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Originally Posted by johnny pinwheel
its fun to talk about and all.......but how do you bet this race seriously?????have you seen the recent winners? this is everyones first mistake ...thinking this is a good betting race......it will be the worst that day(unless you get lucky and see something different or just plain get lucky), considering the undercard. the derby is about beating the fave (because the fave almost loses every time) and getting lucky. the best horse USUALLY has to be lucky just not to get hammered by other horses....what derby do people watch to assume the best horse wins????????? thats a rarity...every year i hear the same story...people have "annual" memory loss....take that, uncle mo we are giving you the 1 or 2 hole with the freak out horse next door....take that. at 9-5.........."oh, the chalk just got sawed off on the backstretch".....every dog has his day and thats the type of race it is........
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I can't agree with this assessment at all. The Derby is usually one of the best betting races of the year. Any race with 20 betting interests is bound to create overlays, generally the number of betting interests alone makes it a solid race to bet in. Further, there is no race with more stupid money bet into the pool, including tons of money dumped on horses with no chance to win by the clueless for sentimental reasons.
Even if there is a heavy favorite that is likely to win, as there clearly is at this point this year, that doesn't mean that specific pools can't be profitably attacked, such as exactas, tris and supers. Also, the claim that it is a rarity that the best horse wins is completely wrong, more often than not the best horse wins, traffic, post or whatnot. The 20 hole didn't seem to deter Big Brown from clearly showing he was the best horse. It is all about assessing a proper plan of attack to get value whether horzontally or vertically and properly singling or spreading depending on the likelihood of the favorite winning.