[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by Danzig

but, here's the thing...

if you flip a coin, even if you flip heads 20 times in a row, the odds for the 21st flip is still 50/50. same as 200 times in a row, or 2k....
so, the odds on chrome winning the tc have to be based only on the competitors he faces that day. past failures really mean nothing in regards to the odds of this horse winning a certain race on a certain day.
yes, it's a tricky thing to do, because so much can go wrong.
illness, injury, bad ride, bad break, safety pin, a horse who loves the belmont strip, jockey panic, misreading the early pace, not enough stamina, and the simple fact that horses aren't machines.

i don't know if chrome can do it. lots of great horses didn't win, or didn't have the opportunity. and several of the triple crown winners couldn't have gotten some of the non-winners to break a sweat in a race.
i'd like to see him win it-but then again, i think the sport benefits more from the chase!

Actually, coin flipping isn't a 50/50 for heads/tails thing like everyone thinks.

Close enough though.