Quote:
Originally Posted by Kasept
If you're asking how I would approach it with a bankroll, my own personal inclination would be for modest priced purchases with upside deeper in the catalog.
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I think if you're buying at a yearling sale -- and your goal is the best possible long term ROI -- you have to go for the absolute sales topper type (if you can afford it) or just stay away from it.
That is unless you're someone who is setup to pinhook. Which is by far the best chance you have. Doing that you'd want precociously bred horses who can drill well in nine months from now.
It costs way too much to get a horse to the races to be fishing for modest priced purchases at yearling sales which have the odds way, way, way stacked against them.
The best chance for a buyer is at 2yo sales -- with modestly bred horses who work well unblinkered and sell in the $15,000 to $95,000 range. And those are hardly great investments, but you've got a good chance to win money with every single one of them if they can stay healthy...and a lot of times they don't stay healthy for very long.
However, the horses who don't perform well in the under-tack at 2yo's and have some breeding are sensational rip-offs! You'll see horses selling for $300,000 who you know have no shot of ever winning a maiden claiming race at a decent track.