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Old 04-10-2011, 01:02 AM
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DaTruth DaTruth is offline
Churchill Downs
 
Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: Louisiana
Posts: 1,969
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dunbar View Post
DrugS, in your first list on Mar 12, you listed 27 horses, and you gave "The Rest" a 5% chance to win. I posted that I thought 5% was much too low a figure. You disagreed.

In your current list, there are 9 horses individually listed that came from "The Rest" of your 3/12 list, and you are now giving them a combined chance of winning of about 15.5%. And there is still another 3.75% chance given to the current "Rest" of the horses. That suggests that the horses in your 3/12 "The Rest" group had a 19% chance to win, not a 5% chance to win.

btw, I like these efforts a lot. It beats the hell out of someone posting "I really like so-and-so" or "so-and-so has no chance".

--Dunbar
I'm sure he is up all night trying to decide whether he should give a horse a 1% chance or a 0.8% chance.
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Still trying to outsmart me, aren't you, mule-skinner? You want me to think that you don't want me to go down there, but the subtle truth is you really don't want me to go down there!
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