7/23: Saratoga (Opening Day)

[Kasept]

Eludicated thoughts regarding commencement of another Spa session earlier (http://www.derbytrail.com/writings/display.php?ID=49), with this particular Wednesday on the calendar as welcome in these parts as the first true spring day after a long winter. It has been a different kind of period of discontent since the bitter 2008 Triple Crown managed to denegrate far more than celebrate the sport and industry. The next six weeks can go a long way towards bridging the dischord around racing by providing an authentic representation of the game's purest qualities and attributes.

I hope everyone enjoys the 36 days of Saratoga, and I wish all good luck in their racing-related ventures.


SARATOGA RACE COURSE

Distinct possibility that the day is affected by heavy weather.. Turf course was less than firm as of late Tuesday..

Pre-Scratches...


1st: S/ALW, 3+, 1m-IT (P3, DD)

Very tricky opener with host of possibilities.. Note pace scenario could shift should course come up heavy..

OFF THE TURF

Most Likely: #10 SCR
Best Value: #4 SCR
Next Best: #2 SCR
Exotics Add: #9 SCR


2nd: MSW, 2yo, 5.5f (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #2 Cognito 2-1 WON
Best Value: #7 Brave Victory 5-1 2nd
Next Best: #1e SCR
Exotics Add: #8 In Speight of It 15-1 4th


3rd: OC/C, 3+, 6f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1 Accredit 8-5 WON
Best Value: #2 Connecticut Yankee 5-1 6th
Next Best: #6 Bordeaux Bandit 12-1 5th


4th: NYB-MSW, 3+, 8.5f-IT P3, DD)

OFF THE TURF

Most Likely: #4 Strategic Vision 8-1 10th
Best Value: #6 Miracle Causeway 15-1 5th
Next Best: #3 Cops Fever 3-1 2nd
Exotics Add: #1 SCR WON (Remaining half of entry)


5th: NYB-MSW, 2yo, 5f (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #1 Fiddlers Afleet 5-2 3rd
Best Value: #8 SCR
Next Best: #2 Lookin At Her 9-2 WON
Super Add: #7 Vinnie Van Go 7-2 2nd

$1 Exacta Paid $22.10
$1 Trifecta Paid $41.75


<$50 P4 Play:

2: 1-2-7
3: 1
4: 1-3-4-6
5: 1-2-7-8

3x1x4x4 = $48

$1 P4 Paid $119.50


6th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 5.5f-T (G/S, DD, P3)

OFF THE TURF

Most Likely: #5 Of All Times 3-1 3rd
Best Value: #9 Jazz Nation 6-1 WON
Next Best: #8 Marq of Love 7-2 5th
Exotics Add: #2 SCR


7th: NYB-OC/N2X, 3+, 8.5f-IT (P4, P3, DD)

OFF THE TURF

Most Likely: #2 SCR WON (Remaining half of entry)
Best Value: #6 SCR
Next Best: #3 Continental Reins 15-1 2nd (Other half of entry)
Exotics Add: #9 SCR

$1 Exacta Paid $16.90


8th: The High Rock Spring, NYB-3+, 5.5f-T (P3, DD)

OFF THE TURF

Most Likely: #5 SCR
Next Best: #4 SCR
Best Value #7 SCR
Exotics Add: #10 Posted 6-1 4th


9th: 90th Schuylerville (Gr. III), 2yo-F, 6f (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #3 Collegiate 7-2 4th
Best Value: #4 Renda 15-1 5th
Next Best: #1 Ocean Colors 5-2 9th
Super Add: #5 Chartreux 15-1 6th


10th: CLM, 3+, 6f (Super)

Most Likely: #1e Levine entry 4-1 4th
Best Value: #4 Fregata 10-1 5th
Next Best: #8 SCR
Super Add: #9 Drums of Thunder 15-1 7th


<$75 P4 Play:

7: 2
8: 4-5-7
9: 1-3-4
10: 1-2-4-6-7-8-9-11

1x3x3x8 = $72


Good luck!
Steve

[hockey2315]

It's probably stupid to take a horse that broke her maiden vs. NYBs but I like Chartreux a little in the Schuylerville. . .

[jms62]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

It's probably stupid to take a horse that broke her maiden vs. NYBs but I like Chartreux a little in the Schuylerville. . .

That is where I wound up looking for a big price/best shot.. Having said that , Assmussen will be tough to beat.

[Bogey]

I'm going to take a shot with #4 Flying Private in the 2nd for Lukas. Liked that he showed speed in debut before throwing in the towel and he's worked a bullet in the mud. Also, I'm in agreement with Steve on Strategic Vision in the 4th.

