8/23: Saratoga (Travers Day)

[Kasept]

SARATOGA


POST-SCRATCHES


1st: MSW, 2yo, 8.5f-Inner (P5, P3, DD)

Best Value: #4 Feral 6-1: McPeek turf stretches out of solid debut try in fast dirt sprint..
Next Best: #6 Bottas 7-2: Clement lawn route debut types have fired all summer..
Exotics Use: #2 Ambassador Blue 5-1: Gargan 2nd timer mixes it up with barn's nice ones..


2nd: OC/N2X, 3+, 9.5f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Extended route with murky pace..

Most Likely: #1a (POE) Activist Investing 7-2
Next Best: #7 Crystal Quest 5-2
Exotics Use: #3 Then 7-2
Super Add: #8 Vesting 3-1


3rd: MSW, 2yo-F, 6.5f (Must Pay P5, P3, DD)

First of the 2 deep, high profile juvy dirt MSW's..

Best Value: #2 Glamorize 5-1: Chad readied Stewart's $1MM Randomized half sis downstate; Maxfield 25% with his FTS so far..
Next Best: #8 Tam Tam 7-2
Exotics Use: #3 Touch of Magic 3-1
Super Add: #4 Five Bars 8-1


4th: NY-MSW, 3+, 6f (P4, P3, DD)

Confounding assembly with several refuseniks and other assorted chazarai. Pick and pray..

Best Value: #9 Long Pour 12-1
Next Best: #8 Call Bob 6-1
Exotics Use: #1e Bond entry 6-1
Super Add: #7 Keepinitreal 5-2


5th: NY-ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 5.5f-T (Must Pay P5, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #6 Annascaul 5-2
Best Value: #4 Marvelous Madison 8-1
Next Best: #10 Silsbee 3-1
Exotics Use: #8 Phoebeinwonderland 12-1


P5 Grid:

1: 4-6 (A), - (B), - (C)
2: 1-7 (A), 3-8 (B), - (C)
3: 2-3-8 (A), - (B), - (C)
4: 8-9 (A), - (B), 1-7-10 (C)
5: 4-6 (A), 10 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x4x3x2x3 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 2x2x3x2x2 = 48 x .50 = $24
Backup (AAACA): 2x2x3x3x3 = 108 x .50 = $54 (1-7-10 in 4th)


P4 Grid:

2: 1-7 (A), 3-8 (B), - (C)
3: 2-3-8 (A), - (B), - (C)
4: 8-9 (A), - (B), 1-7-10 (C)
5: 4-6 (A), 10 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x3x2x3 = 72 x .50 = $36
All A's: 2x3x2x2 = 24 x .50 = $12
Backup (AACA): 2x3x3x3 = 54 x .50 = $27 (1-7-10 in 4th)


6th: MSW, 2yo, 6f (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #3 Dr. Kapur 9-2
Best Value: #1 My World 8-1
Next Best: #8 Stimulate 6-1
Exotics Use: #4 Dark Assault 10-1


7th: Lake Placid (G2), 3yo-F, 1m-Inner (Must Pay P5, P3, DD)

Favored Play With Fire is just one of the ones that can win..

Most Likely: #3 May Day Ready 5-2
Best Value: #4 Warming 6-1
Next Best: #1 Play With Fire 2-1
Exotics Use: #2 Eponine 7-2


P5 Grid:

3: 2-8 (A), - (B), - (C)
4: 8-9 (A), - (B), 1-7-10 (C)
5: 4-6 (A), 10 (B), - (C)
6: 1-3-8 (A), - (B), - (C)
7: 3-4 (A), 1-2 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x2x3x3x4 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 2x2x2x3x2 = 48 x .50 = $24
Backup (ACAAA): 2x3x2x3x2 = 72 x .50 = $36 (1-7-10 in 4th)


P4 Grid:

4: 8-9 (A), - (B), 1-7-10 (C)
5: 4-6 (A), 10 (B), - (C)
6: 1-3-8 (A), - (B), - (C)
7: 3-4 (A), 1-2 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x3x3x4 = 72 x .50 = $36
All A's: 2x2x3x2 = 24 x .50 = $12
Backup (CAAA): 3x2x3x2 = 36 x .50 = $18 (1-7-10 in 4th)


8th: NY-ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 8.5f-T (P6, P3, DD)

NY breds long on the turf are always wide open..

