Quote:
Originally Posted by Dunbar
More like 47%:
YEAR, Derby Winner, Pool 1 Payout
2013 (Orb*) $5.00
2012 (I'll Have Another $60.20
2011 (Animal Kingdom*) $6.20
2010 (Super Saver) $43.20
2009 (Mine That Bird*) $5.80
2008 (Big Brown*) $8.60
2007 (Street Sense) $22.80
2006 (Barbaro) $40.20
2005 (Giacomo) $52.00
2004 (Smarty Jones*) $5.60
2003 (Funny Cide) $188.00
2002 (War Emblem*) $7.60
2001 (Monarchos) $36.60
2000 (Fusaichi Pegasus) $27.80
1999 (Charismatic*) $10.20
--Dunbar
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$30 wagered as a $2 bet every year would have returned $49 which is actually a 63.3% flat return.
damn. i've never understood the attraction of this particular wager until you posted the retrospective.
it's still not anything i would consider handicapping but unless you want to argue the sample size is too small, "all others" could be a good bet.
even at 2-5 and assuming a conservative hit rate of 50% (pool 1 is 7/15 so i don't think 50% is unreasonable this much earlier) you either get a 40% return or lose everything. a long term expectation of 20% in roughly 5 months. annualized that and you're near 50%.
i don't know anyone that would be unhappy with that return.