[CSC]

Originally Posted by jms62

That is where I wound up looking for a big price/best shot.. Having said that , Assmussen will be tough to beat.

This is a race where you like to look at who is possibly the best freshman sire of the group, Collegiate by Saarland impressed me by him showing speed in a 5f Mdn and winning in that debut. Logically you would expect Saarland's to improve with more racing.

[Clip-Clop]

Renda is a really interesting horse, with a shot at making it interesting, and profitable too.

[ontheoutside]

i looked at your picks
and as im looking
the rain is falling like hell at my house 30 miles away
so my question is
are your picks based on fast and firm tracks?or are your picks based on incoming wheather?
how would you go as far as your picksthat are already written and incoming wheater goes?thanks

[Hickory Hill Hoff]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

It's probably stupid to take a horse that broke her maiden vs. NYBs but I like Chartreux a little in the Schuylerville. . .

Looks like the race sets up well for her.

[CSC]

Originally Posted by Clip-Clop

Renda is a really interesting horse, with a shot at making it interesting, and profitable too.

Another freshman sire, Medaglia D'oro's should be fast out of the gate. Have the feeling MD will be a solid 2 yr old sire. Picking anymore other than The Winning Colors/Asmussen youngster should yield some sort of price.

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

It's probably stupid to take a horse that broke her maiden vs. NYBs but I like Chartreux a little in the Schuylerville. . .

My pick too, good luck and lets hope we get a break in the weather.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by CSC

This is a race where you like to look at who is possibly the best freshman sire of the group, Collegiate by Saarland impressed me by him showing speed in a 5f Mdn and winning in that debut. Logically you would expect Saarland's to improve with more racing.

I laughed

Originally Posted by Hickory Hill Hoff

Looks like the race sets up well for her.

I agree, there is a ton of speed in here and at probably 20-1 I'd pay to find out if she's good enough. Restricted race or not she put in a nice rally on the outside... She's bred pretty well for slop, if it ends up that way later.

[Sightseek]

Lots of scratches...

http://www.equibase.com/premium/changes/SAR-changes.asp

[CSC]

Originally Posted by philcski

I laughed



I agree, there is a ton of speed in here and at probably 20-1 I'd pay to find out if she's good enough. Restricted race or not she put in a nice rally on the outside... She's bred pretty well for slop, if it ends up that way later.

Glad I can provide some laughs, ironically a slow poke like Saarland might turn out to be a good sire and I stress the word 'might'.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by CSC

Glad I can provide some laughs, ironically a slow poke like Saarland might turn out to be a good sire and I stress the word 'might'.

He might be alright. I wouldn't buy any of his offspring on speculation at this point though. You really never know with these things, honestly not many people thought Tiznow would be a great sire, and I think he's been tremendous. Of course Tiznow was 1,000X the horse Saarland was...

[CSC]

Originally Posted by philcski

He might be alright. I wouldn't buy any of his offspring on speculation at this point though. You really never know with these things, honestly not many people thought Tiznow would be a great sire, and I think he's been tremendous. Of course Tiznow was 1,000X the horse Saarland was...

True, look at Smart Strike, he was a very good horse also but I think many would be surprised how well he has done as a stallian. Both are impeccably bred.

[philcski]

On a side note, I think Johnnie Bye Night is very dangerous since they've come off the turf and the track stays wet. Probably will be 5-1 but in multirace wagers he's the kind of horse that can juice the payoffs significantly so if you have a strong opinion in the 9th and 10th (i don't) the pick 3 should pay well.

[MISTERGEE]

Originally Posted by Sightseek

Lots of scratches...

http://www.equibase.com/premium/changes/SAR-changes.asp

CARD IS DESTROYED?

[sumitas]

Gone Astray finishes 3rd in race 2. Imagine that, a 2 yr old w/o lasix. We've got Connecticutt Yankee in the 3rd w/o L. The 4th has 2 w/o L ,Little Farmer and Miracle Causway. 5th race, a juvi, has A Flying Jet, Scooty The Pro and Wiseacre w/o L. That's 3 out of the remaining 7 w/o L. Out of the original 12 entries 6 were entered w/o L. The Schuylerville has Cameron Crazies (D. Wayne Lucas) w/o L. Just something to take note of.

The 3rd is a $67k allowance. With purse money like this I think I'd run through quicksand.

Cognito (Langfuhr) win 2nd race. These Langfuhrs do like NY.

[hockey2315]

Bordeaux Bandit looks pretty good on the track. . .

[sumitas]

Accredit (E Dubai) wins and that brings back the memory of his sire setting some NTR at Belmont over a sealed track.