Most Likely: #10 Summer Whirl 5-1
Best Value: #6 Dividend Recap 8-1
Next Best: #2 Gallant Greta 7-2
Exotics Use: #8 Loveumissumeanit 5-1


9th: Personal Ensign (G1), F&M-4+, 9f (Must Pay All G1 P5, G/S, P3, DD)

Repeat of last will make Leslie's Rose VERY hard to beat..

Most Likely: #6 Leslie's Rose 9-2
Best Value: #4 Dorth Vader 6-1
Next Best: #7 Thorpedo Anna 6-5
Exotics Use: #5 Raging Sea 5-1


P5 Grid:

5: 4-6-10 (A), - (B), - (C)
6: 1-3-8 (A), - (B), - (C)
7: 3-4 (A), 1-2 (B), - (C)
8: 6-10 (A), 2-8 (B), - (C)
9: 6 (A), - (B), 4-7 (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x3x4x4x1 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 3x3x2x2x1 = 36 x .50 = $18
Backup (AAAAC): 3x3x2x2x2 = 72 x .50 = $36 (4-7 in 9th)


P4 Grid:

6: 1-3-8 (A), - (B), - (C)
7: 3-4 (A), 1-2 (B), - (C)
8: 6-10 (A), 2-8 (B), - (C)
9: 4-6 (A), - (B), 1-5-7 (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x4x4x1 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 3x2x2x2 = 24 x .50 = $12
Backup (AAAC): 3x2x2x3 = 36 x .50 = $18 (1-5-7 in 9th)


10th: Allen Jerkens (G1), 3yo, 7f (Late P5, All G1 P4, P3, DD)

Like it's filly counterpart The Test, this event never disappoints. Baffert sends 3 against the resurgent Chancer McPatrick, but the competition runs literallt top to bottom among the octet..

Best Value: #8 Madaket Road 6-1
Next Best: #4 Chancer McPatrick 5-1
Exotics Use: #3 Barnes 9-2
Super Add: #1 Patch Adams 3-1


11th: Ballerina (G1), F&M-3+, 7f (P4, P3, DD)

Wasn't expecting to tab Hope Road on top, but glowing worktab makes her the one to beat. Majestic Oops turns back for Dan Ward and is too big a price to ignore..

Most Likely: #9 Hope Road 3-1
Best Value: #3 Majestic Oops 15-1
Next Best: #5 Claret Beret 6-1
Exotics Use: #4 Halina's Forte 10-1


12th: Forego (G1), 4+, 7f (P3, DD)

Asmussen barn excels in spots like these and Extra Anejo gets favorable scenario for closing kick. On tilt coming in at a bulbous price..

Best Value: #5 Extra Anejo 15-1
Next Best: #4 Book'em Danno 8-5
Exotics Use: #1 Most Wanted 5-1
Super Add: #8 Scotland 12-1


13th: Travers (G1), 3yo, 10f (DD)

Soveriegnty probably wins, but Magnitude will make everyone chase and Strategic Focus should be that much better after learning experience in the Curlin. If you can beat the division leader here, your multi-race wagers will explode..

