Quote:
Originally Posted by Linny
There has clearly been a decrease in the top to bottom quality of the BCJ since 2000.
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Not really. In addition to the classic colts: Macho Again, Street Cry, Burning Roma, City Zip, Scorpion, Dollar Bill, Noverre, Yonaguska (00); Repent, Publication, Came Home, Essence Of Dubai (01); Kafwain, Hold That Tiger, Zavata, Wando, Toccet (02); Sun King, Consolidator, Roman Ruler (04); Henny Hughes, Brother Derek, Private Vow (05); Circular Quay, Great Hunter, Scat Daddy, Stormello, King Of The Roxy, Teuflesberg (06); Pyro, Kodiak Kowboy, Tale Of Ekati (07); Munnings (08); Eskendereya, D'Funnybone (09) all came out to win Grade 1 or Grade 2 races subsequent to the Juvenile. Even the lowly '03 Juvenile had eventual Grade 1 turf horse Relaxed Gesture.
Certainly in the last few years some colts and fillies have bucked tradition (eg Curlin, Big Brown, Bernardini, Rags To Riches) but I hardly think it was necessarily by design. Physical issues seemed to hold those types back more than anything.
Going by this year's waif-like BC Juvenile, your theory would seem more sound. But if trainers were really "holding back" then you'd anticipate that races like the Remsen and Kentucky Jockey Club would have been deep, contentious races. That wasn't the case.
Instead, it looks like it will simply be a lean year. The reason for the odd campaigning this year by certain trainers (Pletcher, Asmussen, Dutrow) was probably a consequence of distinct physical problems with individual horses (Kantharos, perhaps Boys Of Toscanova), not an attempt to get to the Classics (8 months later) in a new, unorthodox manner.