Quote:
Originally Posted by ateamstupid
IMO it's a manageable sequence. The toughest of the four maiden races is the first leg, so you can get a look at the board. Fogozano ran well against a tough field in his debut, so unless Pletcher's horse in the 11th is a rocketship, he could be a realistic single. I also think Nora's Song is clearly the horse to beat in the 13th and the 9th has a small group of logicals. I actually think the toughest race is the $6,250 claimer in the 10th. Plenty of horses with back races that fit and a murky pace scenario.
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The 8th and 10th aside, which are very difficult races, the 11th seems wide open to me.
I agree Fogozano ran well, but not single worthy for me at least, especially with a Pletcher firster in there. They paid 260k for Artic Bear last April, which is a lot for an offspring of Political Force. If you can look past the debut, his work pattern looks alright and he could improve enough to win. Lochte was a 475k yearling so it wouldn't totally shock me to see him come out running although his trainers runners usually need one. Herd Mentality appears to be working well in the morning for a trainer who can get a horse to win first out. Best Man did everything but win first out, for a trainer who is good going turf to dirt and the dam was 2nd in the Gallant Bloom on dirt and finally even Maximum Impact isn't impossible, especially because Dennis Manning loves to put a horse over who has been working in Ocala.
after all that, you're probably right and Fogozano will win and pay $5 but that race is giving me fits.