Quote:
Originally Posted by Calzone Lord
It's a lot trickier than it looks -- especially doing it 24 hours and before scratches.
There have been scores of winners in the 40/1 to 90/1 range in different parts of the country almost every single day. Most of them you never hear about -- other than like that bomb at Calder who won with a Mine That Bird like move and was absurdly mentioned in the Louisville blog and in a thread here.
Today was a very slow day because it was Tuesday and not many tracks ran -- but you had an $88 winner and a $68 winner. You had one race where a 1/9 favorite broke down. You had another race where a horse won by 32 lengths at Finger Lakes. Last Tuesday, you had two 46/1 shots run 1st and 2nd in the same race. Strange stuff even happens on Tuesdays when almost no tracks run.
You see some weird stuff in that some of these bums are way overbet. The horse in the 5th race at Suffolk today went off at 23/1 odds and finished 6th of seven. Amazingly, a horse who looked far better in there went off at 45/1 and finished 3rd.
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One thing I used to do pretty well was eliminate horses that I thought had little to no chance of winning. Like Big Brown in the Belmont, for instance.
Given sufficient time and motivation, and sticking to circuits I follow, I'd be able to do this.