View Single Post
  #2  
Old 05-25-2011, 03:08 PM
ateamstupid's Avatar
ateamstupid ateamstupid is offline
Super Mod.. and Super Fly
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
Location: Brooklyn, NY
Posts: 13,036
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Kasept View Post
She's a Shadwell purchase, and you know their use of money is consistenty more judicious. I didn't bet the race other than use her (and others) in the P3's & P4, but Eric Donovan pointed in the right direction making her the second choice. I just can't see why you're making out like this was some stunning putover. She won by a couple lengths in 1:10.1. Likely a low/mid 80's Beyer, in line with natural development from 2 to 3. What's so shocking after she left the scene at 2 breaking her maiden with a 75?
My guess is closer to 90 today, and based on the field she beat in her maiden race, that 75 even looked a little generous. The bottom line is like I said, if it wasn't a McLaughlin horse, she would've been 10-1 or higher and most likely run like it.

To play this horse, you had to (a). completely disregard the poor field behind her in her maiden race, (b). assume she'd improve 10-15 points off an 8-month layoff and (c). assume this wasn't a tightener for something longer, considering she had last run at a mile and McLaughlin's layoff numbers. For all of that, you got 3-1. Things like that just make the race unplayable.
Reply With Quote