At what odds would you have bet "All Others" in the Derby Future Wager?

[Dunbar]

What odds would have been high enough to get you to bet #24, "All Other 3-year-olds" in the Ky Derby Future Wager, Pool 1?

[randallscott35]

3-1

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by randallscott35

3-1

You were too quick for me! I was still trying to figure out how to post a poll.

--Dunbar

[randallscott35]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

You were too quick for me! I was still trying to figure out how to post a poll.

--Dunbar

I think the value isn't there anymore. I bet a grand on the field in '01 when War Emblem won it. It was 2.8-1 and I felt that was value. I haven't bet it since or for an individual interest that I can think of.

[randallscott35]

I would like to see about double the betting interests as a starting point.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

What odds would have been high enough to get you to bet #24, "All Other 3-year-olds" in the Ky Derby Future Wager, Pool 1?

This year lower than most, because I have zero faith in the supposed contenders, but I said 7/2.

However, I have no interest in betting a futures wager with only 24 interests.

[randallscott35]

They are holding your money for months at a time. Lower the takeout on the bet to 10%. Adverstise that. Increase betting interests. Etc....They just continue to do things the way they always have. Square pegs, round holes, decreasing handle on this bet is a okay.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by randallscott35

They are holding your money for months at a time. Lower the takeout on the bet to 10%. Adverstise that. Increase betting interests. Etc....They just continue to do things the way they always have. Square pegs, round holes, decreasing handle on this bet is a okay.

I get the lower takeout arguments in general....but the idea that it should be lower because they are holding your money for 2 1/2 months makes no real world sense.

Based on interest rates it's an argument based on little to no actual significance.

[knickslions2]

No way I bet it unless it's at least 9/2. Anything lower I would rather take my chances on derby day with better odds.

[randallscott35]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I get the lower takeout arguments in general....but the idea that it should be lower because they are holding your money for 2 1/2 months makes no real world sense.

Based on interest rates it's an argument based on little to no actual significance.

At today's interest rates that is true, but I'm taling more about drumming up support for the wager.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by randallscott35

At today's interest rates that is true, but I'm taling more about drumming up support for the wager.

That's fine....but the length of time they are holding your money is superfluous.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by knickslions2

No way I bet it unless it's at least 9/2. Anything lower I would rather take my chances on derby day with better odds.

Where do you get this idea that you'll get better odds on Derby Day. Unless you like a horse in the "All Others", it's highly unlikely you'll get better odds on Derby Day than in Pool 1.

Of the 5 horses in Pool 1 that ran in last year's Derby:

POTN was 6-1 in the Derby, but 13-1 in Pool 1
Papa Clem was 12-1 in the Derby, but 44-1 in Pool 1
Choc Candy was 10-1 in the Derby, but 28-1 in Pool 1
W. Side Bernie was 32-1 in the Derby, but 42-1 in Pool 1
Friesen Fire was 7-2 in the Derby, but 18-1 in Pool 1

--Dunbar

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

Where do you get this idea that you'll get better odds on Derby Day. Unless you like a horse in the "All Others", it's highly unlikely you'll get better odds on Derby Day than in Pool 1.

Of the 5 horses in Pool 1 that ran in last year's Derby:

POTN was 6-1 in the Derby, but 13-1 in Pool 1
Papa Clem was 12-1 in the Derby, but 44-1 in Pool 1
Choc Candy was 10-1 in the Derby, but 28-1 in Pool 1
W. Side Bernie was 32-1 in the Derby, but 42-1 in Pool 1
Friesen Fire was 7-2 in the Derby, but 18-1 in Pool 1

--Dunbar

but how many of them were 'all others'? you'd be better off betting a horse derby day than in having an all others ticket on them right now.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by Danzig

but how many of them were 'all others'? you'd be better off betting a horse derby day than in having an all others ticket on them right now.

I don't get this thinking, either, Danzig. Yeah, if you can pick the one out of 375 "All Others" horses that's going to win, you're better off waiting until Derby Day. But maybe you liked some other "All Others" horse last year besides Mine That Bird. Were you better off waiting for Derby Day to bet the horse you liked?

Betting "All Others" in Pool 1 can't reasonably be compared to waiting until Derby Day to bet a single "All Others" horse. In the pool you have 300+ horses that can win the bet for you. If you liked an "All Others" horse last year, chances are excellent that it wasn't Mine That Bird. But your "All Others" Pool 1 bet would have paid off anyway.

--Dunbar

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

I don't get this thinking, either, Danzig. Yeah, if you can pick the one out of 375 "All Others" horses that's going to win, you're better off waiting until Derby Day. But maybe you liked some other "All Others" horse last year besides Mine That Bird. Were you better off waiting for Derby Day to bet the horse you liked?

Betting "All Others" in Pool 1 can't reasonably be compared to waiting until Derby Day to bet a single "All Others" horse. In the pool you have 300+ horses that can win the bet for you. If you liked an "All Others" horse last year, chances are excellent that it wasn't Mine That Bird. But your "All Others" Pool 1 bet would have paid off anyway.

--Dunbar

yeah, that's true. i guess i'm just looking at 9-2 vs no horse being lower than 4 or 5-1 on derby day.