Quote:
Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS
I don't have Victory Gallop's first call Moss pace number - because he didn't win - but it would be in the high 30's to low 40's.
I hear what you're saying ... however ... the 11 Derby winners that ran a first call Moss Pace figure of 58 or higher accounted for 7 horses who won the Preakness next time out.
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I hand picked VG because horses with his style are the exception to the rule (the rule being first call MPF >58) and although he didn't win the derby, in terms of lengths beaten he came closer than any single winner of a TC race to take all three legs since '78, and closer than many who have won 2 of the 3 legs.
I would guess the projected first call MPF for Unbridled would have been below 58 and he came back to run a good yet unsuccessful 2nd to his main rival, very similar to VG when both were forced to be closer to the early pace which took away from their closing punch.
The only derby/preakness winner I can recall (since Affirmed) whose likely derby MPF was below 58 had to be Pleasant Colony. Perhaps Alysheba, I'm not sure how far back he was early on.
One other thought. If Bellamy Road ran an extremely underrated race Closing Argument should be included. (I hope Jon White doesn't read this before he goes on air.)