How fast was Secretariat in the Triple Crown Series?

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Secretariat was obviously an all-time great 2-year-old ... though using a lot of modern handicapping techniques - I'm not sure he was the best 2yo of the 1970's as Spectacular Bid had a couple races clearly faster than his best.

Secretariat also had all very unimpressive (relative to his extreme ability) prep races going into the '73 Triple Crown series. His Wood Memorial performance in his final prep was abysmally slow. He ran just a 12 on the Ragozin sheets and was defeated by a loose on an easy lead stablemate named Angle Light who no one would confuse for a champion.



Supposedly Secretariat was being hindered by a tooth abscess - which luckily was finally discovered before the Kentucky Derby or else he might have run another dismall race. Without the toothache - he exploded and ran 3 killer races. I've looked at some PP's, result charts, and whatnot - here are my projections of how fast his three triple crown races probably were.

* Derby: Race #9 on the card - he won in 1:59.40 - Race #8 was an 8.5 furlong race won by Knightly Dawn in 1:43.80 (38 Beyer points slower than the '73 Derby winning time)

Knightly Dawn was a next out upset winner of the Grade 1 Jersey Derby. The 3rd place finisher behind Knightly Dawn was a horse named Settecento.



As you can see - Settecento was no slouch. He defeated Mr. Prospector last time out in the Derby Trial and just missed with Secretariat's winter rival Champagne Charlie two back. His subsquent form did start to tail however. The 2nd place finisher in that race was Crimson Falcon - was a suck up closer who won a Grade 3 stakes race the following year.

The other two route races on the card were race #3 and race #10. Race #10 was a horrid looking $3,500 claimer for older males at 8.5f which was won in 1:46.40 for 8.5fs (68 Beyer points slower than the KY Derby final time) Race #3 was a $5,000 claimer for older females won in 1:45.60 for 8.5f (55 Beyer points slower than the KY Derby final time)

Based on the relationship of the times in the four races - and looking at the pp's of the horses in those four races - here are figures I project.

From Derby: Secretariat ran a 125 Beyer, Sham ran a 121, Our Native ran a 109 Beyer, and 4th place finisher Forego ran a 108.

From Twin Spires Purse: Winner ran a 87 Beyer

From 5k older female claimer: Winner ran a 70 Beyer

From 3.5K older male claimer: Winner ran a 57 Beyer


On to the Preakness ... you have a dispute between the timer (1:55) and the Daily Racing Form time (1:53 2/5) .. the DRF time is obviously correct because the 1:55 time comes with a 25 flat opening quarter in the charts. The timer was no doubt tripped early .. as three cheap claiming races in the day all featured 23 4/5 opening quarters at 8.5fs. Anyone believe the early pace in those cheap claimers was really 8 lengths faster than the Preakness?

One race prior to the Preakness - Port Conway Lane won an alw race at 8.5fs in 1:43.80 (33 Beyer points slower than DRF Preakness winning time) - one race after the Preakness Buffalo Run won a 4K starter alw for older males at 9f in 1:51.00 (38 Beyer points slower than Preakness)

Buffalo Run was a rock solid 10K claimer with a 2nd and 3rd in recent alw tries. Port Conway Lane had been 1st or 2nd in each of his last 4 recent tries at the alw level. While not stakes caliber horses - these are useful older males.

Preakness: Secretariat 123

ALW for older males: Port Conway Lane 90

4k Starter for older males: Buffalo Run 85

9.5K claimer for older males at 8.5f: 1.5 length winner gets 80

5K claimer for older males: 4.5 length winner gets 78

3K claimer for older females: 0.75 length winner gets 63


Onto the Belmont - unlike the Preakness where you had six two-turn dirt routes on the card ... the Belmont is the lone two-turn dirt route and you had wind in play.

The track was sensationally fast for the Belmont Stakes ... one race prior, Forego (who I gave a 108 Beyer to in the KY Derby) was 1/5th off of a track record DESPITE having to run against a head-wind in the considerably long run down the backstretch.....



To almost break a track record - at a commonly run distance like 8.5f - while running the vast majority of the race into a head-wind is impossible even for a great horse. The racing surface was simply supersonic fast.

The Ragozin sheets have Secretariat running a 0 for the Belmont - the same number Easy Goer got for his romping Belmont win over Sunday Silence. The difference is that Easy Goer was 4 wide on both turns in his Belmont win - and Secretariat was rail-rail. Because The Ragozin Sheets bake ground loss into the numbers - even though they both ran the same number - Secretariat would have finished 6 lengths in front of Easy Goer ground loss not withstanding.

Considering Twice A Prince was 2nd - beaten all of 31 lengths ...



There's no way in the world Secretariat's Belmont was in the high 130's. Consider Easy Goer's Belmont Beyer was a 122 - I'm going 128 for Secretariat's Belmont. It fits with the beaten horses - and it's still a stunning number considering it was earned dueling Sham into a defeat on a hot pace - while running against a wind.


I'm pretty confident no horse comes close to Secretariat's triple crown series - and in terms of how fast he ran - my opinion is 125 in the Ky Derby, 123 in the Preakness, and 128 in the Belmont. I've held this opinion for a while .. but never have bothered to spend almost an hour typing up why - and basically 'showing my work'

[Clip-Clop]

Awesome work. Could you compare the Bid with Mo as a two year old?

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Clip-Clop

Awesome work. Could you compare the Bid with Mo as a two year old?

Uncle Mo is certainly not as fast.

I think you can compare Uncle Mo's debut win with Discreet Cat's (lucky for Uncle Mo he's not being bought and heading for Dubai) - I think you can compare Uncle Mo's BC Juvenile performance with Afternoon Deelites - who absolutely freaked in career start #3 and obliterated Thunder Gulch with a 111 Beyer in the Hollywood Futurity.

[randallscott35]

Either way, people miss that 31 lengths is b/c no one ran on behind him.

[Dunbar]

Good stuff, DrugS. Thanks for posting it.


--Dunbar

[Thunder Gulch]

Great stuff as usual.

Even if the Belmont track was juiced- clearly- mid 120's for a spring 3yo is silly.

I've read a few articles that held up Bid's 7f World's Playground win (2yo) as perhaps his best from a final+ variant rating, even better than the Strub world record at 10f.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Thunder Gulch

I've read a few articles that held up Bid's 7f World's Playground win (2yo) as perhaps his best from a final+ variant rating, even better than the Strub world record at 10f.

The final+ variant rating is flawed - for starters, you'd be comparing Santa Anita with a lesser track in that example.

Spectacular Bid was much faster as a 4yo than as a 2yo. He was wickedly fast at all ages.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by randallscott35

Either way, people miss that 31 lengths is b/c no one ran on behind him.

Sure - but it was as amazing a display of sustained speed as anything maybe in history.

Sham tried to go with him and he stopped in dramatic fashion far before the wire.

Had Forego been entered in that Belmont - and sat off the Secretariat/Sham battle in a perfect spot ... he still would have been trounced despite the perfect setup. Secretariat simply never softened up. Obviously the winning margin would have been only about one-third of what it was.

[randallscott35]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Sure - but it was as amazing a display of sustained speed as anything maybe in history.

Sham tried to go with him and he stopped in dramatic fashion far before the wire.

Had Forego been entered in that Belmont - and sat off the Secretariat/Sham battle in a perfect spot ... he still would have been trounced despite the perfect setup. Secretariat simply never softened up. Obviously the winning margin would have been only about one-third of what it was.

Something can be exceptional and overrated at the same time.....And then something can be exceptional and underrated like Bid is.