8/4: Saratoga ~ Day 12 (G1 A.P. Smithwick; Quick Call)

[Kasept]

SARATOGA


POST-SCRATCHES


1st: 20th A.P. Smithwick (NSA-G1), 4+, 16.5f-National Fences (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #8 Bob Le Beau 5-2 WON ($3.80)
Best Value: #1 Spirit of Shankly 10-1 9th
Next Best: #2 Maserati 9-2 4th
Exotics Use: #3 Schoodic 6-1 6th


2nd: CLM, 3yo, 6f (P5, P3, DD)

Always dangerous Rivelli a rash on this card with desperate Cocked/Loaded here, Tizway baby in 3rd and live Daddy's Boo in 8th..

Most Likely: #6 Cocked and Loaded 9-5 WON ($3.50)
Best Value: #4 Zen Papa 9-2 5th
Next Best: #1 Pinstripe 2-1 6th
Exotics Use: #3 Formal Summation 8-1 2nd


3rd: MSW, 3+, 6f (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #2 Bellelarama 4-1 6th
Best Value: #1e Barker entry POE Late SCR (Entrymate WON for purse money only)
Next Best: #7 Tizway That Way 6-1 7th
Exotics Use: #8 Murrell's Belle 7-2 3rd


4th: MSW, F&M-3+, 6f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #3 MADCAP HEIRESS 3-1 4th
Best Value: #4 Midnight Visitor Late SCR
Next Best: #5 Catsadiva 5-1 WON ($9.00)
Exotics Use: #2 Timido 9-2 5th


5th: S/ALW, F&M-3+, 5.5f-T (P6, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1 Tizanillusion 9-5 3rd-DQ'd from WIN
Next Best: #6 Cosmic Tale 4-1 WON-Up on DQ ($8.40)
Best Value: #4 Sober On Sunday 6-1 5th
Exotics Use: #5 Wildcat Belle 7-2 6th


6th: NY-MSW, 2yo-F, 6f (G/S, P3, DD)

#12 (AE) Swing and Sway (15-1) not into body of race, but add her to your stable mail..

Most Likely: #5 Great Neck 8-1 3rd
Next Best: #4 Miss Horoscope 12-1 10th
Exotics Use: #6 Tiznow's Smile 10-1 4th
Super Add: #1 Passporttovictory 5-1 WON ($12.40)


P5 Grid:

2: 4-6 (A), 1-3 (B), 2-5 (C)
3: 1/SCR-2 (A), 7-8 (B), 3-4-5 (C)
4: 3 (A), - (B), 1-2-4/SCR-5-6-8 (C)
5: 1-6 (A), - (B), 4-5-7-9 (C)
6: 4-5-6 (A), 1-3-7 (B), 2-9-10-11 (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x4x1x2x6 = 192 x .50 = $96
All A's: 2x2x1x2x3 = $24 ($12 for .50)


P4 Grid:

3: 1/SCR-2-7-8 (A), - (B), 3-4-5 (C)
4: 3 (A), 4/SCR-5 (B), 1-2-6-8 (C)
5: 1-6 (A), - (B), 4-5-7-9 (C)
6: 4-5-6 (A), 1-3-7 (B), 2-9-10-11 (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x3x2x6 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 4x1x2x3 = $24 ($12 for .50)


7th: CLM/N2L, F&M-3+, 5.5f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Wide open and while Downside Scenario (8-5) will be heavily bet on the fire sale, she's no better than the next half dozen..

Most Likely: #2 Same Kinda Crazy 6-1 WON ($12.80)
Next Best: #5 Downside Scenario 8-5 7th
Best Value: #1 Bobbe Zena 20-1 6th
Exotics Use: #8 May Flowers 15-1 2nd


8th: OC/N2X, F&M-3+, 11f-IT (P3, DD)

Best Value: #1 Daddy's Boo 20-1 5th
Next Best: #9 Songoffireandice 8-5 4th
Exotics Use: #2 Joyful Hope 4-1 8th
Super Add: #8 Coming Attraction 9-2 7th


9th: 7th Quick Call, 3yo, 5.5f-T (DD)

Most Likely: #7 Holding Gold 5-2 WON ($4.80)
Best Value: #2 Bust Another 10-1 6th
Next Best: #9 Too Discreet 2-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #5 Don't Be So Salty 12-1 5th


10th: NY-CLM, 3+, 6.5f

Best Value: #8 More Zen Tea 6-1 2nd
Next Best: #3 Bug Juice 5-2 WON ($7.80)
Exotics Use: #1 Readbytheline 3-1 8th
Super Add: #5 Street Lord 8-1 7th


P4 Grid:

7: 1-2-5-8 (A), - (B), 7 (C)
8: 1-9 (A), 2 (B), 8 (C)
9: 7 (A), 2-9 (B), 3-4-5 (C)
10: 1-3-8 (A), 1-2-5 (B), 4-6-7 (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x3x3x6 = 216 x .50 = $108
All A's: 4x2x1x3 = $24 ($12 for .50)


Good luck!
Steve