-7-9 (A), - (B), 1-6-8 (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x2x2x4x3 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 2x2x2x2x2 = 32 x .50 = $16


P4 Grid:

2: 5-6 (A), - (B), 1-2 (C)
3: 2-6 (A), - (B), 1-3-4 (C)
4: 3-4-5 (A), 6-7-8 (B), - (C)
5: 5-7-9 (A), 1-6-8 (B), 2-10 (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x2x6x6 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 2x2x3x3 = 36 x .50 = $18


6th: NY-ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 5.5f-T (NYRA Bets P5, G/S, P3, DD)

Crazily well matched group. With no shortage of prices available, good spot to stab around..

Most Likely: #11 Same Kinda Crazy 6-1 5th
Next Best: #2 Itsinthestars 9-2 4th
Best Value: #9 Wantagh Queen 12-1 7th
Exotics Use: #6 Swayed 6-1 3rd


7th: O/CLM-C, 3+, 11f-IT (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #2 Messi 4-1 3rd
Best Value: #4 Muqtaser 15-1 WON ($17.40)
Next Best: #10 Highland Sky 3-1 7th
Exotics Use: #7 Gold Shield 10-1 4th


8th: Schuylerville (G3), 2yo-F, 6f (P3, DD)

Nice edition of this traditional first stake of the meet with virtually none an easy toss. As mentioned on ATR, always like one that has made the 6f trip already and Snowfire is that filly here..

Best Value: #8 Snowfire 6-1 4th
Next Best: #3 Best Performance 4-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #9 Stainless 5-1 3rd
Super Add: #1 Mel's Gone Wild 6-1 8th


9th: Lake George (G3), 3yo-F, 8.5f-T (DD)

Outstanding assembly of sophomore turf talent, a division that has seen one emergence after another. Defiant Honor, who flashed talent as a 2yo, gets her chance today and will have to be a solid price considering presence of 7 stakes winners as well as well-credentialed types like Proctor's Ledge and Chubby Star. Should be an absolute war..

Best Value: #3 Defiant Honor 10-1 6th
Next Best: #8 Proctor's Ledge 6-1 WON ($14.20)
Exotics Use: #11 Dream Dancing 9-2 7th
Super Add: #1 Fifty Five 7-2 3rd


10th: MCLM/$40k, F&M-3+, 8.5f-IT

Most Likely: #3 Submit 5-1 5th
Next Best: #8 Sweet Connie Girl 9-2 7th
Best Value: #6 Sunday Gravy 20-1 9th
Exotics Use: #9 Dynamic War 12-1 2nd


P5 Grid:

6: 2-7-11 (A), - (B), 6-9-10-12 (C)
7: 2-4 (A), - (B), 1-7-10 (C)
8: 3-8-9 (A), - (B), 1-2-4 (C)
9: 3-8 (A), 1-11 (B), 2-7-9-10 (C)
10: 3 (A), 8 (B), 2-6-7-9-10 (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x2x3x4x2 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 3x2x3x2x1 = 36 x .50 = $18


P4 Grid:

7: 2-4 (A), 10 (B), 1-7 (C)
8: 3-8-9 (A), - (B), 1-2-4 (C)
9: 1-3-8-11 (A), 2-7-9-10 (B), 4-6 (C)
10: 3 (A), 8 (B), 2-6-7-9-10 (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x3x8x2 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 2x3x4x1 = $24 ($12 for .50)


Good luck!
Steve