[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by Ogygian

I have had the "Declining Beyer" conversation with Doud a few times...I told him last year the days of the 120 Beyers are gone, and I believe only Quality Road hit that last year, with very few even making it over 115. Now I'm no expert, but could it be possible that the "lower level" horses are getting better or faster??? The same 10K claimer today might be a better quality horse then 15 years ago...
Here is my logic...I had asked Doug why QR didn't have a huge beyer the day of his 6.5 1:14 and change race at Saratoga...his response...because the claimers 3 races earlier went 1:09 (Those arent exacts but close enough)...I believe Beyer needs to update his formula...
I find it odd the the Beyer number keeps getting lower and lower each year...at this pace, I wouldn't be shocked if in a few years 110 is the highest and horses going into the Derby are lucky to hit 95's

I'm at a loss for time right now so I probably won't do as good a job as I'd like in explaining this but I think it's not that the lower level horses are getting better or faster but that the lower level races are being populated more with horses that are borderline stakes horses. Every year, the best horse are retired prematurely and what that's meant is that each year, the quality gets worse and worse. Look at 2007 for example. We had Curlin, Street Sense, Hard Spun, Rags to Riches, Any Given Saturday, and Nobiz Like Shobiz from the 3yo crop. The next year, Curlin was the only one still in training. In the absence of the other top horses, somebody had to step in and fill in the spots as the top horses in the big races. Grade two and three horses became grade one horses. High level allowance horses became grade two and three horses, even the occasional grade one winner. Everyone moves up a couple of levels. There is no longer a huge difference between graded stakes caliber horses and the lower levels therefore, it makes it harder to stand out in performance.

Another thing that I think plays a part in the lower figures is the trend to have these "Super" cards where you have five or six stakes races on the same day. On a day when the big race is the only stake on the card, it's much easier for the winners to stand out from the rest of the card but when there are so many stakes, there is not the same separation.