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Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS
Show me a race prior to her 15 length blowout victory in supersonic time, in a race she wasn't even favored in - that suggests she was a "highly talented filly"
I'm sorry - but improving 13+ lengths over a career top on an established form - with just four weeks rest - that is no "devolpment curve" - not even close.
I'm not saying it was illegal medication that led to one of the great form reversals of all-time .. I don't know what it was ... but it sure wasn't a development curve.
When is the right time and where is the right place? never and nowhere?
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You've been watching this game at an expert level for a long time... you've never seen a 2yo/3yo explode 10 lengths faster? Happens all the time. I don't know the intracacies of her trips prior to the N2L win, or whether the Beyer figures are at all accurate for any of those races... what if the prior two races were adjusted down 5-6 points? Then we're talking a 7 length improvement (i.e., just over 1 second)- how is that unbelievable? Making my own figures for all these years, I've learned that figures, especially for young horses, don't tell the whole story.
In her tragic case... never and nowhere is probably right. I don't have an issue, ever, with retrospective analysis of form as it's a great learning experience, but I just don't get your comparison to this obvious Scott Lake special.