[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by tector

We'll know more when he has a meaningful race on dirt.

By the way, to whomever thought value=absolutely huge odds (seemingly regardless to which animal they were attached), there are many horses still at 150-1 and up:

http://www.viewfromvegas.com/uploads...11-14-Wynn.pdf

Note this is updated through 11/14, so it reflects the racing last weekend.

Plainly, however, I should have done more research, since I now find out Luckys had KD futures up too:

http://www.viewfromvegas.com/uploads...-10-Luckys.pdf

Note this is updated through 11/10, so it does NOT reflect last weekend's racing.

I found the link to Luckys here:

http://www.viewfromvegas.com/Race_Book_Notes.html

If very recent history is any indication -- you might want to flirt around with something very lightly raced that won either a turf or synthetic route in fast time.

Big Brown won his debut by a pole on turf at Saratoga -- got the fastest Saratoga 2yo Turf Beyer of the decade. Barbaro ran a triple digit Beyer in a turf route as a 2yo in his 2nd start. He was the fastest 2yo turf horse since Incurable Optimist.

Even Animal Kingdom won his maiden race 2nd time out by a good margin running an 84 Beyer going 9 furlongs at Keeneland in October. Wise Dan's Presque Isle Mile was UNQUESTIONABLY the best performance by any horse at PID this year. He just crushed the Graded Stakes Fayette at 9fs by a wide margin and got only a 97 Beyer in victory. You're talking about an older male Graded Stakes winner dominant in wide margin victory -- only 13 points faster than a 2nd time starter 2yo attempting 9fs.

Any lightly raced 2yo who can run in the 100 range routing on the turf - or 85 range routing on synthetic - is worth a look. The less classier his beaten competion the better. In theory, surface should matter... but distance has suddenly become of MAJOR importance because of how lightly raced and trained these horses are now compared to even six years ago.