Best Value: #3 Strategic Focus 6-1
Most Likely: #4 Sovereignty 2-5
Next Best: #1 Magnitude 2-1


P5 Grid:

9: 6 (A), - (B), 4-7 (C)
10: 4-8 (A), - (B), - (C)
11: 3-9 (A), 4-5 (B), - (C)
12: 1-4-5 (A), 6-7-8 (B), - (C)
13: 1-3-4 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 1x2x4x6x3 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 1x2x2x3x3 = 36 x .50 = $18
Backup (CAAAA): 2x2x2x3x3 = 72 x .50 = $36 (4-7 in 9th)


P4 Grid:

10: 4-8 (A), - (B), - (C)
11: 3-9 (A), 4-5 (B), - (C)
12: 1-4-5 (A), - (B), 6-7-8 (C)
13: 1-3-4 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x4x3x3 = 72 x .50 = $36
All A's: 2x2x3x3 = 36 x .50 = $18
Backup (CAAA): 2x2x3x3 = 36 x .50 = $18 (6-7-8 in 12th)


14th: NY-MCLM, F&M-3+, 1m-Inner

Rough ending to what should be a great day..

Most Likely: #13 Addagirl Addie 9-2
Next Best: #1 Dancin Jane 5-2
Best Value: #12 I Heard Somethings 20-1
Exotics Use: #9 Catholic Edition 5-1


P5 Grid:

10: 4-8 (A), - (B), - (C)
11: 3-9 (A), 4-5 (B), - (C)
12: 1-4-5 (A), - (B), 6-7-8 (C)
13: 1-3-4 (A), - (B), - (C)
14: 1-13 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x4x3x3x2 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 2x2x3x3x2 = 72 x .50 = $36
Backup (AACAA): 2x2x3x3x2 = 72 x .50 = $36 (6-7-8 in 12th)


P4 Grid:

11: 3-9 (A), 4-5 (B), - (C)
12: 1-4-5-8 (A), 6-7 (B), - (C)
13: 4 (A), - (B), 1-3 (C)
14: 1-13 (A), 9-12 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x6x1x4 = 96 x .50 = $48
All A's: 2x4x1x2 = 16 x .50 = $8
Backup (AACAA): 2x4x2x2 = 32 x .50 = $16 (1-3 in 13th)


Let's get lucky!
Steve

[Kasept]

Saratoga ~ Travers Day Scratches & Changes

1 #1 Remember Mamba Scratched @ 9:06 AM
#8 Conquering Force Scratched @ 9:06 AM
#9 Grunge Scratched @ 9:06 AM
#10 Akkadian Scratched @ 9:06 AM
#11 Tartabull Scratched @ 9:06 AM

2 #4 Beuys (IRE) Scratched @ 9:07 AM
#9 Uncaged Scratched @ 9:07 AM
#10 Society Man Scratched @ 9:07 AM
#11 Le Gris Scratched @ 9:07 AM

3 #1 Celebrity Quest Scratched @ 9:07 AM
#6 Just Tell Anne Scratched @ 9:07 AM

4 #6 Coach Pitino Scratched @ 9:08 AM

5 #11 Shaman Princess Scratched @ 9:08 AM
#12 Running Rio Scratched @ 9:08 AM
#15 Nina Kay Scratched @ 9:08 AM
#16 Unicorn Cake Scratched @ 9:08 AM

6 #2 Paul's Recovery Scratched @ 9:08 AM

8 #3 Honorable Becky Scratched @ 9:09 AM
#14 Island Fox Scratched @ 9:09 AM
#15 Dream On Cara Scratched @ 9:09 AM
#16 Higher Force Scratched @ 9:09 AM

11 #1 Mystic Lake Scratched @ 9:10 AM

14 #10 Rad Llama Scratched @ 9:11 AM
#14 Forget Tomorrow Scratched @ 9:11 AM
#15 My Gorgeous Scratched @ 9:11 AM
#16 Princess Summer Scratched @ 9:11 AM

[Kasept]

SAR SCR/CHG'S

[moses]

Steve, good luck.

I’ve lost out on too many multis by betting against Sovereignty. So today is the day, I’m singling him in multis. Now is everyone’s chance to fade him and hammer Magnitude and Strategic Focus.

But seriously, good luck to all.