Quote:
Originally Posted by RolloTomasi
I think a big difference between the two horses is the 12f distance. Alternation is having to add 3 furlongs in a single jump, no mean feat.
Of course, you could counter that Drosselmeyer, like Alternation, a son of Distorted Humor, tackled the same obstacle successfully last year. But then again, neither the Kentucky Derby winner nor the Preakness winner ran in the Belmont last year.
With regards to progressive development, Alternation, contrary to what I've been saying, has gone through his available conditions (first and second level allowance wins). However, in my opinion, he's stalled at the stakes level, with a modest Arkansas Derby try and a less than emphatic win in the Peter Pan. He seems to have "upside" but at a slow incline.
I see it the other way. I think it's an advantage to have started in the other classics. Certainly "fresh" horses can win once in a while, but if you look at the names (ie D'Tara, Sarava) you're more apt to write those years off.
Despite their flaws, Animal Kingdom and Shackleford both ran well in the Derby and Preakness, and each had a strong prep race prior to the Triple Crown. Though its a weak crop, I don't think the Belmont Stakes is the free-for-all that some are anticipating. Animal Kingdom and Shackleford might be separating themselves from the rest (Nehro a possible add-on) at this point.
In the face of more dramatic hold-outs like Bernardini, Street Sense, Lookin At Lucky, Red Bullet, and Fusaichi Pegasus, I don't think this one is that big a deal.
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Alternation is no more or less qualified for the Belmont at this point in time than Fly Down was a year ago. His trainer went on At the Races last December and talked about how he thought he was a Classic type of horse. Now, perhaps he feels at this point that he's a bit behind or lacks the seasoning.
I understand the argument you're making and the fact that many more high profile horses have been held out of the Belmont. I think the difference was that they were all horses who were going to be well-backed whereas Alternation figured to be a viable mid-range type of longshot, sort of an "interesting" horse in the race.
As far as the distance question, they're all going to tackle an obstacle the likes of which haven't been seen thus far by a 3YO. Should a horse who is by a multiple classic producing sire out of a dam who won 3 times at 11 furlongs be considered likely to have trouble with 12 furlongs? I'd think not.