Quote:
Originally Posted by philcski
Because you WON'T be just getting your money back, even if it chalks out.
The takeout is 20%. So if there's $4 million bet in tomorrow, and $1.5 million in the carryover, there will be a $700k overlay on the payout- so you're playing with a ~20% bonus on the payoff, and that's just assuming the betting distribution will be "normal". Like you said, there will be tons of people playing even the most extreme combos (with Twinspires putting in $100k alone, they will have to spread extremely wide by necessity.) The chances of having a lone winning ticket tomorrow are virtually none. That is no longer the objective since the distribution is mandatory. It's taking advantage of the huge money already in the pool to hit a reasonable combo with a 20-25% bonus in the payoff. If that's not good enough for you, by all means waste your money today chasing absurd horses trying for the whole pool. Good luck.
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you were right....it sort of blew up in my face....but they scracthed alot of horses yesterday(2 or 3 in almost every race)...which made hitting it almost impossible...you have to use some ridiculous horses if you expect to hit it. i had the 11 in the 9th yesterday (withches orchard) at 46-1....just missed. so i just missed a pretty good score even though i blew some bankroll to get that far. i'm not a play it safe gambler.....my biggest scores have been by doing things everyone else is not...so i took a chance and it was wrong...oh well. i'll be like the rest of you partnering up and chasing the dream today. but i'm not putting anywhere near as much in as i did yesterday(by myself). you often get rewarded taking the path less traveled. was not meant to be this time. i call it what it is ....gambling.....if your not willing to take a gamble......why gamble? i know people think i'm crazy or dumb but i'll put my ability against anyone here...i can pick a race horse and smell a "bad" fave a mile away.....i could not live the way i do if i could not.....blackthroated...you know who i am and you know its true. i've been following this game since the 6th grade and you know it. gee, i wonder why i can't go to the simulcast without half the people asking me who i like. i must lose alot of money....no i don't...thats why most of you will be working next monday morning and i'll be heading to churchill. i'll be at saratoga every day as long as i'm healthy ....boy ....i really suck.....while i'm working on PHd...yeah i'm a moron too......