Quote:
Originally Posted by ateamstupid
philcski, who doesn't post here anymore for some reason, brought this to my attention on Twitter. The Rainbow 6 has been routinely paying well above the parlay since the jackpot got into seven figures. So I ran the #'s for the last 3 weeks:
Jan. 24 - R6 pays $543 (parlay: $384)
Jan. 25 - R6 pays $1,147 (parlay: $785)
Jan. 26 - R6 pays $8,933 (parlay: $3,541)
Jan. 27 - R6 pays $464 (parlay: $255)
Jan. 30 - R6 pays $1,188 (parlay: $703)
Jan. 31 - R6 pays $10,276 (parlay: $2,152)
Feb. 1 - R6 pays $14,308 (parlay: $6,443)
Feb. 2 - R6 pays $1,053 (parlay: $306)
Feb. 3 - R6 pays $15,017 (parlay: $6,689)
Feb. 6 - R6 pays $111,535 (parlay: $408,887)
Feb. 7 - R6 pays $4,429 (parlay: $1,792)
Feb. 8 - R6 pays $3,521 (parlay: $706)
Feb. 9 - R6 pays $1,590 (parlay: $1,628)
Feb. 10 - R6 pays $18,246 (parlay: $15,117)
It's beaten the parlay 12 out of the last 14 cards and the only time it was a notably bad bet was that crazy day where bombs won every race. It's also been more than double the parlay on 7 of 14 cards. Something to think about at least. Logic says this would be a terrible bet except on mandatory payout day, but the recent numbers say otherwise.
|
It's a long story why I've stayed away.
But to continue on what you have started, since January 24th, it has paid an average of 2.34X the parlay (inclusive of the day where it was 111k on a 408k parlay) with 5 of those days exceeding 3.5X. To put that in perspective, I ran some numbers on recent pick 3's at Gulfstream and the late pick 4 and pick 6 at Aqueduct.
GP P3's: average of 1.40X, low of .498X, high of 2.555X.
AQU P4's: average of 1.91X, low of 1.14X, high of 3.59X.
AQU P6's: average of 2.31X on carryover days/1.94X on noncarryover days
Further, the payout relative to parlay is only relevant when the pool is sufficiently deep, which is why I chose GP & AQU as the control groups. The probability of a very high or low payout goes up significantly when the number of winning tickets falls into the single digits- which explains the two-ticket .27X day. Take a look at small tracks where there are frequently pool sweeps; the payoffs can be absurd (in both directions.)
So the Rainbow 6 is actually outperforming traditionally "good" wagers on a parlay comparison, offers players an affordable entry to a traditionally difficult wager, and has been generating massive handle on a daily basis. Because on the surface the "effective" takeout is high it's easy to bash, but the reality determined from some simple number crunching debases that theory.
Why is this the case? To me it's best described as sitting at a poker table where a third of the players are only there to chase the bad beat jackpot- freely handing over their money to the conscious player. The next third understand the rules of the game, but only have a basic knowledge of strategy. The final third has stepped down from the higher limit table and understands the nuances of the game.