Originally Posted by ateamstupid
Thursday, August 15
Early Pick 4:
3rd: #3 Pure Sensation clearly the horse to beat off his debut, when he dueled 3-wide with returning Saratoga Special winner Corfu through an extremely fast pace and never quit trying, finishing just a half-length back at the wire. He figures to blast out of the gate, hug the rail and put on a strong 5-furlong speed display. The other horse I'd consider is #9 Aarons Orient out of the same race, but he was clearly inferior to Pure Sensation that day. The only possible excuse I can give him is he didn't like being in between horses and drawing outside today, could sit a more comfortable trip.
4th: #1 Sneaky Blowout, #7 All That and #8 Brabbham are all very logical, but I'll also include #4 Rap d'Oro, who ran two very good races over the winter before a poor grass try and a disastrous run behind Moreno on the Belmont undercard. Hushion is always to be respected and if the layoff has straightened Rap d'Oro out, he's very dangerous at a good number.
5th: Nothing wrong with M/L favorite #3 Flowing Mane, but it's not as if he's significantly faster than these and there are several other options. #5 Mr. Starr's Report is a typical Jack Fisher longshot, with competitive races on the go-back and a useful prep at CNL last time out, reaching out to Lezcano is a good sign. #6 Summer Sands has a good turf pedigree and #9 Mr Algebra and #10 Saved the Best are both logical.
6th: #5 Much Stronger the clear horse to beat and I'll press with him, but he comes off a perfect-trip win going shorter and is facing a tougher group this time. He's also had problems with bearing out in the past. I like #8 Jumpinofftheedge at a big price. His debut was an enormous effort for a Phil Serpe 1st time starter and in his 2nd race, he chased an eye-popping pace set by Willy Elliott; lands in a race today with much less speed and could draw a great trip from the outside. #3 Ration chased a fast pace while wide last time out and ran better than it looks on paper. If there is a meltdown, #4 Perilous Indian could benefit, stretching out a furlong after a good close against some nice 3YO sprinters last time out.
$.50 3,9/1,4,7,8/3,5,6,9,10/3,4,5,8 $80
$1 3/1,4,7,8/3,5,6,9,10/5 $20
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